Mr. Moreno, Accounting Has Something To Show You
by Suboptimal on Sep 29, 2011 2:32 PM PDT
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With the book closed on 2011, we can make finally tally the relative value of the commodities exchanged on January 21....
Assets ----- Not paying Mike Napoli $5.8M Not paying Juan Rivera $5.3M Pity money (<3 Alex) $5.0M ----- Total Assets $16.1M Liabilities ----- Moneybomb! $23.0M Mike Napoli 5.5 WAR $27.5M Juan Rivera 0.7 WAR $3.5M Vernon Wells -0.3 WAR $1.5M ----- Total Liabilities $55.5M Net Loss ----- Projected on 6/24 $29.2M Actual $39.4M
If Tony Reagins never picks up the phone on January 21, the Angels are competing for a postseason share right now. But he did, and so they are not. Human retrospection is a shaky game, but this is as simple as it gets.
It's a purely synthetic assessment, of course, and the idea of interchanging dollars and WAR is pretty abstract. But how far could it differ from reality? By 10%? 25%? Even if $40 million is twice the actual figure, the trade is a disaster. Plus with Mike Napoli under Texas control next year, and Vernon Wells due to cause heartache through 2014, the balance sheet is only going to get worse.
So who cares about Arte Moreno's pocket change? Put it this way. MLB is not a democracy. It's a plutocracy. As a fan, the only way you can get what you want is if some billionaire, who will spend more on his dinner tonight than you will earn in your lifetime, decides that is in his financial interest to give it to you. Making the playoffs is where fan desire and fiscal incentive meet. Market pressure is our only input into the closed system.
Arte Moreno's Angels have spent over a quarter-billion dollars during 2010-2011, obliterating the previous franchise-record payroll in two consecutive seasons. They've won just four more games than a .500 team would have. If reason, common sense, fan outrage, media derision, public humiliation, and the even final standings can't shame Arte Moreno into careful, thoughtful, and measured action, then maybe his broker will.
Accounting on line two, Mr. Moreno.
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Target demographic is LA right?
We in the OC don’t matter…
by WhatShouldIThrowToday? on Sep 29, 2011 2:51 PM PDT reply actions
Also...
If we keep Napoli, Mathis plays less.
It’s not much, but the increase in Mathis’ playing time is also a liability (he had less than 0 WAR, right?)
by lightupthehalo29 on Sep 29, 2011 2:51 PM PDT reply actions
Pick up?
Tony made the damn call, and paged Alex when the Toronto GM refused to answer the damn thing.
Awesome.
Just awesome.
Tim Salmon: The once and future Kingfish.
by Teixeira Who? on Sep 29, 2011 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions
You're such a rebel Suboptimal going after our supreme Overlord.
"It's our money," owner Arte Moreno said.
I am LMAO that every fan that is still watching baseball now knows who Mike Napoli is.
MLB.tv and ESPN are wearing themselves out talking about him today.
"It's our money," owner Arte Moreno said.
who is money bomb
Gmj isn’t playing anymore…from what I remember.
by Halos in DE on Sep 29, 2011 3:34 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Kaz, GMJ and Wells were all money bombs still on 2011's payroll
Sure would have gotten tiring burning all of those 100-dollar bills one by one. Might’ve taken all year to “light those babies up, again and again.”
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Sep 29, 2011 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I was reading this without seeing who authored it first, and I was thinking this looks like Suboptimal's stuff...
And then bingo! I look and sure as hell it’s him. Great stuff as always Sub!
I woke up in a great mood; I don't know what the hell happened.
Not sure if this was pointed out in the game thread last night...
Mike Trout: .220/.281/.390/.672 (0.9 WAR)
V. Wells: .218/.248/.412/.660 (-0.3 WAR)
135 PAs vs 529 PAs.
We could’ve theoretically picked up 3-4 more wins playing a nineteen-year-old.
by Turks Teeth on Sep 29, 2011 3:42 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think a 10-year-old might have out-WAR'd VW.
I love this team.
by Downing Rules on Sep 29, 2011 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
135 PA means Trout still qualifies as a rookie next year, right?
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some tool named Designatedforassignment from Athletics Nation
by 2pintsofbooze on Sep 29, 2011 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We discussed this during yesterdays GameThread
The consensus is he is still a rookie
The current standard of 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club (excluding time in military service or on the disabled list) before September 1 was adopted in 1971
From Wiki
I guess it depends if they use ABs or PAs
He is over 130 PAs but under 130 ABs. I linked to mlb rules page, and it says same thing. I guess we’ll find out next year.
The key point is "before September 1st"
From Jeff Mathis' TOPPS card: "Jeff is a defensive catcher, but he can rake it when it counts." Jeff has a lifetime .199 MLB batting average
Here is quote from MLB rules page
Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
Link. I didn’t catch that “25-player limit” on my first perusal of the rule. It’s not as eye-grabbing as September 1st.
So Trout can win ROY of the year next year. Good to know.
Not necessarily.... It depends on how you parse it still.
Parse 1:
a) 130 AB, or
b) 45 days
during 25 player limit
Parse 2:
a) 130 AB, or
b) 45 days during 25 player limit
See the difference?
Speaking of which, how long was Trout on the 25-man before 9/1?
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?
He was called up July 8, sent back down August 1, recalled August 19th
He makes it under by about 8ish days.
for some reason I thought it was 140
but if what eyespy says is true than he’s still good. nice
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some tool named Designatedforassignment from Athletics Nation
by 2pintsofbooze on Sep 29, 2011 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Truth...hurts.
Then what, Mr. Morero?
Not sure all the kings horses and all the kings men can put the Angels back together again.
Not disagreeing regarding the Angels
But how do you explain a team like the Red Sox, who have spent way more money, have Bill James on the payroll, a sabermetric boy genius as GM and still can’t even make the playoffs?
They're just lucky I guess.
My response to your letter of February 19, 1976, is - kiss my ass.
Sincerely,
Bill Baxley, Attorney General
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Sep 29, 2011 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions
The explanation is simple:
L
A
C
K
E
Y
...on the road....
by Jack Kerouac on Sep 29, 2011 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions
That's not really the whole story
He struggled the whole year, and they were still winning. What really hurt them was Beckett and Lester having an abysmal September.
The executive summary would be: shit happens
The 2011 Red Sox were still a good team, even though they were crippled by injuries at precisely the wrong time of the year, and Lackey and Crawford were much worse than anyone anticipated. Even with all of that, the Rays needed a triple play and a late-inning home run to win on Tuesday, and the Yankees to blow a late seven-run lead to close it out on Wednesday, along with an unlikely comeback by Baltimore. That’s what makes their collapse so delicious—it was just so goddamn improbable.
I don’t have an interest in defending Theo Epstein here. I’m really not a fan of some of Boston’s recent moves—not in the objective sense. Money strongly correlates with winning, but it doesn’t guarantee it. The Red Sox just flopped. The Angels did as well or better as could possibly have been expected, yet they still fell well short.
*Two* late-inning home runs
:) I’m still giddy about them.
"And that’s why to hell with the traffic, Diane, we’re staying until the end of the game, and that’s final." ~brokenyard, 8/18/11
Oops, sorry, I'm an idiot and didn't read TUESDAY.
"And that’s why to hell with the traffic, Diane, we’re staying until the end of the game, and that’s final." ~brokenyard, 8/18/11
Injuries and Lackey/Crawford
If they had Bucholz and Youkilis healthy for the last 4-6 weeks, they’d have locked up the Wild Card.
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Sep 30, 2011 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm gonna harp on this all off-season so get use to it:
Mike Napoli had the best year of his career. Vernon Wells had one of the worst.
Does that make the trade acceptable? Of course, not. I still think it shouldn’t of taken place. Nevertheless, hindsight is 20/20 and what seems like the worst trade in Angels history could’ve easily been a wash (not taking into consideration the money) if Napoli played like he did in 2010 and Vernon had a year that was more in line with his career averages.
Why would you want to pay all that extra money for a dude that basically is a more consistent Juan Rivera? No idea. Bad move. But its magnified by how bad of a year Wells had and how amazing of a year Napoli had.
"The Transplant" (So. Cal boy stuck in NYC)
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Sep 30, 2011 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Vernon's stats outside of Toronto have been consistent for two years now.
I think he’s performing to the level he is capable of performing.
Vernon Wells 2011 Stats (.218/.248/.412) and 2010 road stats (.224/.299/.400). The front office shouldn't have been surprised.
Napoli is 29, in the peak of his career
It’s totally natural that he would put up his best numbers this year. Wells is 32 going on 50, by the sight of him running the bases. His career had a very obvious peak around 2004-2006, and he’s been rolling downhill ever since then. No one should be surprised that he’s getting worse. Certainly, we’re all shocked at the size of the gap between the two players, but the Angels shouldn’t have needed the benefit of hindsight to know that the gap would be there.
I disagree about Napoli
You think its “totally natural” that a dude who had never hit over .275, whose OPS highest was .960 (in a season where he only had 278 PAs), who had consistently struck out more and more each year to suddenly hit .320, have an OPS of 1.076 and K only 80 times after 135 times in his previous season? His highest WAR before this year was 2.6. This year it was 5.5!
I don’t think you think much of situational hitting but in 2011 Napoli OPS was 1.230 with 9HRs 109PAs with runners in scoring position.
In 2010, his OPS was 641 with 4 HRs in 137PAs with runners in scoring position.
C’mon. Napoli went from mildly scary to a effin’ monster.
I get your overall point. Napoli is hitting his peak, Wells is declining but at least admit no one saw it coming that Napoli would have THIS good of a year.
"The Transplant" (So. Cal boy stuck in NYC)
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Sep 30, 2011 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
No one expected him to hit .320 / .414 / .631
But .280 / .380 / .550 in the peak of his career would not have surprised me at all. That would’ve been better than Vernon’s best season ever, which was, incidentally, all the way back in 2003.
It’s a moot point though. This discussion would only be relevant if we were talking about swapping straight across for similar contracts. Reagins and Friends shouldn’t have even thought about the proposal this long.
Yeah, we're on the same page here...
My only point was that Napoli had a monster year that magnified the discrepancies between Naps year and Big Splash’s year, which was his worst ever. And because there is such a discrepancy, the fanbase is reacting with a ferocity that might not be so intense of they had both played their career averages. Aaaaand I am just tired of the all the 20/20 hindsight shit talk with no real substance.
OBVIOUSLY, i don’t lump you in with that crowd, though, Sub.
"The Transplant" (So. Cal boy stuck in NYC)
by BryanHarvey'sMoustache on Sep 30, 2011 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
The anger has become a fever at this point
Pretty understandable considering how the season ended. I don’t really have a problem with it though. It’s only a slight exaggeration from “really incredibly stupid trade with no redeeming value whatsoever” to “OMG WORST TRADE EVARRRR!!!”. Besides, if enough people get mad, then maybe something will change.
You are wrong
Most people on here knew that Napoli hadn’t reached his full potential. And knew that Scoiscia was stiffling his progress.
Sure .320 was a reach, but his OPS and SLG were not.
You cite his ‘runners in scoring position’ as if it means something. To me and most sabermatheticians it doesn’t. We expect it to balance out to his overall average given time. Especially given his limited at bats and that Mike was ask to pinch hit. We know that Napoli needs to play regularly and is cold coming off the bench. This year his ‘RiSP’ bounced back.
The big deal is that Napoli grabbed the FO by the ears.
I hear Napoli is available at the end of the season
There is your big Splash!
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
I blog about the Angels at First2Third.net
Hindsight is 20/20, but foresight in the FO should be at least 20/25.
Tony Reagins is blind! Buy that man a white cane.
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
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