We've Been Playing .500 Ball Since Aug. 19, 2009
by mattwelch on Jun 9, 2011 4:20 PM PDT
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PrintSo, as someone was pointing out the other day, I used to do these "the Angels have been playing .600 baseball for X00 games!" posts, the last of which came on July 30, 2009 (perhaps tellingly, my last day as a 40-year-old), at which point the team had been winning 3 out of 5 for an astonishing 541 games, from May 17, 2006-onward. The exact starting point would differ according to the iron laws of mathematics, but the basic vibe was that either since May of that year, when Mike Napoli emerged as the starting catcher after the failed (ha!) Jeff Mathis experiment; or since July of that year, when Jered Weaver was finally ensconsed in the rotation for good, the Angels in 2006 stopped playing like ass, and started unleashing some serious WTF on the American League. The team went 72-45 after May 22, 54-29 after June 30, then followed that up with an average of 97 wins the next 3 seasons.
As I wrote in that July 30, 2009 post:
There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether we'll win 37 of the next 62 games, but at this point those who bet against it might start pondering whether the burden of proof lies with them, and not us.
The Angels, of course, won 37 of the next 62 games.
When all was said and done the 2006ish-2009 Angels ended up playing .600 ball for a total of 605 games, or 3.7 seasons. To put that in perspective, the following franchises have never finished a season with a .600 winning percentage -- Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Florida Marlins. It was just a damned good baseball team there for a nice long stretch. We'll probably never see its likes around here again.
How long has the current team been frustratingly mediocre? Well, let's do the .600 exercise in reverse. This year's 30-34 after last year's 80-82 gets us 6 games under .500 since the glory days passed us by. Walking 2009 results backward we see the team closed out a 97-win season with a 26-20 finish. Which means that since the morning of Aug. 19, 2009, the Angels have played .500 baseball over 272 games. And the trend lines are more ominous than that, too -- .565 to finish 2009, .494 for 2010, and .469 so far this year.
As happens frequently in both baseball and life, participants are often the last to discover that their status has suffered a devastating blow. It took Johnny Rotten in the sucktastic '70s to deliver England the news that it was "just another country," decades after it was obvious to everyone else. The Angels still think of themselves as an elite baseball team, but they're just not. One of many reasons why this might be Mike Scioscia's most interesting managing seasons yet.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Well at least I can say I was there for the Golden Years.
I should have appreciated it more than I did.
My response to your letter of February 19, 1976, is - kiss my ass.
Sincerely,
Bill Baxley, Attorney General
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Jun 9, 2011 4:39 PM PDT reply actions
90-91: Pitching and no hitting...
What makes you think the Angels think they are an elite team. Is that quoted somewhere? Just asking.
Or are you assuming that because of the bloated payroll…I think Mike Scioscia probably knows this isnt one of his strongest squads.
dissenter, dubious and devil's advocate to blog monitors everywhere.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jun 9, 2011 4:39 PM PDT reply actions
It's more *organization* than 2011 squad, but I think we still think we're the best team in the Div
Fine line between necessary self-confidence and unhelpful self-delusion. I think we’ve crossed it.
Agree with you about 90-91.
i think the difference is all in 'hope'
in the dark ages of the organization we had a loser attitude, now we have a winning should be expected attitude.
How come when players go to Texas they revitalize their careers? could it be the roids?
by Sinatrasratpack on Jun 10, 2011 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
That's a good point, and a good thing.
Trust the Deception
by Rally Manatee on Jun 11, 2011 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't feel qualified to answer the poll
because I wasn’t around during the 60s and 70s. I was in high school during the 90-91 seasons and remember losing a lot of games despite having good pitching, the stadium being half empty, and very little run support.
This summer is making me feel like a kid again.
I suspect you aren't alone
I’m probably older than the average Halos Heaven reader, but I was a toddler in 1973. Choosing between 1991 and 1998, I went with the 1991 period. The Angels have two acceptable offensive players, Hunter and Abreu, who are over 35 and clearly on the decline. The late 90’s team had Salmon, Anderson, Edmonds, Erstad, Glaus in the minors – a strong offensive core to build around. The early 90’s team had one big fish in the minors – Salmon, and this team has a Trout.
The early 90’s team had Abbott, Finley, and Langston pitching great with no support, Weaver and Haren know all about that. The clincher is that a general manager who thinks getting Vernon Wells was what this offense needed is the same sort of mind that thought Von Hayes and Hubie Brooks were the answers in 1991.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
by RallyMonkey5 on Jun 10, 2011 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
This is what I went with
I remember the late 90’s, early 00’s (before 2002, obviously) as having bursts of offense, but generally mediocre to poor pitching. The early ’90’s, on the other hand, was the opposite. Good pitching that was supported by piss-poor hitting.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
You are doing it wrong Matt
This is not what I was referencing. I said I liked your we have been playing .600 ball posts!
I'd like to DFA Reagins
It was I who pointed out that I liked the post
I enjoyed this one as well. Although it is not a pick me up like th e.600 ball columns. Not your fault.
I'd like to DFA Reagins
Interesting insight, as always.
So, I’ll ask you the begged badgered question: Why?
Yeah, I realize the answer could be a complete dissertation. Maybe just give us the abstract? A paragraph?
Your depth of familiarity with the history of this team has got to add interesting color to your view of what’s happening here and now.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
^This!!^
I too would appreciate your insight.
"Every time I think I’m out, they pull me back in" -George Costanza
by Howie's Batting Title on Jun 9, 2011 5:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Ask the pessimists who had it right
Turks Teeth, Suboptimal, etc. Though I never had strong faith in the 2010 team, those gents & others were basically calling it like it was before I took off the rose-colored glasses.
BUT, short answer: Success curse. When you win, especially with a significant spending premium over your competition, it’s awful difficult not to fall in love with the smell of your own farts. That takes the sharp edge off of the competitive drive to always be improving. On some basic level, any organization who in the 21st century concludes that one good Arlington season for Gary Matthews Jr. is reason enough to give him $50 mil for the pleasure of watching his 30s is an organization with ginormous analytical flaws spreading across the system.
They’ve also suffered mightily from losing the previous regime’s ability to build a great bullpen on the cheap out of spare parts. Soth inherited a team with phenomenal defense and bullpens, and watched both assets steadily erode (while becoming exponentially more expensive) over time.
That, plus an inability to harvest position players into stars, and a few much-discussed blind spots, mostly.
Though at the time, I just considered it realism, not pessimism.
I was stoked and riding high 2004-2008 like most everybody else, though doubts were seeded with a string of bad drafts and the GMJ acquisition.
Definitely agree with your assessment on cheap bullpens, and how the org squandered that asset in the late half of the decade.
My own cliff notes version of the decline: we failed to go cheap, young and deep and went pricey, old and dicey.
The luxury of Arte’s wallet actually hurt in the end — it’s a truism that innovation thrives under constraint, but that’s because it’s mostly true. With no real budget ceiling, the Angels spent on unnecessary, stupid shit, and bought all the blurbs about their exquisite farm system, all while draining it of its blood. Now the depth is largely gone, and broken horses block what young bucks we have.
If late August 2009 is the pivot point of suck, is it overloading a symbol to point out that late August 2009 is when we acquired Kazmir?
Ah well. One more time, for the ladies:
Fire Reagins!
Added sad note: I don’t see much on the immediate horizon to return to that .600 winning percentage.This is so unfortunate because;
1) Arte is fAntastic at marketing.
2) 2010 was a great marketing opportunity with the all-star game.
3) 2011 was another great marketing opportunity with the 50th year anniversary of the franchise founding.
4) The Dodgers have essentially imploded.
This could be a period of significant inroads into the greater LA market with a more consistent and successful franchise. So much for that.
Reagins isn’ t responsible for Morales, Matthews and Speier, but he is responsible for Kazmir, Wells, Rodney, and (maybe) Takahashi (and yes, he deserves credit for Hunter and Haren).
It hurts to say, but this franchise deserves better than what Reagins has delivered.
i don't think Arte is competing against the Dodgers
as much as he is competing against affordable Orange County family events and places. Downtown Disney draws more of his potential customers than Chavez Ravine.
He has stated on numerous occasions that filling the stadium requires appealing to mom, who controls the purse-strings in SoCal households. A family friendly environment is what makes him money, The hardcore base like you and me, we are actually more of a headache to the organization than anything close to being valued or marketed towards.
And THAT is just a shame.
The hardcore base of every team? THEY are the fans. Mom and the toddlers typically aren’t fans, they just need something to do to relieve their terrible twos on a Sunday afternoon. Those of us who, for at least ten years, if not more, have been diehards of the Angels? WE are the fans.
Those of us who are on our feet screaming because Jordan Walden keeps burning it into the corner of the plate at 101? WE are the fans. Those of us who try to start groups of fans devoted to one player? WE are the fans. Those of us who make videos of us tearfully tearing open boxes that contain Mike Napoli bobbleheads? WE are the fans. Those of us who actually know what a run batted in is, and don’t continually and annoyingly ask it whilst screaming over their tantrum-prone two year old? WE are the fans.
It’s sick that Arte considers us a headache. And if we’re such a headache, let’s start being a migraine, so that he can’t ignore it any more.
"Erstad says he's got it, Erstad...MAKES THE CATCH! The Anaheim Angels are the champions of baseball!" - Rory Markas, October 27, 2002
by Of Maicer and Men on Jun 9, 2011 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Moms taking the kids to games is where us hardcore types get started on this addiction. For a kid, all it takes is one magical game, or some event at a particular game.
You are already hooked. There’s no further point in trying to get you to sample the product.
Exactly.
But what I’m saying is that Arte can’t just shut out us hardcore types. We’re here and we’re loud. We’re the ones chanting “GORGEOUS BOURJOS” over and over in center field until he turns around and waves at us. We’re the ones carrying on conversation with relievers in the bullpen. We’re the ones that get loud and get involved.
What I’m saying is that Arte needs to realize this: Mom and the kids are not the only Angels fans that exist. We hardcores exist, too, and he needs to recognize that we’re here and appeal to us as well.
"Erstad says he's got it, Erstad...MAKES THE CATCH! The Anaheim Angels are the champions of baseball!" - Rory Markas, October 27, 2002
by Of Maicer and Men on Jun 9, 2011 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions
You damn junkies are all alike...
…just can’t ever give you a big enough fix.
Okay, just kidding.
Arte’s goal is to attract a wider fan base. He doesn’t get much bang for the buck with those of us that aren’t questioning where to spend out time/energy/dollars. We are already flopping around in the creel.
His recognition of the need for our continued support? Garden gnomes…
Now get back out there and give Wells and Rodney some applause.
Mount Vernon and the Red Bull?
Please. The only clap they’ll get is from a slump-buster on the road in Baltimore.
"Erstad says he's got it, Erstad...MAKES THE CATCH! The Anaheim Angels are the champions of baseball!" - Rory Markas, October 27, 2002
by Of Maicer and Men on Jun 9, 2011 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Arte, for the most part, CAN shut you out
Because you’ll still come. Unless he does something crazy to alienate all of the hardcore fans (and I struggle to think of something crazy enough to qualify), they’ll grumble while they shell out money for season tickets. You will yell and shout and call for change, but at the end of the day, you’ll still be there is section 224 with a bag of peanuts hoping that Hunter doesn’t ground into another freaking double play.
Instead, Arte focuses on creating a new generation of Angels fans by appealing to the parents and the kids, who may not be as hardcore. As a parent, I appreciate that. I want my boys to grow up Angels fans, and it’s great that Arte has kept it possible to make going to a ballgame a family affair.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
At some point Arte is going to want a better TV deal and realize that family friendly losers don't get very good TV ratings.
Pollyanna is dead. But don't get mad at me, I didn't kill her. Tony Reagins did.
agree wholeheartly(sic)
2011, it's going to be a heck of year!!
by salmonforever on Jun 10, 2011 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree on on the appeal to Moms.
I half agree, half disagree on competing with the Dodgers. I don’t believe he’s attempting to compete directly with the Dodgers, but I believe he wants a larger fan base that includes the greater LA area. That explains the name change and the amount of advertising in the LA area.
Some of those disgruntled Dodger Moms could have become Angel Moms…in fact, some probably have. The number probably would be greater with a better product on the field the last 1 1/3 years.
Then that is in error.
When you stop competing for the wallets of single young men, and when you stop competing for the wallets of dads & grand-dads, and when you stop competing for the purse strings of single women, you forfeit the opportunity to make your product even more scarce during the high times, or even scarce at all during the lean times when it otherwise wouldn’t be. Scarcity floats prices. Prices fund talent. Talent can overcome stupid GM’s.
LA is important. It exists as a source for increased competitive pressure on the local fan base for greater revenues, even during lean times. I agree with Soth: Arte may never see such a perfect confluence of marketing opportunity in the history of his ownership. And Carpino (with his gutting of the marketing department) and Reagins (in ways we know well) are defecating all over that opportunity.
Baseball is a simple business. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to run a pro ballclub. Arte ain’t a stupid man. So he has no excuse. His failure to drive a senior management team to maximize/realize this rare window is a business error that he shall eternally own. I just hope that he doesn’t pin the blame on us down the road (ala Georgia Frontiere a couple of decades ago).
"...the error of age is to believe that experience is a substitute for intelligence." - Lymon Bryson (1888-1959) pulling a Nostradomus on Torii Hunter's baserunning ass.
This
Males, particularly the young and single variety, are the most likely to purchase ticket plans, show up regularly, buy multiple drinks and food items, and throw down the cash for the playoffs and other big games. There is a segment of the female population and some families that will do this too, but the single guy who goes to the game with his buddies or his girlfriend is a pretty significant force.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Jun 10, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Given all the California Moms I always see wearing Mathis jerseys at the stadium...
I think I finally understand this organization.
Television
While the moms may control the household purse strings for things such as tickets to the game, concessions and souvenirs, it’s really the more hardcore fans that sothball describes who spend a couple of hours watching the game at home on a Tuesday night, and who might even stay up late to watch the replay if it was a particularly good game or if we missed some action. Or if we just haven’t bothered to change the channel by the time of the re-broadcast. It’s the hardcore fans who see the commercials and decide that we really do need to upgrade to that 55" LED from Howard’s, or go grab a can of Silver Bullet for a Cold Hard Blast, or put some more money in that CD at OneWest bank. These days, sporting events (mostly baseball games) are the only programs I watch live; everything else goes on the DVR so I can watch at my leisure and fast-forward through all of the commercials.
However, I find myself not watching the games, and therefore not watching the commercials, if the Angels are behind by a run or two. I watch something else for a while if I see that Mathis is due up next inning.
by jjackflash on Jun 10, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So true
These days, sporting events (mostly baseball games) are the only programs I watch live; everything else goes on the DVR so I can watch at my leisure and fast-forward through all of the commercials.
If (insert show here) is on at 9, that means we’re starting at 9:15.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Jun 10, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Didn't get to this comment before I wrote a short one above about TV ratings.
I could have just rec’d this as save my fingers from some unnecessary typing.
Pollyanna is dead. But don't get mad at me, I didn't kill her. Tony Reagins did.
Just curious...
Is it fair to say that all pessimists think they’re just being realistic?
you nailed it
the delusion of the optimist is that they have found the best of all possible worlds
the conceit of the pessimist is that they are stuck in the best of all possible worlds
Don't buy it.
“Best” and “worst” that is.
By realist, I mean just describing what is happening as it is happening, and trying not to spin it for the benefit of a quick rush or a good vibe.
If things pretty much turned out how the “pessimists” said they would, the pessimists weren’t pessimistic in the end — they were just journalists without protocols or house effects.
"Success curse"
I like that. In my business, my company has been on top… but, there is only one way to go from the top … DOWN. That’s why you always have to “stay hungry” … treat customers as if you are still fighting for their business, even when you are far and away the best in the business.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Jun 10, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
It took Johnny Rotten in the sucktastic ’70s to deliver England the news that it was “just another country,” decades after it was obvious to everyone else.
great line
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some douche named DFA from AN
Coincidence?
Stoneman, along with Scioscia, I think were the near-perfect tandem of knowledge regarding pitchers. Throwing Arte’s heavy wallet at the situaion clouded their previously astute vision. The availability of that same purse has caused Reagins and some of his advisors to go blind; many of us know people who don’t know how to spend money wisely, either personally and/or professionally.
Regarding GMJr and some others, having the steroid era conclude is not something anticipated or understood before it happened.
it is not htat they did not re-sign Vlad
it is that there was no vlad-like bat to replace Vlad’s bat with, not even Vlad’s bat itself.
We'll be back, it's just a phase
In 2005, Buster Olney wrote a book The Night the Dynasty Died, occurring in November 2001 when the Diamondbacks upset the perennial Yankee championships going back to 1996.
2009 was a great year for us in relative terms, coming within 2 games of the World Series, but I’d quasi-agree with Matt in that this dynasty died in the 1st inning of the 1st game of the 2009 ALCS when that pop up landed between Figgins and Aybar.
Of course the Yanks went on to win it all that year, so their drought was 9 years. Indeed, we are in dry times, going back to 2002 for the spoiled band wagon, or 2009 when long suffering fans would have concluded winning an ALDS against the Red Sox, then taking the Yanks to 6 games in the ALCS was a good year.
I can remember when even .500 was considered ‘good’.
We aren’t going well right now so I won’t kid myself, but I also know we aren’t that far away either. It may just be a few months, or it may be a few years, but this Arte/Scioscia team will bring another Ring back to Anaheim before too long.
I'm down for that.
We would be in good shape right now but for Torii’s GIDPs and Vernon’s inability to hit (so far) this season….We’ve been sooooo close. If this is just a phase, not a trend, we can still win our division this season. Then, we’ll have put ourselves into a position for which the pitching staff was built.
I should be drinking a toast to absent friends
instead of these comedians.
It was a tough break, that's all. How did I know I was shooting up a police car?
Mets/Cubs West?
I don’t want to me a chicken little here, but I am a little concerned.
I see a number of factors with the Cubs and Mets that are playing themselves out here as well.
Underperforming players
Unfortunate Injuries
Terrible Personnel Moves
Killer Contracts that limit flexibility
During the 2000s, one of the marks of the Halos was smart personnel moves.
Where we have it better than the Mets in spades is in pitching, we have a Trout in the pipeline and to the best of my knowledge Moreno has never done business with Bernie Madoff.
So, maybe its nowhere near this bad, but I throw out this analogy, partly to be provocative, because if we keep making boneheaded moves in our front office, this will be our future. Simply spending money is not the mark of a good owner, rather it’s how wisely you spend that money. Both the Mets and Cubs suck now, because they got stuck in this turnstile of bad contracts, bad luck and bad players.
The fact that our payroll is at 140 million and we have a .500 team absolutely sucks.
hey if we are playing .500
Ball that means I can finally afford good seats Haha :D
Now that is what I call a fish.
by Alavel on Jun 10, 2011 9:33 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Man this is getting me pumped to see the team in a week
Interesting stuff Matt, as always. Just depressing.
To be fair, the Halos have been snakebit with RISP and the bases loaded.
Without providing all the boring calculations here, if the Angels hit with RISP and with the bases loaded the way they’ve hit otherwise, they would have scored about 28 more runs this year. Which would have vaulted them from 11th in the AL all the way to…9th. OK, don’t laugh.
But seriously, those additional runs, when plugged into a Pythag calculation, would have the Angels at 35-29 (current Pythag is 31-33). Not superhuman, but at least tied for 1st.
I agree that this team, as currently constructed, ain’t so hot. But the hitters have been hitting better than the results have shown. 7 players have an OPS+ of 100 or better, and Bourjos is at 95. Heck, Conger’s at 85.
The offensive dead weight really lies with only TWO players, and you all know who they are. The one should hit better; the other one never has and never will. If/when Wells starts to hit, even at league average, and Scioscia finally tires of Mathis, the offense will probably be enough to support this pitching staff.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
There is truth to this
If you don’t buy into RISP being a ‘skill’ per se, than you can’t believe that the Angels’ distribution of hits can continue to be so skewed against RISP situations.
Not that I think a more equitable distribution will turn this team into a contender…
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
Though its stathead heresy, I don't believe RISP is 100% random
I didn’t believe it when the Angels were the best in the league at it (multiple times), and I don’t believe it now that they suck at it. Stands to reason that young hitters (and one or two of the olds) would be pressing.
That said, the performance has been extreme, and there’s no reason to expect it to continue. So maybe we can make it to .500 again.
I certainly appreciate your optimism reflected by your search for the silver lining.
So maybe we can make it to .500 again
Interesting stat I just found - not sure what it really means
Not even sure if it fits into this discussion.
But on BB-Ref’s team stats page, we lead the league in negative events (Win Probability Subtracted, or WPA-). Could be because Torii grounds into so many double plays, Trumbo strikes out with RISP and less than 2 out, or we run ourselves out of innings. Or all of the above.
So apparently, we not only suck at good ol’ fashion RISP, we just do a lot of bad things offensively that kill our chances of winning.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jun 11, 2011 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions
You mean sort of like last night...
…when Abreu was sent hope by our 3rd base windmill, even though the Royals left fielder was playing shallow and Abreu was out by about 10 feet? Which killed the only rally of the game for the Halos. Like that?
Yep
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jun 11, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it's heresy.
And I don’t think the “RISP is not a skill” folks are contending that players don’t ever “press.”
Rather, I think the idea is more that any “pressing” a player might engage in with RISP is likely to, over time, become statistically imperceptible from the “pressing” said player might engage in his other at bats – leading off an inning, facing a pitcher that makes him uncomfortable, late innings and losing, battling out of a (real or perceived) slump, etc.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
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