Angels Starting Pitching Comparables

by Xeifrank on Dec 23, 2011 11:41 PM PST

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Angels top starting pitchers: Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, Ervin Santana.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Angels starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Angels starter. Some NL pitchers would of course have to be slightly penalized for getting to face pitchers, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
1	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80	Madison Bumgarner	7.90	2.05	1.30
2	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18	Ricky Nolasco	7.30	1.91	1.22
3	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80
4	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
5	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
6	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
7	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
8	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
9	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
10	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
11	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
12	Madison Bumgarner	7.90	2.05	1.30	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.70
14	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
15	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
16	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
17	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
18	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
19	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
20	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
21	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91
22	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
23	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
24	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
25	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
1	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
2	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
3	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
4	A.J. Burnett	7.60	3.85	1.35	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
5	Derek Holland	7.61	3.20	1.30	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
6	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
7	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.40	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
8	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
9	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
10	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
11	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
12	Ryan Dempster	8.60	3.62	1.27	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
13	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
14	James McDonald	7.80	3.90	0.86	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
15	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
16	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.90	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
17	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
18	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
19	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.30	1.05	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
20	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
21	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
22	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
23	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
24	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
25	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

LOLackey

"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana

by Chzburger Jones on Dec 24, 2011 3:59 AM PST reply actions

Nice work - fun list to look at

Takeaways:

Scott Baker is really underrated
CJ Wilson might be a little overrated (but there’s still Price on his list, so it’s not crazy)
Ervin Santana is just what we thought he was: good, but not great

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Dec 24, 2011 6:41 AM PST reply actions

My takeaway:

Everybody is like everybody else. Too many comparisons. This reads like a list of baseball’s fifty best pitchers.

Good start though. As you suggested, perhaps the next few steps will whittle down the lists and make them more meaningful.

by Rock Island Line on Dec 24, 2011 7:01 AM PST reply actions

with Xiefrank, it is always quantity over quality, lots of quantity.

I think he gets his jollies off just watching his computer spit out endless data.

"One time, when we got back to the locker room, all of our clothes were gone," Trout recalled. "They left me a Lady Gaga costume and I had to wear it."

by 44FAN on Dec 24, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions

My takeaway

The better pitchers have lower walk rates and higher strikeout rates. Nothing new, but it’s nice to see weaver amongst those big names.

i have a trumboner.

by truhalo on Dec 24, 2011 8:28 AM PST via mobile reply actions

Wilson walks a lot.

by Barca on Dec 24, 2011 8:32 AM PST reply actions

lots of ground balls though

=GIDP

Well, come see a fat old man some time!

by Moondoggy on Dec 24, 2011 8:35 AM PST up reply actions

Am I supposed to conclude

that the four closest comps to our front four are Scott Baker, Madison Bumgarner, Chad Billingsley and Phil Hughes?
Maybe I’m not reading your analysis correctly, but I think I prefer what we have!

by Seraphan on Dec 24, 2011 10:11 AM PST reply actions

it means

their peripherals over the last two years are very similar. You can make your own conclusions. :)

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Dec 24, 2011 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

very surprised by colby lewis's k/9 and bb/9

I guess it’s the fly balls that cause him some trouble in texas

very underrated pitcher

"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black

by the king of CERA on Dec 24, 2011 10:47 AM PST reply actions

CJ Wilson is second in GB to FB only to Wainwright

Yeah, we should just keep Callaspo’s glove at third.

"Baseball is beautiful. It is the only sport in which you can fail 70% of the time and still be considered the greatest player"

by Halos2011champs on Dec 24, 2011 12:09 PM PST reply actions

I think we should trade for Longoria

wait…what?…already been covered in detail?

Never mind.

"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells

by George Kaplan on Dec 25, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions