Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

Peter Bourjos, Alberto Callaspo: The ABCs of Underrated D

Totally Zoned In

Defense is underrated. Until recently it was almost impossible to accurately measure and quantify. A player with a lot of assists was considered great. Then nobody ran on his arm and he didn't have any assists and the lower number looked bad but it meant he was that good. But it got foggy when anyone attempted to determine HOW good...

Star-divide

 

There was a time when statistical analysis was an inquisitive, underground movement. It was exciting to get a Bill James Abstract in the mail and engorge my brain in considering that the guy on the TV the announcers were raving about was actually a two-bit hack and the guy the manager put in the game as an afterthought was the true talent. It was great to feel superior. Then this thing called the internet happened. They plugged it in and every dolt who had never been on a date was suddenly gawking on and on about advanced stats. And there is no value to feeling superior to anything or anyone when the guys who share your level of knowledge about a subject prefer math homework to making out.

And so I quit the police department and got myself a steady job. Here at SBN in fact. When I got hired I told Mister Blez that I had read everything Bill James had ever published but I was covering the one team in baseball where I would bet my life not a soul in the front office or dugout had ever read a page of the greatest philosopher the sport had ever known. Representing the team here I was able to revel in division championships at the expense of those who would publish their math homework as baseball analysis, coining the phrase "Mister Sabermetric Spock" in the process.

You see, the issue was one of pursuing truth or pursuing the status of intellectual superiority. I got into the whole thing as an exercise in finding new truths. I got out of the thing when Dweeble Web and Tweedle Browser misunderstood Moneyball to the point of a one-size-fits-all anti-bunting Orthodoxy. That triumph of pseudoscience lasted a few long years until the truth seeking essence of deeper statistical analysis re-emerged. Moneyball gave way to Fangraphs and once again, FANS emerged, a sea change of consciousness perhaps best articulated in THIS ESSAY by Graham MacAree at Lookout Landing of all places.

The holy grail in all of this has been quantifying defense. You know, the half of the game that those oh-so-certain stat-men-boys were totally ignoring. One of the delights of the past few years has been seeing Rob Neyer whipping boy Darin Erstad suddenly become a sabermetric darling as his defense in Centerfield finally gets sized up and is found to be nothing short of historic during the dawn of the age of Scioscia. It was Defensive Wins Above Replacement, dWAR, that revealed Mike Scioscia's eyeballs had already surveyed the terrain that the Spockage Set was climbing, flag to be planted in hand.

Fomenting this revolution was, among others, Sean Smith (an Angels diehard who posts here at Halos Heaven on occasion as RallyMonkey5), who created TotalZone and improved it (as "TZL") by adding location data for every defensive play in the game. Because TZ uses historical data, defense can be measured and quantified over the course of an entire franchise. Translating TZ into its own Defensive Wins Above Replacement allows us to measure players over different eras and assess the impact those with limited time on the team actually contributed versus old stalwarts.

Only 26 Angels have amassed more than 1.5 Defensive Wins Above Replacement. FOUR of them are on the team right now. In fact, since WAR stats are all counting stats and more playing time inevitably leads to more WAR among the palyers that stick around, the amazing thing here is that two of these four current players have compiled 1.5 WAR in under 1,000 Plate Appearances (which although an offensive stat is as good a measure of playing time as anything over large sample sizes, especially among everyday players).

Peter Bourjos has amassed 2.4 dWAR in only 703 career Plate Appearances all of them with the Angels. This is pretty amazing for any player on any team in any era of baseball. For the Angels he is just behind Wally Joyner's 2.5 dWAR. Wally had the luxury of compiling that with the leather over 3,700+ Plate Appearances under the halo. How about other centerfielders in Angels history? If Bourjos maintains his pace, he would surpass Jim Edmonds next season, and the duo of Gary Pettis and Devon White before the 2014 All Star Break. How underrated is Peter Bourjos? Consider the flyball-heavy pitching styles of our three aces and understand how Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver are looking forward to the next two seasons in Anaheim where the Bourjos-Marine-Layer conspiracy plots to hold all missiles in the park.

Alberto Callaspo might be the most underrated feather in Tony Reagins' visor. Callaspo's reacquisition last July was the beginning of the end of Brandon Wood, the admission that 3B had to have at least league average production for the team to compete. Wood found the pine and Callaspo went to work late last year and all of this, compiling 1.9 Defensive Wins Above Replacement in the 730 Plate Appearances he has made through Sunday. That is good enough for 20th all time in Angels franchise history.

The other two current Angels with more than 1.5 dWAR as an Angel are Howie Kendrick (1.7 dWAR in 2,600+ PA) and Maicer Izturis (2.9 dWAR in 2,450+ PA), but historically, only ONE other player in franchise history compiled over 1.5 Defensive Wins Above Replacement in under 1,000 Plate Appearances. This infielder has 1.6 dWAR in only 694 PA as an Angel. Can you guess who it was? Okay, you guess and then click this link to his current website and see if you got it right... and tell him that the Rev sent you, the statistical revolution is calling and it wants him on board... LINK.

Comment 24 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

According to BB Ref, in seven seasons with the Angels and 3391 plate appearances

Bob Boone amassed a ridiculous 7.7 dWAR. This begs the question, if a young Bob Boone and Jeff Mathis were both teammates with Mike Scioscia as the skipper, would Mathis start over Boone?

by LAA101010 on Sep 20, 2011 2:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Bob Boone was awesome

The first year I watched the Angels was 1982. Boone was +20 runs that year, mostly by throwing out 64 of 110 opposing basestealers (58%). Basestealing was a bigger deal back then, and we had this dude named Rickey in our division…

Boone never threw out less than 40% of basestealers during his time with the Angels. Basically, he was what Jeff Mathis would be if he were actually good at defense, and not quite as bad a hitter either (.245 over the 7 years).

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 20, 2011 6:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Would 'innings played' be a more accurate reading of playing time than plate appearances?

In the long run men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.
Walden

by matthiasstephan on Sep 20, 2011 2:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah

But close enough to give you the right idea. Extra precision not always worth the extra effort.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 20, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

I am not a stat master or anything.

I just figured for those that were, and to overcome the slight objection Rev built into the argument, that this would seperate the offensive and defensive stats (making the defensive stats more accurate).

In the long run men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.
Walden

by matthiasstephan on Sep 20, 2011 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with you.

My first reaction was that I do not care how many Plate Apperances a player has on offense when measuring their defensive contributions. Measuring OPPOSING plate appearances makes far more sense.

And I am always suspicious of the idea that getting the number right is not worth the work.

Against stupidity the very Gods themselves toil in vain.

by Stirrups on Sep 20, 2011 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

not about the number being right or wrong

it is about a measurement that can apply across the decades that is in all but the most unique circumstances as accurate as compiling another metric to gage the extent of one’s presence in the field only to find just about the same ratio.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 20, 2011 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are right, in that it is probably pretty close.

It does seem to put a bit of a uncontrollable factor into the stat though. I would think (off the top of my head), that bad teams would be more affected by this (the defensive player being in the field longer, for more opposing at bats) than a good team.

Is compiling Innings played, or opposing plate appearances (perhaps a little more difficult) much more work. Aren’t those numbers already included in raw data and thus it just amounts to changing the algorithm a little (again, stats aren’t my thing).

In the long run men hit only what they aim at. Therefore, though they should fail immediately, they had better aim at something high.
Walden

by matthiasstephan on Sep 21, 2011 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

But until somebody DOES do all the hard work,

you do not know that your number IS “as accurate…in all but the most unique circumstances”.

And until you know that, you do not know that you have isolated a data set that creates a meaningful ratio that can be compared across the decades.

What you have, instead, is a data set that is within reach. And an assumption is being made that all the stuff that is beyond reach is of no value.

Against stupidity the very Gods themselves toil in vain.

by Stirrups on Sep 21, 2011 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Center Fielders

I trust the defensive numbers enough to tell me who was good. But they aren’t accurate enough to tell me whether Peter Bourjos is better than White and Pettis were.

The thing is, I don’t trust my eyes enough to tell me either. My memory is that I thought Pettis was just a bit greater than White when I could compare the two, and Erstad better than Edmonds. But Bourjos vs. Pettis? I can’t judge plays I remember from 25 years ago against plays I saw last week.

With Pettis, White, Edmonds, Erstad, Bourjos, and Trout I’m sure the Angels have outproduced every team in baseball when it comes to great fielding CFs.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 20, 2011 6:47 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm very pleased to see Callaspo get some recognition here.

I remember reading articles about him (primarily directed by FutureAnges.com) when he was in the lowest bowels of the Angels’ minor leagues, along with Erik Aybar. Both were projected to be “great” defensive players, as well as good offensive players.

The Angels are going to have to think really hard before replacing him with; “someone better” at 3B; if he is kept, he will earn only ~$3MM next season.

by wumbug on Sep 20, 2011 8:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Callaspo should be on the roster - just not as the everyday 3B

He’d be great as a utility guy; the only problem with the Halos is that Mighty Mouse is also a utility guy, and Segura is waiting in the wings looking for playing time.

by mustard_man on Sep 20, 2011 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't see that as a problem at all

This year they’ve generally stayed healthy. But we should know that you can’t always count on that. And when someone does get hurt it’s nice to have another good player to fill in. This year we’ve got 4 good infielders for 3 positions, all have at least 400 at bats, and all four have contributed at least 3 wins to the team.

This infield has played great most of the season and along with the big 3 starters, a major reason the team stayed in contention as long as they did.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 20, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was super bullish on Callaspo when he was in the minors.

To a degree equal with Kendrick. How often do we see a player of his profile in the Angels system?

229 BBs vs 145 Ks. He was maintaining a K rate under 5% in the minors, and walking far more than he struck out. He had the highest contact rate in all the MiLB. All while hitting consistently above .300.

It’s great that his glove has finally caught up with his batting eye. He’s a legitimately valuable player now.

by Turks Teeth on Sep 20, 2011 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm with you on this.

Callaspo (spousal issues aside) has really grown on me as a player. I feel like if we actually had a competent lineup, no one would even notice his lack of power because all the other stuff he brings to the table outweighs that, IMO. Guy plays a great 3B, better than the Figgy I remember. Has the highest OBP on our team (I think Abreu might still be a couple points higher). More walks than Ks. I just don’t think 3B is our problem on offense, people overvalue the long ball.

"I have one word for you...Be careful."
-Jose Guillen

by IE Angel on Sep 20, 2011 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

This was assigned to me

missed that one completely. HA, see now I feel superior with my advanced metrics all published and substantiated.

by Rev Halofan on Sep 20, 2011 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

I've never heard of that site you linked.

Is Lati Mes Dot Com some sort of new internet startup website?

Arte Went Biblical sounded nice until it was clear it didn't involve sitting the twenty-three million dollar man.

by snowhor on Sep 20, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

You get assignments?!

"Lose your pants and only good things can happen."-MayhemInTheHood

by Mayheminthehood on Sep 20, 2011 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ahhhhh...DUH!

I didn’t see the Moneyball banner. Makes sense, nice tie-in.

"Lose your pants and only good things can happen."-MayhemInTheHood

by Mayheminthehood on Sep 20, 2011 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Slight issue I have with dWar, mainly because I don't fully understand it beyond the basics,

Is the disparity between season-to-season performance.

For example, Carlos Lee this season has 2.0 dWar, tied for the highest in the National League. At 35. But his career dWar is -4.7.
How is that possible?
There is no chance he suddenly became a defensive wizard, I’ve seen the Astros play a few times, he is the same player to the naked eye.

"I have one word for you...Be careful."
-Jose Guillen

by IE Angel on Sep 20, 2011 1:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Halos Heaven is the Number #1 Angels Fan Blog according to QUANTCAST. Our Angels Fan Site is YOUR Angels Fan Community!

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Morales-mainx-large_small
Albert Pujols – A Man of Faith
Small
Summation of the Angels 2012 season so far
Sinatra2_small
Sign the petition to end "Buttercup"

Recent FanPosts

Kendry_morales_small
The Most Frightening Word in Baseball: "Rebuilding"
Avatar_small
By The Numbers: MLB Starting Pitchers
Small
Angel Games Boring?
Angelmike_small
Terry Smith. You make the call.
Nick_small
Are the Angels the anti-Rangers?
Wrigley_field_small
A Serious top 5 of why Pujols is below the Mathis line.
Angelmike_small
The Top Ten Reasons Albert Pujols is hitting below 200

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Leaders of the Free World

4323_1105939621665_1622022962_290465_5300842_n_small Rev Halofan

Mostinterstingman_small cupie

Tn96_small WiHaloFan

Whammy10_small blast21dave

Fearless Crew

N1222371_8709_small scottnak

Halos2_small Stirrups

Anarangels_small Mayheminthehood

Cant-tell-if-trolling-or-just-very-stupid_small linkbruin

Avatar_small rghan

Alternate-club-logo-no-highlight1_small RexTookMyStash

Celebrity Chefs

306996053509_0_0_small PhiSlamma

Angelsbathroom_small mattwelch

Angels_ywc_album_small yeswecan

34_adenhart_small RallyMonkey5

Userpic-105-100x100_small Suboptimal

The_prior_art_cover_small Turks Teeth