(Sorry for the FJM style response, but you made a number of assertions I wanted to address)

To rank prospects exclusively based on the likelihood that they’ll turn into Justin Verlander or Prince Fielder misses a large part of the picture.

There’s a middle path. The chances of contributing are clearly important, but the quality of potential contribution is far more important to me than the sheer chance of seeing a player appear in a MLB game. I don’t think anyone would really accuse me of ranking purely on ceiling here. My list is not organized on ceiling alone.

Your justification for comparing Amarista to Jimenez seems hand-wavey at best, especially after asserting that Jimenez has no power to boast of.

I brought up the comp. in direct response to the assertion that Jimenez was well thought of because he was on the 40 man. How is that “hand-wavey?”

Also, where the heck did I do anything like “[assert] that Jimenez has no power to boast of.”…? That’s not at all what I said. That’s an exaggeration.

He has power and he can hit.

“…Luis can certainly be a big league 3rd baseman.”

This was hardly the ringing endorsement you make it seem and its very rare you find a SD with a negative take on a guy in his system. Not to be flippant, but you just can’t expect honest and forthright analysis from a team employee on the record. This is one step removed from a quote from his mom. Even if the guy stunk you can’t expect him to say so.

If anything, his untranslated numbers are pessimistic, as Dickey Stephens is an extreme pitcher’s park. Lucho’s park-adjusted wOBA last season was .381 — well above his unadjusted numbers. He had a 20% line drive rate and hit 40 doubles last season, which tells you more about his promise than his HR numbers in Arkansas.

Minor league LD% = completely useless. Not worth looking at. The scoring is wildly inconsistent and the data isn’t useful. In some years some leagues have even been recorded as averaging single digit LD%s. The record keeping just isn’t there for this to be useful.

Dickey Stephens plays as a pitchers park but actually has a fairly reasonably LF power alley and line, which helps a RH pull hitter like Jimenez. Not that he’s getting any boost from it – its just not as unfair as you’d initially believe looking at park factors. Meanwhile, the rest of the Texas League IS very hitter friendly and Jimenez slugged .459 at home but bouyed his stats by slugging .509 on the road. Only 5 of his 18 HRs were at home.

Ryan Ghan does a good job deconstructing that in this profile.

That’s a very well done piece. I’m not sure where you see this as disagreeing with what I’ve been told.

Ryan’s conclusions:

Lucho lacks the first baseman’s plus-plus raw pop and in-game power to all fields. He’s more of a pull-oriented hitter who takes aggressive hacks off of his front foot, launching balls consistently into the air across the left half of the field.

…he plants on his front foot and uses that as a base to adjust to pitch type and location, but the “front foot” hitting mechanics might limit his HR power.

…while he doesn’t have that one plus plus tool like a Bourjos or a Trumbo, he has a variety of solid to above average baseball skills and an outstanding feel for the game…. I think he sneaks up on everyone and carves out a role for himself in the majors, though I’m not sure what that role will look like.

Ryan seems to not so much disagree with the assertion that Jimenez’s power is a problem. He concedes as much. He’s arguing instead that a) power is no longer a necessity at the 3B position these days (with which I generally agree, but Jimenez’s lack of patience combined with a lack of power really hurts); and b) that Jimenez has a solid enough collection of skills that he will find a major league role despite the flaws in his game (with which I don’t necessarily disagree – I’d just take some toolsy, high ceiling types first).

He actually sums up my concerns pretty well. Not a fan of his swing – lots of guys find some success in the minors as dead pull guys and fall apart against big leaguers. His swing leaves him very susceptible to breaking balls and soft stuff away – with which he already has a problem. As I stated above, his impatience and pitch recognition will also detract from his raw power. I don’t know that his usable power will even grade out as average. 15 HR territory seems possible.

SO: Good defender with a lack of secondary skills (patience & power). Solid prospect – but nothing special and certainly not any kind of lock for my top 15. I’m not saying he’s a “bust” or anything – he just missed my list. I think he can be a useful player but I’m pretty skeptical he’ll be a major league regular on a first division club.

As far as Amarista goes, his walks exceeded his Ks in his first two seasons, and were nearly equivalent in A ball. His only truly poor season was in AAA, where he was clearly making adjustments to an abnormal park environment. He put up a .390 OBP at Cedars, hardly a hitter-friendly environment. His K rate outside of the PCL (where he was one of the youngest players in the league) has been markedly low, so suggesting that he has poor plate discipline seems well off the mark.

The fact he’s hard to strike out doesn’t change the fact he “doesn’t walk much.” I see a poor approach player who puts the ball in play a lot. He put up high OBPs when he hit for high AVGs. His walk rates were still sub par and I don’t expect him to provide much in the way of walks in the majors.