Weekly Projections Update: As of June 30th

by Of Maicer and Men on Jul 2, 2011 11:48 PM PDT

~~An offensive explosion~~ A sudden increase in singles and home runs have positively altered overall team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage--although something about this team's collective speed (and its relation to the team's collective power) may surprise you. Take a look for yourself.

Projected Final AL West Standings:
Texas: 85-77
Los Angeles: 83-79
Seattle: 78-84
Oakland: 75-87

INDIVIDUAL HITTING STATISTICS (frequent starters only)

Bobby Abreu: .289/.404/.382, 160 H, 33 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 63 RBI, 26 SB
Erick Aybar: .283/.319/.430, 159 H, 31 2B, 10 3B, 10 HR, 68 RBI, 33 SB
Peter Bourjos: .263/.314/.391, 139 H, 26 2B, 12 3B, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 16 SB
Alberto Callaspo: .280/.355/.358, 142 H, 22 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB
Hank Conger: .230/.311/.370, 79 H, 13 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB
Torii Hunter: .239/.310/.369, 140 H, 25 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB
Maicer Izturis: .295/.354/.414, 161 H, 40 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 13 SB
Howie Kendrick: .305/.362/.477, 172 H, 38 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 17 SB
Jeff Mathis: .187/.233/.281, 51 H, 14 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 2 SB
Mark Trumbo: .258/.300/.462, 134 H, 30 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB
Vernon Wells: .216/.248/.381, 107 H, 9 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB

INDIVIDUAL PITCHING STATISTICS (frequent pitchers only)

Tyler Chatwood: 10-9, 3.64 ERA, 167.1 IP, 109 K, 85 BB, 1.47 WHIP, 1.28 K/BB, 5.9 K/9
Dan Haren: 15-9, 2.85 ERA, 220.2 IP, 185 K, 34 BB, 1.02 WHIP, 5.44 K/BB, 7.5 K/9
Joel Pineiro: 7-7, 4.14 ERA, 178 IP, 77 K, 44 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 1.75 K/BB, 3.9 K/9
Ervin Santana: 6-15, 4.08 ERA, 214 IP, 178 K, 66 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 2.69 K/BB, 7.5 K/9
Jered Weaver: 18-8, 1.97 ERA, 246.2 IP, 212 K, 56 BB, 0.93 WHIP, 3.78 K/BB, 7.7 K/9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scott Downs: 10-4, 1.65 ERA, 54 IP, 33 K, 12 BB, 0.87 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB, 5.5 K/9
Fernando Rodney: 4-6, 4.09 ERA, 43 IP, 35 K, 29 BB, 1.41 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB, 7.3 K/9, 5 SV
Hisanori Takahashi: 4-2, 3.41 ERA, 67.2 IP, 57 K, 24 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 2.38 K/BB, 7.6 K/9
Rich Thompson: 2-4, 3.16 ERA, 61.1 IP, 69 K, 24 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 2.88 K/BB, 10.1 K/9
Jordan Walden: 2-4, 3.03 ERA, 70.1 IP, 77 K, 33 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 2.33 K/BB, 9.8 K/9, 35 SV

TEAM HITTING STATISTICS (listed hitters only)
Batting average: .259
Hits: 1,444 (average Angel: 131)
Doubles: 230 (average Angel: 21)
Triples: 30 (average Angel: 3; amongst Angels with triples: 6)
Home runs: 130 (average Angel: 12)
Runs batted in: 576 (average Angel: 52)
On-base percentage: .319
Slugging percentage: .392
Stolen bases: 136 (average Angel: 12)

TEAM PITCHING STATISTICS (listed pitchers only)
Wins: 78 (average starter: 11; average reliever: 4)
Losses: 68 (average starter: 10; average reliever: 4)
Earned run average: 3.20 (average starter: 3.37; average reliever: 2.67)
Innings pitched: 1323 (average starter: 205.1; average reliever: 59.1)
Strikeouts: 1032 (average starter: 152; average reliever: 54)
Walks: 408 (average starter: 57; average reliever: 25)
Walks/hits per innings pitched: 1.23 (average starter: 1.23; average reliever: 1.22)

(NOTE: Michael Kohn was removed from the projections due to absurdly low season totals that remove any consideration of him as a frequent Angels pitcher. He joins Matt Palmer, Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Cassevah and Jason Bulger as infrequent Angels relievers.)

So...what do we have here...oh yeah, Vernon Wells starting to become a ballplayer once again (becoming less of a Jeff Mathis and more of a GMJ--good player, still never worth the money). Also, Howie Kendrick emerges as a dark-horse MVP candidate, Weaver tightens his grip on the Cy Young (although Haren and even Downs can make their cases for it), and our Angels wind up just two games back of a division championship.

Any thoughts? (Next projections will be up around 7/8.)

Poll

Which seems the most unlikely to actually be true come season's end?

Angels finishing above .500

1 votes

Erick Aybar reaching double-digits in HR

11 votes

Rich Thompson's K/9 being higher than Jordan Walden's

7 votes

Mark Trumbo not reaching 30 HR

4 votes

Jered Weaver not reaching 20 wins

3 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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Comments

So this is really gonna happen every week then

Jeff Mathis Batting Average Watch: .197

by ryanfea on Jul 3, 2011 12:08 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I've considered scaling back to a bi-weekly after the break.

Not sure yet, though. I’ll wait on feedback regarding that.

"Erstad says he's got it, Erstad...MAKES THE CATCH! The Anaheim Angels are the champions of baseball!" - Rory Markas, October 27, 2002

by Of Maicer and Men on Jul 3, 2011 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions

I feel like this whole thing insults our collective knowledge

How can we project the rest of the season? Well batting average and ERA is the same, but multiply EVERYTHING ELSE by 162 over the number of games played so far, and you’ve got your numbers.

by lightupthehalo29 on Jul 3, 2011 10:06 AM PDT reply actions

You know

ZiPS projections get updated every day, and they’re more sophisticated than doubling every player’s counting stats.

by Suboptimal on Jul 3, 2011 11:46 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

It isn't that simple, contrary to your arrogant belief.

Projections were through 82 games. Took the number of games each player played in and divided it by 82. Multiplied the result of that, by 162, to project how many games they play in. I then divide the result of that by the number of games they’ve currently played, to devise the number by which I multiply their current numbers to get their projected stats.

EXAMPLE:

Player A has 72 games played. 72/82 is .878 (meaning they’ve played in 87.8% of their team’s games). Multiple .878 by 162, and you get 142—the amount of games they’re on pace to play, if they continue to play in 87.8% of games. Divide 142/72, and you get 1.972. Multiply each player’s non-averaged stats (i.e. everything but the slash line) by 1.972, and you have their projections.

"Erstad says he's got it, Erstad...MAKES THE CATCH! The Anaheim Angels are the champions of baseball!" - Rory Markas, October 27, 2002

by Of Maicer and Men on Jul 3, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think you get Sub's point.

Focus on the word sophisticated and then click on the link.

Pollyanna is dead. But don't get mad at me, I didn't kill her. Tony Reagins did.

by snowhor on Jul 3, 2011 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions

162/82 = 1.975 (or the same thing as you got)

So yeah, you just proved why we shouldn’t read this. Not only do you fail to realize how simple it is, but you fail to realize that it doesn’t matter how many games a player has played in to this point since he’ll be on pace to play in that many games later, as you said.

You’ve done pointless calculations to back up what is pretty much a pointless post. It is that simple, and subop is hardly being arrogant here, just correct as usual.

by lightupthehalo29 on Jul 3, 2011 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions

So...

In other words, you doubled every player’s counting stats. Unless it’s too arrogant to believe that, when working with numbers rounded to the nearest integer, multiplying by 1.972 is approximately the same as “doubling.”

You should really read this. Or maybe this. Or you could try to reverse-engineer this spreadsheet, and you’d know as much about in-season projections as anyone else.

by Suboptimal on Jul 4, 2011 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions