Lyle Spencer Loves Michael Young

by YouthofToday on Sep 26, 2011 10:12 PM PDT

Rangers' Michael Young just drove in his 105th run of the season with just 11 homers. That's clutch hitting, any way you slice it.#Angels

http://twitter.com/#!/LyleMSpencer/status/118543317653925889

Brilliant analysis Lyle... it's not like RBI totals are an indication of hitting in a lineup with a bunch of high OBP guys in front of you or anything. Young and his "clutch" hitting wouldn't have anywhere near the same number of RBIs if he was a Halo this year.

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His numbers sure are good.

by Wally's World on Sep 26, 2011 10:15 PM PDT reply actions

It's OK - I straightened things out with Lyle. He's cool with it.

I pointed out to him that Young was 11th in the AL in Win Probability Added and that our very own Bobby Abreu was the most clutch hitter in the league. I was a little surprised when he proclaimed, “I stand corrected!” Since the proof was in black and white, he did not even attempt a rebuttal.

When I explained that RBI’s were a statistic of opportunity, and that Young simply had more opportunities than anybody else in the AL, he completely understood and accepted it.

He’s fine now.

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Sep 26, 2011 10:51 PM PDT reply actions

the day he gets up to speed on the sportwriting highway

is the day I blog at warp factor 9

by Rev Halofan on Sep 26, 2011 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Is that apart of the SBN network?

"The Transplant" (So. Cal boy stuck in NYC)

by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Sep 27, 2011 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

but captain, the engines will ne hold

Well, come see a fat old man some time!

by Moondoggy on Sep 28, 2011 5:40 AM PDT up reply actions

RBI is being pissed all over nowadays.

Among MLB players with 150+ AB with runners in scoring position, Young is second only to Victor Martinez with a .376 BA.

by moralesforpresident on Sep 27, 2011 1:32 AM PDT reply actions

But you can't drive someone in unless they're on base already

Young would not have had as many RBI’s if he batted 4th on the Angels. Young has 187 AB’s with RISP; Torii only 147. That’s a big difference. Young might have finished with +/- 85 RBI’s with the Halos, which would still be good, but not great. Torii would be well over 100 RBI’s with the Rangers, and if he played all his home games in Arlington, would probably have over 30 HR’s.

Context matters. Young is a good hitter. But as RallyMonkey5 points out below, he also a product of his environment.

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Sep 27, 2011 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions

Taking advantage of an opportunity is a good thing, though

And people automatically dismiss it. I would rather have a guy who hits better with men on base than with the bases empty. Yet people tend to scoff at the RBI as mere luck or a product of somebody else’s production.

All hits are not created equal. That’s why slugging % and wOBA were invented. A hit with a man on second is a hell of a lot more important than a hit with the bases empy. RBI is still relevant if kept in perspective, IMO.

by JeffJoiner on Sep 27, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions

True...

…yet please sight evidence some player’s hit better with RISP. Talent is talent. If their is a discrepancy I would think it had more to do with pitch recognition/plate discipline… something the Halos don’t exactly emphasize.

All hits are not created equal. True, yet cite some evidence some players have a magical ability to create “more equal” hits.

Michael Young hit worse with RISP in 2010, considerably worse in 2009, etc.

by YouthofToday on Sep 27, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions

Example: Izturis vs. Kendrick

Kendrick’s stats are better in every department. However, with a man on base in a close, important game, who would most fans rather have at the plate? Izturis.

The beauty of baseball is that it can’t be truly cataloged. For as long as stats have been kept and expanded, there is still nothing out there that can definitively determine why Izzy is a better choice to hit in a key situation than a guy who has better numbers.

by JeffJoiner on Sep 27, 2011 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree

I believe in the stats, but I also believe in clutch.
Around here it is pretty black and white – but I believe in the grey area.

Some individuals, I believe, rise to the occasion.
In my own humble sports experiences, I have found that I am far more than my average when the shit is on the line. I can’t explain it, but I know it’s real.

Reggie Jackson once said something like “At the plate, I always looked at it as an opportunity to succeed, not a chance to fail”
I don’t think it can be truly cataloged either.

Fanpost Disclaimer: Young is just having a good year on a team with lots of baserunners. Not arguing that he’s clutch (or not) by any stretch…

Go Tampa Bay!

by Halo Hurricane on Sep 27, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

SLG and wOBA don't care about RISP

You must be thinking of Win Probability Added. The fact that WPA does not strongly depend on wOBA is exactly why many people dismiss RBI and other RISP stats.

by Suboptimal on Sep 27, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm not that advanced

Most of my knowledge comes from you and mattwelch. I just know that a hit can be measured in several different ways. Whether or not it resulted in a run is one of them, SLG and wOBA are two others.

by JeffJoiner on Sep 27, 2011 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Jeff, you're a good guy, so let me help

The “clutch” stat that I linked to above is more in line with what you are describing. Read that link if you haven’t already.

Basically it says that Bobby Abreu sucked as a hitter this year, but hit well when it counted. In other words, he was a “clutch” hitter this year.

Michael Young, on the other hand, hit roughly the same whether hitters were on base or not. He’s still a pretty good hitter. But he’s not special because runners on base. He’s simply continuing his “normal” hitting ability. It just so happens that sometimes (actually, many times) runners are on base.

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes

by johnnyangel101 on Sep 27, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Thanks

by JeffJoiner on Sep 27, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I would submit that the counting stats do not deal with the pitching/defensive events.

You cannot extricate any difference on defense from the numbers being tallied for measuring “clutch”.

It should be assumed that “clutch” situations for batters are defined by “clutch” situations for pitchers and defense, so a batter’s ability to just hold average should be a sign of ability.

But look at Young’s own numbers for this season:
.300 with the bases empty (327 AB’s)
.387 with a runner 1B (106 AB’s)
.403 with a runner at 2B
.350 with a runner at 3B
.311 with runners at 1B & 2B
.391 with runners at 1B & 3B
.438 with runners at 2B & 3B
.375 with bases loaded.
.376 with RISP (189 AB’s)

Young’s BA is lowest is the bases empty. At all other times (whether the runner is in scoring positon or not) he bats higher. And not all of those categories are small numbers.

Could this be explained by a change in the approach to the batter, with more focus being spent on the baserunner(s), rather than merely Young having some innate ability that he doesn’t bother to draw upon when nobody is on base?

Against stupidity the very Gods themselves toil in vain.

by Stirrups on Sep 27, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Or...

Sample size issues. Take a look at his 2010 and 2009 numbers in the same scenarios.

There simply aren’t enough PAs in these specific situations to draw meaningful conclusions over the course of 1 season.

by YouthofToday on Sep 27, 2011 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

That's why I added the AB numbers for bases empty and runner at 1B

100 AB’s should be a good enough number.

Against stupidity the very Gods themselves toil in vain.

by Stirrups on Sep 28, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Young is a good player

" With Haren bolstering the rotation, the Angels are set up beautifully for 2011"- Another East coast biased reporter

by Halos2011champs on Sep 27, 2011 6:33 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

Michael Young

Would not be the same hitter without the Arlington Ballpark. He’s had a good year for sure, but of his 11 homers only 1 was hit on the road. He’s hit 321/378/401 on the road, and 353/384/547 at home.

Callaspo has hit 290/368/377 for us, so Young would have been only a minor upgrade offensively. Callaspo is a much better fielder.

My verdict is that having Young instead of Callaspo would have made no difference in the standings, and cost Arte Moreno 16 million dollars plus whatever prospect we would have traded to Texas. Young’s a nice player. So is Callaspo, and so is Maicer.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Sep 27, 2011 6:45 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed.

What I’m curious to is if this season if the Halos are really looking to replace Callaspo at Third. When in the line up, he did fairly well. And if they do go out for a power hitting 3B or plan on moving Trumbo to third, does that make Maicer expendable?

RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09

I blog about the Angels at First2Third.net

by Jay Cal on Sep 27, 2011 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions