Mark Trumbo Results Crush Brandon Wood Hype
After play last night, Mark Trumbo had accrued the exact same number of At-Bats as Brandon Wood did in their respective Angels careers. Take a look:
Image from Baseball-Reference.com, click to enlarge.
Wood played in parts of five seasons with the Angels, the majority being in 2010. Except for a cup of coffee last season, a majority of Trumbo's ABs have been in consistent playing time this season. Wood is only nine months older than Trumbo and both were drafted out of high school a year apart ('03, ''04). Wood rode the hype of being an earlier draft selection and having some monster seasons in the low minors to the AAA-MLB shuttle while Trumbo labored in the minors working on his defense at a low-priority position.
Wood's glove made him appear much more valuable but the rap on both power hitters was the same: no walks, too many Ks. Considering all the hype Wood garnered and the complete absence of hype that Trumbo ever received along the way, the numbers at the major league level are shocking:
In the same number of ABs an Angel, Trumbo has 39 more hits, 18 more doubles, 13 more HRs.
The number that really sticks out, though, is Trumbo's 49 fewer strikeouts. For all the Brandon Wood hype, his K numbers were routinely forgiven with a "yes-but" while Trumbo's were always stated as his biggest hurdle to the bigs along with a terrible glove. Trumbo struck out 19% of the time in the minors while Wood's K rate was 23%. It begs a few questions:
- Is four percent a big enough disparity by which the grand poobah prospect-rankers can be exonerated for overrating one player who busted and underrating another who seems to be holding his own in the Rookie of the Year conversation?
- If the excuse an analyst could give is based in the theory of how prospects get on and stay on the radar, is analytical theory useless next to the results?
- Does Angels batting coach Mickey Hatcher get any blame for Wood faltering and/or credit for Trumbo excelling?
The disparity between hype and results is certainly not just in the different defensive positions these two played.
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Just goes to show you
That the games still need to be played and the experts are just guessing as to who would be a success at the next level.
Looking at the spark and contribution of Trumbo, P-Bo, Conger (when he’s allowed to play) and Trout has been much larger than I would have imagined sitting at Spring Training. But here we are — we’re totally rebuilding, but we’re alive and in the hunt heading into Sept.
Wood is a proverbial ten cent head. He just couldn’t pull it together in the bigs. It happens. I think we’ve also seen recently that the Angels organization is not the best fit for some players — Napoli was not happy here, and seems to be relieved to be playing away from the Soth style.
Hatcher gets a lot of shit on this board, but he also presided over the first top to bottom lineup of over .300 a few years ago.
Let's Go P-BO!
"...we’ve also seen recently that the Angels organization is not the best fit for some players..."
I think this begs the question of which players are actually benefited by the Angels organization at the MLB level. Figgins or Lackey might be two such cases, though it could be that they just hit an age-and-skills related tipping point as well.
Would any of Trumbo, Bourjos, Conger and Trout not perform as well or better in most other organizations?
A few months ago, I presented some data in a comment to show that in the Scioscia-era most Angels catchers (not just Napoli) posted better stats in aggregate once they left the Angels than they did during their Angels careers. It’d be interesting to do similar analyses by position.
It's such a crapshoot
Even the best prospects frequently flame out — the history of the minors is full of guys who were given big bonuses and did bupkus in the Show. Heck, Jerome Williams is one!
Witty .sig goes here.
Trumbo never had 101 extra-base hits in a minor-league season
Five years ago, would any Angel fan have been willing to write off Wood’s 2005 for the fluke that it was?
I actually did...repeatedly.
Of course this’ll just further earn me the “pessimist” label, but I was the biggest Wood-skeptic on the block. I hated his strikeouts, didn’t like his swing, and was very anxious about that Rancho park factor. When he graduated to Ray Winder (this was pre-Dickey-Stephens when Arkansas was a hitter’s haven) and his stats substantially regressed, that was a major red flag.
OTOH, I was thought Howie Kendrick might truly become Robinson Cano, and that hasn’t happened yet.
I still think the way Wood was handled is what messed him up.
My guess is if Trumbo spent this year and the next two being shuttled between SLC, where he played, and Anaheim where he sat on the bench, his production would not be near what it is in this number of at bats.
Trumbo expected to be behind Morales, just like Woods was behind Figgins. I think this team may be realizing that when a player is ready for the bigs, he is ready and it does no one any good to shuttle and sit that player.
I don't think they did Wood any favors shuttling him around
But at this point I’m willing to accept the fact that he just isn’t that good.
Trumbo, Bourjous, Trout….these kids already look better than Wood ever did.
Unless of course that major league ready player is blocked by Mathis.
Then, they sit. I just hope Conger isn’t B Wood 2.0
YOU DON'T KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARKSIDE.....
Unless Trumbo can develop better pitch recognition,
he’ll never be a top tier offensive player. Don’t get me wrong. I believe he’s a big part of the Halos success this season and will continue to be a part of it. But, he could be so much better if he had a better eye. Now, could he develop more patience at the plate? Possibly, but usually, a player is the player that he is by the time he’s reached the majors. The key will be this upcoming off-season.
I think we don't know
But I also suspect that some mind-fudgery may be at work here. Wood always played with the expectation, and wore it very badly in the bigs. Trumbo always played against the non-expectation, and used it as anger motivation to learn and excel. When you “know” that the only thing between you and semi-stardom is execution, and then you don’t execute well, that’s got to be extremely difficult to deal with. When no one loves you and all you do is produce, the effect on the mind just have to be different. By all counts, Trumbo is an extremely diligent and intelligent worker.
But yeah, who knows? And who knows if Trumbo, with his bad plate discipline, isn’t a prime candidate for a Ron Kittle-style sophomore slump?
Also, it’s “percentage points,” not “percent.”
Nah, I think you're the Ozzie Guillen of SBNation.
You just substitute raunch for race.
With affection,
Turks.
I think the fact that Trumbo has reached this total in basically one season is telling of how mishandled Wood was.
It took BWood 5 YEARS of sporatic PAs to get to that number. That is scary. He might have just been a terribly flawed player all the time. But I blame the mismanagement.
"I have one word for you...Be careful."
-Jose Guillen
Brandon Wood took 5 years to get this many AB’s because he couldn’t hit the ball when he was called-up. When he he was given the 3B to lose job last year, he still couldn’t hit the ball. What do the previous 4 years have to do with it?
When one steps into the batter’s box, you can either see and hit the ball or you can’t. Unfortunately, Brandon Wodd can’t. If his “psyche” was “damaged” by “mismanagement” (i.e., shuttling back and forth between AAA and MLB), then he wasn’t very tough mentally to begin with, was he? If a guy is hungry, determined, and talented, he will find a way to succeed, in spite of any number of surrounding failures.
I am not sure why it is so hard to accept that some players can be absolute studs through lower levels of competition, but simply can’t master success at the highest level. Brandon isn’t the first, and I truly doubt he is the last. He simply wasn’t as talented as we had hoped.
He has a .618 OPS for Pittsburgh.
They gave him the chance to be a starter too. 218 AB’s. He’s just not that good.
Hype
Wood was a 1st round pick and had a lot of hype. He put up big numbers in the minors during 2005 and 2006, and received just about every non-pitching award that was available to minor leaguers. He was the Angels #1 prospect for multiple years. Woods hype grew when the Angels apparently considered him “untouchable” in trades for major league talent.
As for Trumbo, he was an 18th round pick in 2004. He did not show prodigious HR totals until 2008, and then his power number went down in 2009 before exploding in 2010 in the thin air of SLC.
Wood had enough talent to get to the majors, but his talent has not translated to staying in the majors. I don’t believe Wood was able to adapt to the changes between AA/AAA ball and the majors. Thus far, Trumbo has shown the ability to adapt to major league pitching and continues to get good results. He’s shown average major league production for 1st base. To improve upon his rookie campaign, he must learn to take walks and increase the OBP. It would not surprise me if Wood is out of baseball within 2 years.
Trumbo
Before we get too giddy about Trumbo let’s realize his OBP was below .300 before 8/31.
June = .281
July = .292
August = .304
We all knew he had power in the minors. Before praising Hatcher for ANYTHING let’s see Trumbo raise his OBP to more than .009 points above Adam Dunn. Trumbo has the 2nd worst OBP of any qualified 1B in baseball this year.
Has Hatcher EVER taught an Angels player to be more patient?
so you prefer
a .350 OBP and 0 HRs?
If it is not his game why not enjoy the things that ARE part of his game?
Trumbo could never take a walk, even before he met Mickey Hatcher
Kendrick, Aybar, Bourjos, Trumbo, Wood—they all had bad plate discipline in the minors. Why blame Hatcher when they show up in the big leagues and do exactly what we should have expected them to do based on their prior histories?
Trumbo was 1st round talent
excellent post and replies, but let’s not foget Trumbo also was a highly touted prospect coming out of Villa Park. He was a two-way star and many saw his future as a pitcher. The problem was that he was on the fast track to USC to star there and the only reason the Angels got him was he dropped to the 18th round due to signability concerns, and many saw his future on the mound.
His signing bonues was $1.425 million – he was not the typical 18th rounder – everyone recognized the talent was there, including USC and his family.
Wood’s signing bonus was $1.3 million as a first rounder (one year earlier)
GREAT POINTS
This indicates that the Angels saw something that the prospect reports either ignored or did not see OR did not value.
by Rev Halofan on Aug 31, 2011 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Trumbo's helped a fairly desperate Angels' club this season.
And there’s a lot to celebrate with Mark Trumbo.
I really like his power, his work ethic, his professionalism, and his intellect. He’s a joy to watch in interviews, and seems like he could be a coach in some capacity in the future.
I also think he gets a bad rap for his defense, which has seemed completely adequate to me over the course of a season.
On the other hand, he’s shown severe limitations this season in hitting for average and getting on base, and I don’t know that how much more upside he has. If he can continue to make adjustments and make the translation to a corner outfield spot, maybe he can be Jermaine Dye for awhile, best case scenario.
From a principled standpoint, however, I don’t think Trumbo should merit that much ROY consideration when the season’s done. Even subtracting numerous exciting rookie pitchers, there are a number of exciting position players even in the AL that are likely to have more stunning careers than Trumbo when we look back a decade from now.
I understand that players like Ackley and Jennings will have only logged half a season worth of appearances (Lawrie and Reddick even fewer) come October, but their excellence seems more compelling to me. For someone with Trumbo’s plate appearances, Hosmer seems a better rounded hitter. But then, this year has had a pretty strong rookie crop.

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