FanPost

Angels vs Royals, Opening Day Simulation

Let's jump into our time machine and it is March 31st, North African unrest has spread to Lookout Landing removing the last set of SB Nation dictators and it is opening day with the Angels finding themselves on the road playing the Kansas City Royals. The opening day starters are likely to be Jered Weaver vs Luke Hochevar and here is how my simulator handicaps the game. Lineups and depth charts are taken from MLBDepthCharts.com and I know that some players (K.Morales) may not be ready by opening day. I ran the likely lineups through my baseball simulator for 100K games. Below are a detailed look at the results for us baseball boxscore starved fans. Keep in mind that my simulator takes into account such things as home field advantage, park factors, splits, defense, base running prowess and a proprietary set of player projections among a few other things.

PlayerPos PlayerPos
Angels Royals
Maicer Izturis 3B   Melky Cabrera CF
Bobby Abreu DH   Mike Aviles 3B
Torii Hunter RF   Billy Butler DH
Kendry Morales 1B   Kila Kaaihue 1B
Vernon Wells LF   Alex Gordon LF
Howie Kendrick 2B   Jeff Francoeur RF
Erick Aybar SS   Brayan Pena C
Jeff Mathis C   Chris Getz 2B
Peter Bourjos CF   Alcides Escobar SS



... And now the results!

AwayHome  FavoriteWin ProbOver/Under
LAA KC Jered Weaver Luke Hochevar LAA 59.07% 8.55



No surprise as it looks like the Angels will be a solid favorite on the road in the season opener, but of course anything can happen.

Here is the hitters boxscore(s)

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBABABIP
Maicer Izturis 4.533 1.329 0.781 0.412 0.033 0.102 0.478 0.363 0.704 0.353 0.329
Bobby Abreu 4.231 1.264 0.755 0.329 0.024 0.156 0.547 0.592 0.928 0.385 0.352
Torii Hunter 4.343 1.246 0.775 0.303 0.007 0.16 0.606 0.359 0.826 0.352 0.323
Kendry Morales 4.208 1.265 0.751 0.338 0.017 0.159 0.657 0.386 0.681 0.372 0.328
Vernon Wells 4.182 1.202 0.68 0.319 0.025 0.178 0.68 0.304 0.682 0.359 0.308
Howie Kendrick 4.158 1.311 0.804 0.373 0.051 0.082 0.532 0.214 0.7 0.362 0.364
Erick Aybar 4.004 1.15 0.761 0.259 0.079 0.052 0.446 0.262 0.637 0.333 0.331
Jeff Mathis 3.889 0.909 0.584 0.238 0.015 0.072 0.417 0.268 0.825 0.283 0.28
Peter Bourjos 3.866 1.023 0.647 0.256 0.061 0.06 0.414 0.185 0.726 0.307 0.313
                       
Melky Cabrera 4.263 1.14 0.698 0.327 0.057 0.059 0.358 0.305 0.756 0.319 0.314
Mike Aviles 4.237 1.244 0.831 0.297 0.021 0.095 0.435 0.21 0.727 0.334 0.336
Billy Butler 4.049 1.177 0.716 0.332 0.004 0.126 0.505 0.33 0.764 0.353 0.333
Kila Kaaihue 3.963 0.999 0.678 0.209 0.014 0.098 0.429 0.359 0.917 0.31 0.306
Alex Gordon 3.806 1.002 0.627 0.237 0.014 0.124 0.472 0.413 0.928 0.337 0.319
Jeff Francoeur 3.824 1.017 0.672 0.22 0.015 0.11 0.437 0.23 0.825 0.316 0.314
Brayan Pena 3.676 0.907 0.65 0.223 0.005 0.028 0.288 0.268 0.822 0.283 0.311
Chris Getz 3.607 0.932 0.597 0.236 0.048 0.052 0.347 0.267 0.693 0.309 0.308
Alcides Escobar 3.549 0.905 0.616 0.198 0.053 0.038 0.323 0.181 0.681 0.291 0.306



And the pitchers boxscore

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Jered Weaver 6.396 5.274 1.652 6.738 0.545 99.864 3.434
Fernando Rodney 0.481 0.36 0.181 0.49 0.03 7.691 3.657
Scott Downs 0.404 0.288 0.104 0.426 0.025 6.231 3.353
Kevin Jepsen 0.602 0.484 0.252 0.614 0.033 9.812 3.565
Jordan Walden 0.297 0.249 0.129 0.31 0.028 4.901 4.058
Hisanori Takahashi 0.433 0.316 0.159 0.477 0.043 7.003 4.141
Rich Thompson 0.216 0.134 0.079 0.251 0.023 3.496 4.47
Bobby Cassevah 0.016 0.008 0.007 0.018 0.001 0.261 4.256
               
Luke Hochevar 5.9 4.097 1.755 7.014 0.696 94.648 4.238
Joakim Soria 0.39 0.418 0.073 0.357 0.023 5.929 2.372
Blake Wood 0.451 0.322 0.144 0.523 0.051 7.259 4.202
Robison Tejeda 0.759 0.675 0.272 0.806 0.069 12.341 3.673
Tim Collins 0.453 0.321 0.19 0.534 0.053 7.547 4.568
Jeremy Jeffress 0.914 0.641 0.385 1.053 0.08 15.143 4.203
Jesse Chavez 0.332 0.232 0.112 0.405 0.049 5.435 4.749
Kanekoa Texeira 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.006 0 0.087 3.739

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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