2011 Could Be A Win-Win For The Halos
Earlier in 2011 I wrote a post on another site explaining a thought: That no matter what the outcome of the season is, the Angels could be in a win-win situation, because the franchise has a lot of money coming off the books this offseason. Upwards to about $45 million will be freed up, and there has been talk of Arte Moreno increasing the payroll again, starting with this trade deadline. The season may or may not be a success, either way the Angels will have all the room to buy this winter, and maybe more.
About a month and a half ago, I speculated that the front office could sell at the deadline and free up even more cash to get some younger veterans with many years ahead of them. That was during a rough stretch where the Halos were losing six games in a row. Since June 13, however, the Angels are 27-13. So my speculation has become rather mundane at this point. But that still doesn't mean there won't be enough flexibility this winter.
Reagins probably should have sold last season, while still bringing in Haren for the future. Had Reagins done so, we might not have worried about this at all earlier in the year, and this would be a redundant post, which it probably is considering the Angels are in fact in contention and this is mainly food for thought.
How about this? I am one of the minority who thinks getting a rental isn't such a bad idea. Sure, selling young prospects can sometimes come back to bite you, but this team has seen an entire decade go by since it's first World Series appearance, and the clock is ticking. It will still be more of a crapshoot considering this team's lack of depth and overall experience in certain areas. But it should still be fun to watch; starting with the next Texas series on August 15, one quarter of the remaining 40 games this season are against the Texas Rangers. That should be an exciting race to the finish. Then, whatever happens in October, the Angels can get right back to signing and dealing.
$23 million dollars alone comes from the expiring contracts of Gary Matthews Jr. and Scott Kazmir. If possible, there's the team's next franchise bat right, unless Mark Trumbo is turning into that for peanuts. Had the Angels' 2011 season continued to go down the drain, as it did in May, we'd probably be saying goodbye to a few recent fan favorites.
One of those fan favorites who's departure may not happen, but could help free up more cash is Bobby Abreu. His $9 million option for 2012 is guaranteed after 550 plate appearances. If the team decides to buy out his option, I can see them possibly doing this at the deadline; teams do use the deadline as a point at which to evaluate performance.
Here's an example of a move that still boggles my mind, but still indicates the possibility the same could happen to Abreu: While failing to make a deal at the 1998 deadline, Bill Bavasi called up Troy Glaus to be the everyday third baseman, and then just a week later (Aug. 6) he released Cecil Fielder, who was leading the team in RBI's! I remember Harold Reynolds went off for about three minutes over this that night on ESPN. I was shocked. The Angels lost the division. I was unable to find any vesting options attached to Cecil's contract; however, I do remember it was incentive-laden -- something had to have prompted Cecil's release. If that can happen, then I would guess Reagins may have the same thing in mind. We'll know on Monday.
There is also the school of thought that says: "We can't take another year of this group coming up short, so it's time to upgrade through trades." With the financial cushion Reagins (or the next GM) will be sitting on, he will have all the leg room he can use up to upgrade via free agency, or though trades, or both. This gives the Angels a chance to finally be a complete team, and contend for another World Series from the start in 2012.
What I'm really looking forward to though is what will happen in the offseason in 2013, where so far there is only about $70 million committed. I wonder what what the team will look like then. In any case, the Halos should come out winners, regardless of where they finish in 2011.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Comments
First of all, I certainly hope they buy out Bobby's option.
I actually had no idea there was a buyout on his option. $1 Mil vs. $9 Mil? With Trout joining the outfield next season? Hmmm. Fernando Rodney ($5.5 Mil) and Joel Pineiro ($8 Mil) are also coming off the books.
Also, you have to remember that there are a lot of players due for a raise, most notably:
Vernon Wells’ 2012 salary: $24.6 Million. The Angels paid around $22 Million this season because the Jays sent $5 Million in the deal. $2 Million raise.
Ervin Santana’ 2012 salary: 11.2 Million. $3 Million raise.
And then there are the major arbitration cases:
Howie Kendrick: Howie’s having a great year on a
$3.3 Million in 2011. His price should almost double in arbitration and there is the idea that they may try and sign him long term during the offseason. His 2012 salary will probably end up being around $6 Million. A $3 Million raise.
Erick Aybar: Very similar contract situation than Kendrick. Erick’s 2011 salary is $3 Million and will probably increase to near double as well. Lets say, $5.5 Million. A $2.5 Million raise.
Jered Freaking Weaver: Potentially this year’s AL Cy Young winner, Jered went through salary arbitration for the 2011 season and settled for around $7 Million. With the season he’s having this year, he won’t be “settling” for anything less than $15 Million and there has been talk floating around about big extension talks (unlikely to happen because he, of course, is a Boras client) but if anyone’s going to make the big bucks, it should be Jered. Due to his delivery and below-average velocity, he’s going to be good for a very long time in my opinion. Due for a 2012 raise of at least $7 Million.
There are also the younger players such as Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Hank Conger, Tyler Chatwood, and Jordan Walden, all of whom are due for raises. Collectively around $5 Million or so.
So, although you have a lot coming off, you also have a significant amount adding on. The 2012 payroll is going to be over $100 Million no matter what. It will likely end up being $120 Million, around $20 million less than this season. Not a whole lot of room for big signings.
Personally, I don’t think we’ll need more offensive next season. This is the line-up I know most likely won’t happen but I’m praying it will be something like this:
Bourjos – CF
Kendrick – 2B
Hunter – DH
Morales – 1B (With our luck, he’ll never be back)
Wells – LF
Trumbo – 3B (I know, I know. All I’m asking is that they try)
Trout – RF
Conger – C (Or Wilson…or anyone not named Mathis)
Aybar – 2B
That should be more than enough offense.
Trout in left, torii right, vw DH.. Oh, and 2 2B's?! Haha
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Jul 30, 2011 8:26 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I hope they do try Trumbo at third
So that when he falls flat on his face, everyone on this blog can stop chirping about that idea once and for all.
by dmhead on Jul 30, 2011 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
You're not really in disagreement.
The author is suggesting the Angels will have 20-40 million for offseason additions and your account seems to confirm this. Also, depending on how the season ends, there are alot of trade pieces in your list. I hate to think of it, but I think seven of your nine are at risk of being shopped.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Jul 30, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Who knows?
All of them except the untradeables have some value in the offseason. If we want a blockbuster you’re looking at Kendrick or Trout, and Conger or Trumbo. If the team doesn’t win the division, the fans won’t take another year of this group and these guys can get you some names…
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Jul 30, 2011 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks For The Help
I took all this into consideration, and hopefully made it clear that I wasn’t giving an exact total because I don’t what the exact amount freed up will be.
There is a buyout on Abreu
but only if the option doesn’t vest, which it is guaranteed if he reaches a certain number of plate appearances…a total I think he’s already reached, or is a week away from or so.
A wise man once said "never postpone to tomorrow what can be done the day after tomorrow. Except DFAing Mathis. Do that shit now, plz."
by Caseys Kiss of Death on Jul 30, 2011 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
It vests with 4 more PA
Like today’s game…
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Jul 31, 2011 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blog
dissenter, dubious and devil's advocate to blog monitors everywhere.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jul 30, 2011 8:10 AM PDT reply actions
Lies! Chupa can't be bought out..
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Jul 30, 2011 8:23 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Cots Actually Posted Abreu's Buyout
And not his option. There just isn’t enough room on the spreadsheet to list both I guess. But the buyout is there as well as Baseball-Reference.com.
Buyouts apply when an option is declined
But once Abreu reaches 1100 PA for 2010-2011 (about 48 PA from now), the option vests and can no longer be declined. The $9 million salary for 2012 becomes guaranteed. There is no $1 million escape hatch once this happens.
For a blogger you're pretty short on information
The buyout only falls into play at the end of the term of his current contract, which would end at the close of the season. The option becomes automatic when he reaches the requisite number of plate appearances, which he will reach soon. Once that happens, the buyout no longer applies. It was essentially a “whichever happens first” type of situation. The only way out of it would be to release him before he reaches that magic number of plate appearances, at which point his agent will file a grievance with the players union (and rightfully so).
Why all the concern with Abreu, anyways? Wells, Hunter and Bourjos are the ones blocking Trout. Bobby’s salary for next year is a pittance for this team. Even if he’s on the bench he’ll bring value.
There Are A Lot of People Out There Who Are Still Looking For This Info
I apologize for that lack of info. I’m still getting my feet wet writing in a new venue. Where I usually blog (Halo-Space) there is a different audience that consists of casual fans who go to the site for information that we provide so they don’t have to look it up themselves. My intention is to get a feel for the readers on this site. And if that includes taking some shots for flaws in my writing, then so be it. I’m just putting it out there and seeing what happens.
This feels weird.
awkward.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Jul 30, 2011 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
In other words
You can say whatever you want on your blog, because no one is going to know any better, or even take the first step toward verifying the information. Sounds like you should be extra careful with your claims on that site, not the other way around.
The info is already readily available
Any one can go to google and search these things.
I’m confused as to what your blog offers that others do not, other than giving yourself the opportunity to call yourself a writer.
Where do you think I went to?
The library? It’s not that easy to find. Most articles talk about his vesting option, the PA’s, the writer’s opinion, etc. The buyout is rarely talked about other than the fact that there’s a $1 million buyout.
And I’m wondering the same thing about 2 of your fanposts.
Always assume that I will be reading your blogs as well.
Abreu's vesting
I haven’t done the math myself, but quoting from today’s LA Times:
Abreu about to get richer
After going two for four with a walk Saturday, Bobby Abreu needs only four plate appearances to trigger a $9-million contract option for next season.
And yes, buyouts apply only when the team holds the option. In this case, it is about the player achieving certain metrics, and Abreu has held up his end of that bargain.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Jul 31, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
You need to start by understanding how the buyout works in relation to the option
Perhaps you should start a new blog dedicated to how baseball contracts work?
by mustard_man on Jul 30, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Your blogs are full of stuffing and not much meat.
Tell us something we don’t already know.
"It's our money," owner Arte Moreno said.
+1
This is pretty much saying, “Breaking news, The Angels may either raise OR lower payroll for next year”
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Jul 30, 2011 8:27 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
And dont respond unless you like my writing.
by Balls and Strikes on Jul 30, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
That Wasn't Really The Issue
I thought I was being accused of lacking stats in order to self promote, when I was just getting my feet wet in a new venue. It just turned into an unnecessary battle. lol
The only way for a "buyout"
Would be to pay him his full 9 Million and then release him. There is a 0% chance of that happening
"Its like when i’m right…i’m right… and when i’m wrong…i could have been right..so i’m still right cause i could have been wrong"-Chevy Clarke's Twitter
At least early on
Let’s just see what things look like a year from now. I could never find that option, no mater how hard I looked.
Get up to speed
The Mets aren’t that dumb these days.
Alderson/DePodesta >>>>>>>> Reagins
The only team dumb enough to trade for Abreu are the Angels. Rather tragic that is probably the only option.
by YouthofToday on Jul 30, 2011 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's a bit of a reach to call yourself a writer already based on the last two gems you posted here.
Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.
You are a big ol' meanie!
"Its like when i’m right…i’m right… and when i’m wrong…i could have been right..so i’m still right cause i could have been wrong"-Chevy Clarke's Twitter
Well I could have just said 'you suck,' but I took the high road.
Everyone bask in my literary altruism, or go to hell.
Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.
by RexTookMyStash on Jul 30, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I Never Claimed Them To Be Good
I’m just getting a feel for what kind of readers I will have, and what kind of topics I should post.
It’s looking so far like the commenters are those who are more well-informed than over at Halo-Space, which right now is an outlet where I provide information for more casual fans who seek out said information because that’s the furthest they will go to research.
So my ignorance of my readers is why my first two posts totally suck.
I know when I write crappy material.
I’d give my first two a D-.
So what you're saying is
You intend to write for idiots? Sorry, but the OC Register already has that covered.
by dmhead on Jul 30, 2011 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So what mkes you better than everyone else?
Are you an Angels fan?
Ryan actually is part of a site where we have respect for each other and don’t feel the need to try and put others down by their opinions. It makes me sick when other fans try to put other fans down. =/
http://www.halosheaven.com/2010/1/6/1237239/meet-a-blogger-halo-space
Where True Angels Fans are
No one here but us False Angels Fans
I don’t even like baseball, actually. It’s only a convenient source or random digits to me.
Linking twice to a post that's over a year old about you in the same thread. =[
Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.
by RexTookMyStash on Aug 1, 2011 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
K! LOL! BRB!
Diaf.
Official prediction: The Angels will win the AL west this season.
by RexTookMyStash on Aug 1, 2011 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
From the highly praised works of Suboptimal here at HH
You’ve been served:
http://www.halosheaven.com/2011/6/23/2240232/the-straight-dope-on-the-angels-roster
Swung on and missed, he struck him out! ~ Terry Smith
Angels' 2011 W-L record with the alternate red jersey: 14-9 (Home: 6-5 | Road: 7-5 || Day: 6-3 | Night: 7-7)
That's a solid article, for sure
My only concern is that it is based on a caveat that I have very strong doubts about:
You should reach the same conclusion: the team cannot sustain its current $140 million payroll on its current revenue streams. The future likely holds an annual payroll in the $125-$135 million range, and if the league-wide decrease in attendance is any indication, it would be most realistic to assume a figure closer to the lower bound.
Reading between the lines is speculative, yes, but when I hear a guy saying “it’s our money” and stressing less than five year deals that suggests someone whose exit strategy revolves around increasing the value of the investment, as he has already done. When that’s the case, current revenue doesn’t dictate payroll. Unlike McCourt’s cash-and-carry approach where you keep the bank in your wallet, I’m guessing Arte pumps and re-invests to increase the value so as to either cash in on TV, merchandising, etc. Without knowing the valuations, whether he cashes out any of it, or whether he plans to sell one day (and if so, when), there’s no real way to know what his payroll limitations are. I bet he has a team of people he represents and when needed can get infusions as value increases. It would be nice if American business was still simply assets/liabilities/profit, but it hasn’t been that way in a long time.
It also doesn’t consider payroll reducing transactions/trades/buyouts. I think alot of our opinions about the organization and certain transactions have been so connected to the finances that we need restraints to exist where they may not. Again, we’re all speculating. Regardless of management, I’m putting my money on an owner who has proven he’s not stupid.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Jul 30, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
If You Had Turned That Into An Opinion Blog
I would have enjoyed reading it, as I did here.
One can even speculate that Arte has been so smart with his money that he has a huge chunk sitting in a bond somewhere generating loads of interest that he can tap into whenever he feels necessary to help the franchise.
Just a thought I had without any evidence to speak of. lol
Arte is not stupid
Which means that he is not stupid with his money. All of the Angels’ financial information is out there: assets, liabilities, revenues, amortization plans, and so on. We’ve also heard from Arte himself about what he wants to do with the team in the future, and where he expects the payroll to be in the near future. It’s all linked in that article.
Whether Arte’s payroll limit for 2012 is exactly $135 million of $140 million really isn’t that material anyways. The big picture is that (1) most of that money is already spent or will be spent on retaining existing players and (2) the payroll is not going to be $160 million next year. Moreno will run the team very close to the break-even point, but he likes keeping debts minimal. He can’t just “gift” the team $25 million of his own personal money every year. He could issue a loan between financial entities under his control, taking a page out of Frank McCourt’s playbook. You don’t have to be Arte Moreno to realize how stupid that would be in the long-term.
Then there are the X Factors
(not Eckstein)
If the negotiations for a new TV deal, especially if TW Cable gets into bidding, could bring the promise of extra revenue into the mix, it could lead to looser pursestrings. That is, if Arte knows that his TV revenue will take a leap by 2015 (I don’t recall the year this deal with FSW ends, but it seems like 2015 or 2016), then he could feel freer to sign free agents with backloaded deals.
Finally, the situation with the stadium hasn’t been resolved, and the team needs to exercise its out clause in the next 18 months—maybe a revised lease agreement with the city will lead to enhanced revenue as well. That, or a new stadium in Anaheim, which would bring a massive infusion of revenue to the team.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Jul 31, 2011 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
The Out Clause States It Must Be Exercised Before 2017
Does that mean any time before 2017, or during the 2016-’17 offseason?
The current TV deal was a 10 year one, signed April 3, 2006.
Interesting how the expiration of the TV deal coincides with the deadline for opting out of the lease agreement.
It means after the conclusion of the 2016 season
But the team is obligated to notify the city of its intention before the end of the 2014 season, which means both parties need to be negotiating in 2013 if the team is to build a new Angel Stadium and vacate the lease on the current location.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Aug 1, 2011 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Excellent information
After all these years the one thing I still want to know is why Figgy wears that stupid band aid!
I'm Modifying This Post
It’s still not that great, but at least I can practice stepping up on my research.
I can envision a 2012 without Abreu or Trout
I don’t think the Angels are going to pay Torii $18M to DH. He’s going to be the regular RF for next season.
At the same time, I think Trumbo has earned his shot at next year. The kid will finish with 25 or so HR and a legitimate claim to RoY honors for this year.
The wild card is Kendrys’ return, and I can see the team slotting him in as DH, given the length of time it has taken to return from the broken leg, his limited mobility before the break and the need to keep his bat in the game. If he shows up in AZ in any kind of condition to play (not overweight, good timing and batspeed), then the team needs to entertain offers for Abreu in the AL as a DH. As such, it would be necessary to eat 30% to 50% of his contract, since $4M to $6M seems to be the going price for a DH, and he needs to step up his game for the remainder of this season. But I see him as odd man out in the lineup for 2012.
As for Trout, he’ll go back to SLC after the end of camp and prepare to take over for Torii in 2013, being only a phone call away in the event of an injury to one of the starters. That is one hell of an insurance policy.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
That sounds about right
If Kendrys comes back next spring and Trout is ready then there is going to be a major logjam on the roster next year.
It will be interesting/scary to see how Reagins handles next offseason.
$9 million may sound a lot for a part time player
But if Kendrys actually does come back, I have a feeling he DH’s and shares that spot with Abreu. This team needs depth.
Why do I keep forgetting about Wells and Hunter
one of them will DH, so that probably leaves Abreu and Morales on the bench. Maybe that’s still a good thing.
Morales
It is highly unlikely that the team would make a .300 average, switch-hitting, 30 HR hitter a bench player. Likewise, platooning him in the lineup with Abreu makes little sense.
But to save wear and tear on his reconstructed leg, I can see the team making him the full-time DH, for at least the first half of the season.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Aug 1, 2011 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
This is my thought
Next year Abreu may find himself on the bench
After all these years the one thing I still want to know is why Figgy wears that stupid band aid!
Not for $9M
The team will trade him and eat $4M before they make him ride the pine—that’s a waste of both money and a roster spot.
I don’t think they’ll make a move until it is determined what Morales’ physical condition is, and they watch him play in ST. If he is deemed in sufficient shape to play full-time and if his batting timing returns, then I don’t see why they wouldn’t give him the DH job. His ability to hit 25-30 HR in the season would be an essential component of the offense, and I don’t think anyone can concoct a reason why Morales should supplant Trumbo at 1B.
Cot’s indicates Morales has two more years under arbitration in 2012 and 2013—he signed one of the most confusing contracts as a free agent that I have ever seen, so I’ll go with Cot’s evaluation—and this Boras client figures to hit the free agent market for the 2014 season. Thus, it makes sense to keep Trumbo on the front lines and give him as much game experience as possible.
And should all of the above come to pass, Abreu will be the odd man out. If an AL team loses a DH during ST (or an NL team wants a veteran hitter presence for about $5M), then I could see Abreu being traded to clear up the roster roles.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
by George Kaplan on Aug 3, 2011 4:14 AM PDT up reply actions

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