Peter Bourjos After 500 Plate Appearances
I came across this Fangraphs article touting Mike Trout at the expense (somewhat) of Peter Bourjos, and I thought it was a time to take a moment to reflect on Fleet Pete.
Whether you like Baseball Reference's calculation of Wins Above Replacement or Fangraph's slightly more generous accounting of WAR, Peter Bourjos has accumulated more than 4 WAR in his first 506 PAs with the Angels. By contrast, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells have only accumulated more than 4 WAR in a full season twice in each of their careers.
Suffice to say, Peter Bourjos is a player that the Angels must play, and must not trade for anything short of a superstar player -- and we should hope that he and Trout can cohabit the same Angels outfield for many years to come.
If, at the beginning of the season, someone predicted that Peter Bourjos would be hitting a very Erstad-like .272/.323/.397 at the All Star break, would you have been surprised? Pleased?
11 months ago
Turks Teeth
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One thing to keep in mind is that Trout and Bourjous have higher value because they player Center.
Move one of them out of position and they have less value to the team (thought I’d still want both of them out there).
I still really love the idea of the two of them sharing the outfield–Imagine the value they’d provide if they could cover the outfield without a third man?
Well aware of their positional value.
Which is why I comped Bourjos with Wells and Hunter, both centerfielders.
I don’t think it exaggerates Bourjos’s merit to say that his range and glove exceeds that of Hunter in his prime.
by Turks Teeth on Jul 9, 2011 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Personally, i'd play Bourjos in LF, Trout in RF
and let Tori play shallow center while having VW DH. having these guys on the corners would take advantage of their range.
I don't get that.
I think playing either of them in CF takes advantage of their range — and is historically why you put guys with limited range at the corners.
Torii showed two straight years of negative UZR in centerfield before being moved to right, where he now has positive defensive value again.
I think Bourjos should definitely continue playing center. As Wells and Hunter have learned to yield the field to Peter, his UZR has incrementallly increased this season month over month. Let him cover the zone — he can do it superbly, as we all have witnessed.
by Turks Teeth on Jul 9, 2011 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
i was referring to the idea of playing both outfielders at all times
it seemed to imply in the body of the article that playing the 2 at the same time wasn’t possible. If CF is the most important outfielder, then I am all for playing the most skilled person at this position. My idea was to maximize the outfield if the team ever did go with playing 2 outfielders because of their impressive range and go with a 5th infielder. (brought up in a previous thread) Hell, you may see mediocre pitchers having career years when Trout and Bourjos finally hit the field together.
I think we're already seeing that effect with Bourjos alone there.
Every Angels starting pitcher has an ERA south of 4, and I don’t think that would’ve been the case with a weaker outfield — Chatwood’s and Pineiro’s groundball tendencies notwithstanding.
Jered Weaver, as good as he is, should be kissing Peter’s cape nightly, since the fielding independent stats suggest a significant part of his season is owned to his outfield defense (48.7% of his batted balls are flyballs, by far the most of any starter on the club).
I have to admit
im salivating at the thought of having these 2 speedsters patrolling the outfield together.
How about this?
Put Bourjos in LF, Trout in RF, and let Hunter, Wells, and GMJ all play CF at the same time, just to see if the three of them combined can shag more balls at that position than Bourjos does by himself? Might as well get some value from our $50 million center-fielder.
by Suboptimal on Jul 9, 2011 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lets go one better
Why do we need a centerfielder? Lets just have Bourjous and Trout cover the entire outfield. Scioscia already employs this strategy in defensive walkoff situations with less than 2 outs. We could add a 5th infielder behind second or even have them back up premium in passed ball situations
by Bozo's1000son on Jul 10, 2011 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I like that idea...
…Let’s have 2 DH’s. And instead of one for the Pitcher, we’ll give it to Mathis when he plays. Then we could have Chatwood and Haren hit. 2nd Championship here we come!
Why include Torii?
P-Bo is better than just about every CF in baseball. He has a job because a 9-time gold glover saw the writing on the wall and was man enough to move aside. That had to be hard, but it was man shit. Torii is still a very capable CF and regardless, he doesn’t deserve this shit. At least give the kid time to prove he won’t end up as a utility player for the white sox before you talk shit about his teammates. Can we enjoy a long P-Bo career?
It’s wrong, dude. Some of our families really love Torii. He’s not shit just because P-Bo is awesome. I thought we were upset at the FO because of Wells’s contract. When did we start hating him and extending it to Torii? This fanbase didn’t use to be this way….
I love Torii!
"We are not on an austerity program," Arte Moreno
by thebigtizzle on Jul 10, 2011 3:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Vernon, it's very admirable of you to stick up for your teammate.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
Just curious: Does dWAR provide reliable information?
Vernon Wells won 2 Gold Gloves while owning a negative dWAR in 2004-2005, according to baseball reference.
I'm beginning to trust it more and more.
The fact that Wells won two GGs while having negative value at the position says more about Gold Gloves than anything else.
Jeter won a Gold Glove at shortstop while being judged the worst player at the position by several measures.
Thanks
In 2005, the 3 GG were: Torii, VW, and Ichiro
According to fangraphs, all 3 had mediocre UZL/150.
And according to baseball reference, Ichiro had a good dWAR, but the other 2 slouched.
It almost seems GG is a popularity contest.
I agree that Pete has far exceeded the most optimistic projections
He’s hella fun to watch and brings needed excitement and energy to the team.
Two numbers for 2011 that concern me:
BABIP: .362
SwStr%: 12.2%
I hope that the first is a trend and the second an anonaly, and not vice versa.
Combined WAR to date of your Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Fantastic Five (VW, Torii, Kazmir, GMJ, Premium) -1. WAR leader: GMJ:0. Combined 2011 salary: $66,600,000.
Obviously his speed contributes a lot to his BABIP.
Not enough that you can expect that number to stay that high forever, but we can dream. :-)
Re: BABIP, I pointed this out in the Fangraphs thread...
…but his BABIP is not terribly out-of-line with his minor league numbers. He possessed a BABIP of .357 or higher at three of five levels in the minors. The guy is simply really fast, gets a lot of infield hits, and is a very competent bunter. He may not always sustain a BABIP that high, but it’s not anomalous by any means in his history — it’s more the norm than the exception.
The strikeouts he has to work on, no question.
To answer your question, I am "pleased" with Bourjos' performance thus far.
He has exceeded my offensive expectations of him and had lived up to the defensive ones. The area where he needs to improve the most is getting on base. To round out his value to the team, he needs to raise his OBP to a minimum of .360 (which will come with better plate discipline, i.e. walks). When that happens, “Fleet Pete” will have even more opportunities to showcase his speed. (Even Sosh wouldn’t have the audacity to accuse him of clogging the basepaths).
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
With all due respect,
I don’t think Bourjos will ever be a .360 OBP player, well at least not via the walk primarily.
If he wants to get on base that much, he’ll have to hit around .310 or so which isn’t exactly out of the realm of possibility but I wouldn’t bet on it any time soon.
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jul 9, 2011 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Bourjos has allayed my skepticism
When the season started, I wasn’t convinced that he could get on base even 25% of the time. His numbers at Salt Lake just weren’t strong enough yet. And while that K/BB rate is still brutal, he has a reasonable chance to finish the season as a league-average hitter, but with outstanding defensive value. I think he’s in the majors to stay now. If the organization was already this high on him during the offseason, it makes the Wells decision even more baffling.
They were high on him
But he hit .204 in 181 ABs last year with a .237 OPS, followed up by hitting .207 in winter ball.
Combined WAR to date of your Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Fantastic Five (VW, Torii, Kazmir, GMJ, Premium) -1. WAR leader: GMJ:0. Combined 2011 salary: $66,600,000.
OPS should be OPB
Combined WAR to date of your Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Fantastic Five (VW, Torii, Kazmir, GMJ, Premium) -1. WAR leader: GMJ:0. Combined 2011 salary: $66,600,000.
I agree that I was worried after his last year
I was thinking he’d in up a defensive replacement/pinch runner if he couldn’t improve so this is a pleasant surprise.
but you hate his socks
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some douche named DFA from AN
by 2pintsofbooze on Jul 9, 2011 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What's most baffling is how quickly they were to play Howie Kendrick in leftfield.
That was an experiment I hadn’t even thought of — and despite my skepticism, it seems to work.
Given the Angels’ depth in the middle infield, the Wells trade seems the height of irrationality. Even though the homeruns have fallen off, Kendrick has hit like a corner outfielder this season (obviously he’s been the best hitter on the club) and could’ve been a fine solution to our corner woes had that experiment been begun in spring training.
With Beltre at third and Maicer/Callaspo at 2B, no one could’ve really complained with the results, and the Angels would’ve had a little extra cash to lock up Weaver earlier to an extension.
Someone might have complained
If Beltre continues to compile a .934 OPS with an .305 ISO at Rangers Ballpark and a .669 OPS and .124 ISO everywhere else.
Combined WAR to date of your Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Fantastic Five (VW, Torii, Kazmir, GMJ, Premium) -1. WAR leader: GMJ:0. Combined 2011 salary: $66,600,000.
by VPBOB on Jul 9, 2011 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Those are very interesting numbers to point out to all those still wishing we signed Beltre
Perhaps he would have been closer to the Seattle Beltre rather than the Boston/Texas Beltre if he was playing in Angel Stadium.
by Persi W on Jul 10, 2011 9:58 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Same.
I was extremely skeptical. There was, however, one ray of hope in his minors numbers that I found myself clinging to: his contact, K and walk rates – though not great – stayed pretty constant as he progressed through the levels. That is, he was able to step-up his game at each level to deal with progressively better pitching.
Seems he’s done that again.
Awesome.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
Orlando Palmiero with more speed and more strikeouts?
dissenter, dubious and devil's advocate to blog monitors everywhere.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jul 10, 2011 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Or OBP
I’ll get it right some day
Combined WAR to date of your Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Fantastic Five (VW, Torii, Kazmir, GMJ, Premium) -1. WAR leader: GMJ:0. Combined 2011 salary: $66,600,000.
I think I'd rather have Pete crashing around in Center
Whether Trout is in Left or Right depends on whether his arm is stronger or not than whoever else is out there.
biggest "weakness" of Trout's has been his arm
It’s not a big issue, but the most negative comment you normally hear in scouting reports about Trout is his so-so arm. I think they said at best it’s going to be around average or slightly below average. That said, LF is probably more likely, but at if his offense ends up developing as everyone expects, it wouldn’t matter too much one way or the other so long as he’s getting ABs and on the field somewhere.
P-Bo's met my expectations actually
We knew his defense was all-world, but my thing was that last year’s 51 games were a small sample size, just enough for teams to make one or two adjustment to him to keep him off-balance. I felt that this year, he’d be more prepared for those things and would be able to use his speed and quick hands to get infield hits and smack balls down the left field line. I think a lot of people put too much emphasis on his BABIP numbers in this case, his speed will trump normal convention. I think he can sustain a .300+ BABIP for a few years with that speed, maybe not as high as it is now but somewhere in the area. As other people have commented here, his minor league track record shows this is possible.
~ these atoms are liars
I was thinking about this as I watched Trout the last two nights
I think it is assumed the power will come, though he might not hit more than 25 HR per year. His reflexes are very good and the first step is dynamite.
But the same can be said of Bourjos, who may not hit more than 15 HR in a year, but who has a better arm than Trout.
So it Trout shaping up to be Matt Holliday with less pop and much, much more speed? Perhaps our own, home-grown Carl Crawford? The name of Mickey Mantle keeps coming up in comps from scouts (who, admittedly, have seen Trout play more games than I have), but Mantle had prodigious power and also was a switch-hitter, while it remains to be seen what sort of longball ability Trout’s bats have, and he is strictly a righty at the plate. The mantle of Mantle might be overselling the young man.
In thinking about this, I am very comfortable with the idea of Trout in LF and Bourjos in CF.
I am impressed by what I see as poise and confidence in Trout; while it is true that he hasn’t been called up in the middle of a pennant drive, it is also true that the Angels have been playing very good baseball over the past few weeks, they’re still in hot pursuit of the Rangers and first place, and no rookie wants to be called up and screw everything up.
I believe the Angels still have work to do on Trout’s game, but he is getting his exposure to Mike Sciosica’s “Taste of the Bigs” ® (“Hey! We fly to our games and someone carries our bags for us!”), which Scioscia likes to share with every prospect during the year to keep them focused on the goal.
I don’t think, though, that the Angels’ front office expected Trout to fly through the minors as he has, or else I doubt that Abreu would have received that vesting clause for 2012. I think the team thought Trout wouldn’t emerge until 2013, and saw keeping Abreu around as a prudent move. Instead, barring a trade of either Bourjos or Abreu, that vesting deal will serve to keep Trout in SLC until 2013, as there is no point in bringing him up and letting him rot on the bench. Hunter/Wells/Trout could cycle through the RF/LF/DH slots in 2012, but not if Abreu is around. I figure him to be on standby in SLC next year in case any of the starting OF comes up lame.
"The contract is brought up a lot. What it's going to take to get past it is winning. This organization took on the contract. I'm here to make them look good."~Vernon Wells
Too Early?
While I am stoked to see such a young star promoted so early…is it too early? If the Halos really want Trout to “arrive” in 2012, then they gotta move someone. The two most likely candidates to me seem to be Peter or Abreu. With the aging outfield we have and no one in the minors to really replace it except Trout (Petitt…maaaaybe), I don’t see Pete going anywhere.
As for a Abreu, a team like the Rays would likely entertain the idea of picking up Abreu: i.e. relatively low-cost for an aging but still productive veteran.
I hate to say it, but I feel like Abreu might be the best to go if Trout is to arrive in 2012. We cant get rid of Wells cuz of the contract, same goes for Torii. Pete might be the future. Bye bye Abreu…
Finally, no one is talking about the possibility of Morales coming back. I KNOW I KNOW…he’s probably done. But what if he ISNT? Then what? The idea of moving K-MO and or Trumbo to the OF is not possible. DH? Maybe for a year but then I am sure Wells or Torii will eventually move into that position.
I sense some trading going on in the not so distant future…
dissenter, dubious and devil's advocate to blog monitors everywhere.
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Jul 10, 2011 8:07 PM PDT reply actions
Torii
Hunter’s contract isn’t nearly as unmovable as Wells’. Hunter one has 1-year, $18 million left on his deal for 2012. I like the guy a lot, but I think it’s unlikely that he’ll be around in 2013. It may make sense to look into moving him this coming off-season. We would likely have to eat some of the contract, but there are many teams that might be willing to pay him 8-10 million for 1 year.
Honestly? I'd like to have Torii around. Maybe a one or two year contract.
And also, based on the Bourjos experience, I think Torii’s smart enough, AND man enough to realize that $18MM ain’t coming his way again. Maybe 1yr/$8MM with a $6MM vesting option for 2014?
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?































