Looking ahead at 2012

I wonder if the Mets would take Aybar, Chatwood, and Richards instead? What do you think it would take?

He’s someone that can play all three OF positions, and 1st base. He’s also been on championship clubs. Not a lot of guys in baseball like that anymore.

We really just need someone to cover third base for a few years unless they give Lucho a chance. Whether that is resigning Callaspo or bringing in a guy like Cuddyer or Ramirez.

But I just doubt Big Albert would play 3rd base for us full time. Nobody knows for sure… but I’m going with my gut. I think there is a better shot of Trumbo picking it up in Winter ball than Albert saying he’ll sign a deal to play 3rd base. I could be wrong and I’m intrigued by the idea.

Both are under team control. The team can choose to give Trumbo a raise if they want to, but they could just as easily pay him the league minimum again. He’ll have his chance to negotiate once he hits arbitration.

Your lineup depends on a number of very unlikely events happening. I list them below in order of what I think is least likely.

1) Mark Trumbo plays 3B — I know that the team mentioned the possibility of having Trumbo try out at 3B during winter ball. Still, I do not see this happening for a number of reasons. First, Trumbo tried to play 3B last winter and was absolutely awful. If I recall correctly, he made three errors in one game. Perhaps it was a fluke. Perhaps he could improve. But this seems unlikely, at least to me. Also, to make this move, we have to take Trumbo away from 1B, where he has played surprisingly well. And it leaves both Callaspo and Izturis on the bench, despite very good seasons from each of them.

2) Kendrys Morales plays 1B — This may be even more unlikely than having Trumbo at 3B. I very much hope that Kendrys is able to return to the lineup as the DH of this team. Even better if he can play 1B occasionally. In my opinion, however, it is hoping for way too much to anticipate that Kendrys will be able to play a full season at 1B. By next spring, he will have been out for nearly two years. It does not make sense, in my opinion, to put him in the field or to do anything else that could further jeopardize the possibility of having his bat back in the lineup next season.

3) Hank Conger is the catcher — This is much more likely than 1) or 2) above, but less likely than it seemed a couple months ago. At the beginning of the season, Conger was starting more games than Mathis, and the team subsequently tried to trade Mathis. That gave me hope that the team might sever ties with Mathis and make Conger the starting catcher (or at least platoon him with Wilson). Although this of course remains a possibility, Conger currently is behind both Mathis and Wilson on the depth chart, so this also is something of a longshot.

4) Trout and Bourjos both have everyday jobs — I agree with your prediction that the team will trade away Abreu. I believe, however, that the team will do this to free up the DH spot for Kendrys — not for Wells. If Kendrys is healthy, I believe that Callaspo and Izturis will platoon at 3B; Trumbo will play 1B; Kendrys will DH; and the outfield will include Bourjos, Hunter, and Wells. Barring an injury (or another failed comeback by Kendrys), this would leave Trout to start the season in AAA, even assuming that the team trades away Abreu. In my view, there is only one way that Hunter, Bourjos, Trout, and Wells are all in the lineup, and that is if Kendrys is unable to return next season.

I would offer Wilson the same contract that Weaver got, and then non-tender Mathis and trade Abreu for some minimal salary relief. This still would leave Trout’s playing time in question unless Morales fails to return; there is an injury to Wells, Hunter, or Bourjos; or Morales, Trumbo, or Bourjos is traded. It also would mean that, for better or worse, only one of Williams, Chatwood, and Richards would make the rotation.

The total payroll, if these moves were made, would be $136.5 million, based on the following assumptions: 1) we pay $6 million of Abreu’s salary after trading him; 2) Kendrys returns and receives the same salary as he did in 2009; 3) all arbitration-eligible players receive a 50% raise; and 4) if we add anyone other than Wilson to the roster, we pay him league minimum. If the team wanted to maintain the same $140+ million payroll that it currently has, I could see an additional $5 million being spent on another late-inning reliever.

The lineup would be:

SS Erick Aybar, ~ $4.5 million (projected)
2B Howie Kendrick, ~ $5 million (projected)
3B Alberto Callaspo, ~ 3 million (projected)
RF Torii Hunter, $18 million
DH Kendrys Morales, ~ $3 million (projected — assuming he returns at all)
1B Mark Trumbo, $416,000
LF Vernon Wells, $21 million
CF Peter Bourjos, $416,000
Ca Bobby Wilson, $418,000

Bench: Maicer Izturis, $3.8 million; Hank Conger, $416,000; and three other players.

The rotation would be:

Jered Weaver, $17 million
CJ Wilson, $17 million
Dan Haren, $12.75 million
Ervin Santana, $11.2 million
Jerome Williams, Garrett Richards, or Tyler Chatwood, $416,000

The bullpen would be:

Jordan Walden, $416,000
Scott Downs, $5 million
Bobby Cassevah, $416,000
Hisanori Takahashi, $4.2 million
Rich Thompson, $420,000
Horacio Ramirez, Trevor Bell, Garrett Richards, or Jerome Williams, $416,000