AN AVERAGE COMPARISON, 2009 VS. 2011
All HH'ers can see the Angels have fielded a pathetic offense this year. How pathetic? Here's a comparison to the glory days of 2009...or one specific glory day anyway.
Angel batting averages* at the close of play vs. Cleveland Indians, August 18, 2009:
|
PLAYER |
POSITION |
AVG. |
|
3B |
.308 |
|
|
RF |
.310 |
|
|
Juan Rivera |
LF |
.310 |
|
DH |
.313 |
|
|
Kendry Morales |
1B |
.303 |
|
CF |
.307 |
|
|
2B |
.300 |
|
|
C |
.300 |
|
|
SS |
.313 |
Angel batting averages* at the close of play vs. Texas Rangers, August 18, 2011:
|
PLAYER |
POSITION |
AVG. |
|
Maicer Izturis |
3B |
.269 |
|
2B |
.290 |
|
|
LF |
.200 |
|
|
Torii Hunter |
RF |
.257 |
|
1B |
.259 |
|
|
DH |
.198 |
|
|
Peter Buorjos |
CF |
.274 |
|
Erick Aybar |
SS |
.259 |
|
C |
.176 |
Side by side comparison of 2009 to 2011 by position and deviation:
|
POSITION |
2009 |
2011 |
DEVIATION |
|
C |
.300 |
.176 |
.124 |
|
1B |
.303 |
.259 |
.044 |
|
2B |
.300 |
.290 |
.010 |
|
SS |
.313 |
.259 |
.054 |
|
3B |
.308 |
.269 |
.039 |
|
LF |
.310 |
.200 |
.110 |
|
CF |
.307 |
.274 |
.033 |
|
RF |
.310 |
.257 |
.053 |
|
DH |
.313 |
.198 |
.115 |
|
|
|
TOTAL DEVIATION |
.582 |
So total deviation is .582, which translates into .065 per position. That's right...the per position batting average is .065 less. That's a lot of points to give away on offense.
Here is the data sorted by deviation, greatest to least by position:
|
POSITION |
DEVIATION |
|
C |
.124 |
|
DH |
.115 |
|
LF |
.110 |
|
SS |
.054 |
|
RF |
.053 |
|
1B |
.044 |
|
3B |
.039 |
|
CF |
.033 |
|
2B |
.010 |
NON-SURPRISES:
1) The greatest drop in offense is at the catching position.
2) The next greatest (DH) may not be a totally fair comparison, since Branyan rarely plays. Substituting Abreu for Branyan helps, but that position deviation is still over 60 points.
3) Left field has seen a drastic reduction from Hunter Rivera in 2009 versus Wells in 2011...110 points less.
RANDOM NOTES:
1) There is not one position (!) where the batting average is higher in 2011 versus 2009. As Jim Fregosi would say, "Hitting is contagious".
2) Aybar is 54 points lower this year versus 2009. That a significant drop.
3) Hunter is exactly 50 points lower.
4) Izturis is 31 points lower.
5) Kendrick is the only one that hasn't shown a significant drop in batting average (10 points).
6) How bad would we be if Trumbo had been as bad as expected (not gleaned from stats above, but from his power numbers)?
CONCLUSION: No team could expect to continue hitting like the Angels of 2009. But a decline in batting average of 65 points in 2 years would be catastrophic to any team's chances of appearing in the playoffs. If Arte is paying attention (events yesterday confirm he probably is) , I don't see how major front office and roster changes can be avoided this winter.
* These are the 9 players listed in the box score at the conclusion of the game.
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
38 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Holy crap. I can't even believe that
Feels like a million years ago
I have a secret place, inside my mind, where I keep hidden inspiration you wont find.
by Tapatio Man on Aug 20, 2011 11:34 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
The league hit .267 in 2009, .256 this year
That’s a big dropoff. Kendrick’s .290/.346/.432 this year is significantly more impressive than his .291/.334/.444 in 2009, because of the difference in context.
And as the post-Aug. 19 2009 performance showed, the Angels to that point that year had been hitting over their heads.
All that said, the 2009 offense was awesome, and this year, not so much. Don’t know if it requires “major roster changes,” but certainly playing Conger & Trout more and Mathis & Wells less would help.
I should have been more clear on roster changes. The post focused only on batting.
I agree with what you wrote above on Conger & Trout vs. Mathis & Wells. That still leaves an offense relatively short of power bats (benching Wells removes about 15% of our HR’s for this year).
Relief pitching is next. Rodney and Takahashi aren’t worth anywhere near what they are being paid. Thompson and Walden are – at best – inconsistent. Horacio Ramirez isn’t the next Brendan Donnelly. This bullpen has nowhere near the same proficiency as 2002 – 2009. It’s needed for Scioscia’s small ball to be successful.
Starting pitching is as good as any 1-3, then drops precipitously after that. Plus, the minors seems pretty bare compared to recent seasons. Bell just doesn’t seem quite good enough. Chatwood did well for 1/2 season, but is either fatigued or the league caught up to him. Richards didn’t quite get a long enough look prior to injury. Palmer? Forget it.
Roster changes will be necessary for 2012 to overcome the Rangers. Major roster changes will be needed to compete with the best teams in the majors (Red Sux, Yanks, Phils…and possibly the Brewers).
*sigh*
Don’t know, don’t care. People that criticize can kiss my ass. I don’t give a shit
-Kobe Bryant
You want to make history you have to do historic things- Kobe Bryant
I don't think 2009 offense is a fair
comparison. Definitely a baseball anomaly. I know our offense is probably the worst its been in a while. How about looking to 2005-2008 (even w/half season of Tex)
"Every time I think I’m out, they pull me back in" -George Costanza
by Howie's Batting Title on Aug 20, 2011 2:02 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
It wasn't intended to be a fair comparison.
It wasn’t even intended to be a full comparison. I only compared the guys that concluded the game, not the full team batting averages. Power stats are completely absent.
It was intended to compare an obvious high point of our offense to our current doldrums. To make the lack of offense as glaring as possible. I don’t anticipate reaching the 2009 level again. But there sure is a lot of room for offensive improvement.
For having a team that hit .300 in august?
Should change my screen name to Stuck with Premium.
by stuck in Romania on Aug 22, 2011 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions
For a pitcher. The line ups look like this
2009 = FULL OF STRESS. Not wanting to face anyone in any situation. Mistakes will not be fun.
2011 = Meh, not so much stress. One in the same. Most of these batters will put themselves out of their own misery.
There are about 60 pitchers who disagree with you.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 20, 2011 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Even with their futility they've won more against pitchers than they've lost.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 20, 2011 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
wasn't a won/loss comment
it was a fear factor comment. This years line up does not strike fear into any pitcher because the pitcher facing it does not have to work hard for the outs. Our batters are very good at making outs all by themselves. Do you know who Vernon Wells is? he is an example of an auto out this line up has inside it. Now do you understand my original comment sir tizzie?
Yeah
Baseball players don’t think that way. Most of the people in that lineup have proven they have the ability to hurt you. They’re not doing that right now, but if ballers thought like that they’d be fat sitting behind a keyboard. In the real world, even Maffy had 2 home runs. I know you want sports to use your way of thinking but that will never happen dude…ever.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 20, 2011 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions
so they will use your way instead
I’m guessing you never participated, or have been closely involved, in anything competitive before. If you stand out there challenging something with questions, or fears, on your mind. You will end up losing. And Yes I am fat, not your type, but fat. Unlike you my fat is on my waist, and ass, but not between my ears. That is why you have no concept of the mind game in sports. Carry on.
Wrong.
I know more from experience about organized sports at a high level from participation and observation than you’d believe. I understand what goes on in a locker room and on a field. There isn’t a pitcher that faces the Angels lineup and says their easy. You ask the Rangers or Red Sox and I GUARANTEE you they will tell you they are downright surprised at their performance and wouldn’t count on it to be permanent. I can’t say I can explain it. But I know for a fact no professional athlete would ever look at another man and say I don’t have to fear this guy. Point is these dudes have beaten more people than most teams and that means something in sports.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 21, 2011 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't belive you have any experience, so more than nothing still ain't much
and no where did I say easy. I was talking about stress. Stress from one batter to the next. 2009 lots. 2011 not so much. Stress from owning, trash talking, and mind games. Stress from not being able to relax on the mound because of the next guy after the one I’m facing that’s giving me trouble because of that guy on first that is taking too big of a lead. That is what I am talking about. Not physical match-ups of a player in the professional ranks not being able to perform. They are all Pros, so they all, mostly, got up to the show by performing. I know that. Rangers I don’t know, but I would have to say the Red Sox think we are their bitches. So unless you can impress, move on tizzie, I’m done trying to make you understand what I’m typing.
On answering number six
Mark has done all of that without any protection in the order this season. If things start to turn around, and the team begins to perform more like a Major League line-up, Trumbo’s numbers will explode. He may still have that problem with the low and outside stuff. But he will see it more from the beginning of the count instead of getting set up for it, and it being used on him as an out pitch. Learning to lay, or fight, it off. Pitch counts may start to effect our opponents.
Appreciate the Info
Good info, but better to compare against what the club is competing against I think. The teams you mention (Yanks, Red Sox, Phil, and Brewers) are the true barometer I think.
That 2009 team is exactly what it is the past. Need to focus more on how to beat those that the Angels and FO are now looking up at and not down too.
Curious as to what the difference is after comparing to the above mentioned clubs……just not curious enough to take my time to research. Guessing its because I already know that across the board there are many more teams that are better. Thats not something I like to admit, but as I have said before I am not one that has ever drank the punch or bought into the current GM.
It's really painful to see how far this team has fallen.
The inability to properly value Napoli was the most glaring error, and was shoved in our face like wedding cake earlier this week. I wonder how Tony and Mike like tasting frosting through the nose?
The ultimate beneficiary of the undervaluing is our division’s main competitor. It hurts to say it, but Texas has really improved their team. The stumble-bumble Hicks era has ended. I see a serious division rival for the forseeable future.
Sorry, but Hunter played CF in 2009.
Juancho played LF.
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?
3) Left field has seen a drastic reduction from Hunter in 2009 versus Wells in 2011…110 points less.
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?
This seems like it is supposed to support a foregone conclusion.
Supposedly batting average wasn’t supposed to be a reliable stat. In any event, this is about Napoli. Pawning it off as an interesting observation then busting out Napoli when no one bites is kinda embarrassing. Despite his supreme domination of baseball universe, somehow every team in mlb history has won a world series without him and the rest of the teams that do between now and infinity will surely find a way to do so themselves….lol
Someone should publish The Napoli Papers. Subtitled: Gotcha Fanhood Against One’s Own Team Through ‘Research’.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
Wells had a day off bro...
nothing more. And not even that. He scored the winning run lol…
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 20, 2011 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 20, 2011 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Well...
it DOES support a foregone conclusion (that foregone conclusion being the Angels offense has been pathetically weak this year, especially when compared to a high point of August, 2009).
“Supposedly batting average wasn’t supposed to be a reliable stat.” Says who? Batting average isn’t the best statistic for a overall offensive performance (OBP, Slugging %, OPS and OPS+ are far better metrics of overall performance), but it’s reliable in showing one player’s ability to hit the ball in fair player versus another player.
“In any event, this is about Napoli. Pawning it off as an interesting observation then busting out Napoli when no one bites is kinda embarrassing.” Not sure if this was directed at what I wrote in the fanpost or the comments of another. If it’s directed at what I wrote, I don’t understand it.
I see where you're coming from.
"Keep pushing for us." Ervin Santana after NO-HITTER (July 27, 2011)
by thebigtizzle on Aug 21, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Really interesting post
My first reaction was how unfair the comparison is, but that was just my hurt feelings showing. The truth is the truth, and although my hopes are riding high after today’s win (4th consecutive), the truth is that this season’s line-up is pathetically weak, by anyone’s standard.
By the way, my sister and I had the wonderful opportunity to attend that series in Cleveland in ’09. What a feeling it was to look up at that jumbotron and see the numbers
for that line-up at the start of the first game of that series! Unforgetable!
I meant the OTHER Howard!
Awesome!
My wife and I attended 2 games in Cleveland almost a month ago. It was our first visit ever to Progressive Field (I think “The Jake” sounded a lot better). We saw the first of the 3 game series with the Angels (a Monday game). We missed Santana’s no-hitter by 2 days.
Too bad you missed Santana's no-no
I think “The Jake” sounds a lot better, too. My sister and I took the guided tour of Progressive Field. I liked it a lot, but I HATE the guys who have to dress up as mustard and ketchup and run around on the field. I guess that’s fun for kids and all, but I absolutely hate it when teams have guys dress in giant foam costumes as “m-ass-cots”. That’s just a me thing, I know, but thank God the Angels have an actual monkey jumping up and down and not a guy dressed in a giant foam monkey costume (end of rant)!
I meant the OTHER Howard!

by 



























