Little Splash Could Save Our Season

Like many of you, I've had my fingers crossed for a Scott Kazmir rebound season. After all, he started working out earlier this off-season, is no longer battling injuries, and has had months to clear his mind of the abortion that was his 2010 campaign. Through it all, I was cautiously optimistic, at best. However, Kaz's performance this spring has moved me from cautiously optimistic to disgusted and realistic... The dude is done. Oliver Perez 2.0, done.

Kazmir's once blazing heater is now in the 85-89 range, and the only thing keeping him from getting completely crushed is the fact he can't find the strike zone enough for hitters to tee off on him. In his four spring starts he is posting a 6.56 BB/9 to go with his 4.38 K/9. He's also allowing over a hit per inning to give him a cool 1.95 WHIP. If this guy makes 30+ starts for the Halos in 2011 there is no way they're playing in October. Add that Joel Pineiro is already dealing with an injury and the Halos could have a complete drop off after Weaver, Haren & Ervin.

I'm big on Trevor Bell, and think he could be a solid arm in the rotation in the near future, but I'm not convinced he is ready to make 30+ starts. The Halos could use another dependable arm in the rotation (and it's not Matt Palmer).

A recent article on MLBTR suggests the Twins have named Scott Baker their #5 starter and are looking to part with Kevin Slowey for a bullpen arm. If there is one position the Halos have a little depth, it's in the bullpen. There are literally 10 arms in the system that can contribute at the major league level. Given the lack of a natural fit of a trade partner for Minnesota, the Twinkies might very well part with Slowey for a Rich Thompson or a Jason Bulger. Don't hold me to that as I'm not entirely sure what Minnesota's asking price would be, but it seems feasible that it would be fairly modest for a guy who has posted ERAs in the mid to upper 4's the last couple of years (although his peripherals say he pitched much better).

How much value would Slowey bring?

The last three seasons Slowey has posted WAR of 3.0, 1.4, and 2.2. It should be noted that had he tossed about 160 innings in 2009 as he did in '08 and '10, he would have posted a 1.9 WAR. I took Bill James FIP projection for Slowey in 2011 and applied to another 160 inning season. James projects Slowey for another 2.2 WAR season. At this point, I firmly believe that is a solid 2 wins better than the season we can expect from Kazmir.

What are the financial implications?

Slowey avoided arbitration this off-season settling on a 1-year deal for $2.7MM (2.2 WAR = ~$11MM on the market). He is under team control for two more season's after 2011. Turning 27 this May, you have to think Slowey is due to improve as a major league pitcher over the next couple of seasons making him a nice candidate to step into the #4 spot upon Pineiro's departure following this season. Pineiro, by the way, posted a 2.5 WAR last season, and is set for another 2.5 WAR season in '11 according to James, so Slowey would be an equally productive, yet considerably cheaper replacement.

Summary

It seems realistic that the Halos could not only upgrade their rotation for this season, but fill the #4 spot for the next three seasons with a quality arm under team control, all at the cost of a bullpen arm or two. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting we package up Walden and Jepsen for Slowey. But, if a Bulger/F-Rod type of package would get the deal done, I'd pull the trigger.