Projecting Vernon Wells... Hope Springs Eternal?
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 13, 2012 12:31 AM PST
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PrintOh, Wells. I wrote this on April 6 2011 in a Halos Heaven postgame thread: "Wells will be fine..." fully in anticipation of a second half turnaround. And guess what! He really wasn't bad last year, in the end. He was horrific! Plate appearance after plate appearance I would hope and ever so slightly wince in anticipation of Vernon giving us something... anything... But he hit like he was visibly wearing his 20+ million dollars contractually owed in a suitcase chained to his wrists. At the ripe old age of 32, Vernon hit 25 homers but batted .218 with a .248 OBP. By nearly all measurements, it was the worst offensive season of his career. Wells is under contract for 3 more years at a cost of over 60 million dollars. I could go on, but writing these sentences is stressing me out.
So, what can we* expect out of Vernon Wells for 2012? Allow me to put on my optimist hat (I'm seeing a bowler/derby type) and skip down gumdrop avenue for a brief moment. Vernon Wells was the 'unluckiest' hitter in the majors last year. Since 2000, there has only been ONE qualified player with a BABIP lower than the .214 Wells posted in 2011. That dubious honor falls to Aaron Hill with a ridiculous .194 BABIP posted in 2010 with the Blue Jays. Basically, every time Vernon Wells made contact the ball would ricochet off the third base bag, off the home plate umpires face mask and into the pitchers mitt.** That's the kind of luck we're talking about!
*We know what Vernon Wells expects out of Vernon Wells... the simple matter of a .300/30/100 AVG/HR/RBI line. Easy!
**May, or may not have actually happened.
Now, at this juncture you might be all like, "hey, what about his peripheral stats... have you seen his declining walk rate and increasing strikeout rate??!!" And my response would be something like, "well, um, yeah..." There's no sugar coating (even on gumdrop avenue) such a sharp drop in plate discipline. It doesn't bode well for any meaningful recovery when coupled with his age 33-season (the notorious downslide of a professional's career). How much of his insanely low BABIP was down to luck or aging/skill decline/injury is a difficult question and I am unfortunately in no way qualified to answer it. However, we do know that Vernon started pressing when he couldn't find his mojo early on in 2011. And when you press and try to change your fortunes and get a streak going, it's very easy to forget to make the kind of adjustments you used to make... and consequently spiral. Spiral into a hitting hell. And have twitter reflect it.
So, a respectable projection ignoring terminal skill decline and mostly being injury free? There are a number of xBABIP calculators out there in the baseball blogosphere that can be found here, here and here. I played around with the Fangraphs one and got a number I would be happy with, based purely on the comparison of career stats and what Wells 'achieved' in 2011. A wRC+ of 112. Hooray! Wait, what does that actually mean... it means Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles. With similar profiles (low BB-rate, mediocre K-rate), in 2011 Jones posted a slash line of .280/.319/.466 with 25HR and 83RBI to get a wRC+ of 110. Ladies and gentlemen, that could be our 2012 Vernon Wells!
It's a new dawn in Halo Land. Because, Pujols! He should take some of the pressure off Wells. Hopefully Vernon Wells will take some of the pressure off Vernon Wells too (this is a good start). I'll still probably slightly wince during his first 100 AB's until we get the all-clear signal that he's going to be alright (or conversely sirens indicating he will not). But it's ok. Because, Pujols! And Trout! Angel fans can breathe a sigh of relief that the front office that got us into the contractual mess of Vernon Wells is not a part of the decision making process anymore. Hallelujah! The Angels should be fine. Wells will be fine in my opinion if he can put up numbers similar to 2011 Adam Jones. I'm too blessed to be stressed. I think. That is, until I quote myself quoting myself next year on why Wells will be fine again... Oh dear... I believe I have fallen into a Juan Rivera Wormhole...
This Fan-Post is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.
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Excellent post
I hope you are right. I share your optimism. I think the 100 AB threshold is about all we should tolerate from Wells. If he’s not vastly improved by then, it’s Trout time.
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
sorry my bad.
Anyhow, I’d love to see Wells do well, but I’m pulling for Trout to break through and grab his slot. it would inject more speed into a lineup that is as slow as it’s been in the last 10 years. Aside from Aybar and Bourjos, there isn’t a whole lot of speed on the base paths.
If for no other reason than having Albert in the line-up and shear "dumb luck"
Wells will put up better stats in 2012. However, he will never be worth his contract, nor is he worth blocking Trout from getting playing time.
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
Yeah I know, Trout is the future (now)
Luckily, with Hunter’s contract expiring (although I secretly hope he is brought back on a small, incentive laden contract as a 3/4 outfielder type) Trout should be a full time regular no longer than 2013. Any slow starts this year, and he’ll be up sharpish in any case (hopefully).
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 13, 2012 6:08 AM PST up reply actions
Trout and Trumbo
need to be our corners for the next 4-5 years. I’d love Torii to be brought back for one more season as a back-up.
for some reason my brain added pop-up to the title of this like one of those weird pictures from the 90's everyone was all into.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 13, 2012 7:10 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
this is actually supposed to be a picture of a shark I guess.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 13, 2012 7:13 AM PST up reply actions
Kill John Lennon?
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
by Commander_Nate on Jan 13, 2012 8:47 AM PST up reply actions
No, that was Regiie Jackson
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
Reggie Love?
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
Roger Moore?
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
Rip Torn?
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
by mustard_man on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Michael Talyor?
Forget Tebow
Andy Lee is the second coming of Jesus
-ME
by DAD OF VLAD on Jan 13, 2012 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Taylor Mays?
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
Willie Brown?
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
jim brown?
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
Tim Brown?
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
Tiny Tim
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
by mustard_man on Jan 13, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
tiny nate archibald
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Erin Andrews
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
prince charles
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
i think that ends it
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
Dude! I totally forgot about those!
I had one. What happened to that thing? I’m spending the day sifting through my garage.
BASEBALL!
Where were you on December 8th, 2011 - Pujols Day?
by Rally Manatee on Jan 13, 2012 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
I was expecting Wells to be Juan Rivera 2.0
Then Rivera was better than him last year. Maybe I should dust off the old jersey…
Scioscialist Party of America - Redistributing your defense since 2000.
BABIP
His extremely low BABIP wasn’t really bad luck, but due in fact to the lowest LD rate in the majors last season (12.3%). However I agree that he will improve this season with less pressure, because that LD rate was by far the lowest in his career, and when it hops back up to the 15 to 17% range next season so will his BABIP and other offensive statistics.
by Glenn DuPaul on Jan 13, 2012 8:58 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
That's what worries me
That guy popped up a ridiculous number of times. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I think his infield fly ball percentage was 112%. No, YOU think about it.
This isn’t a Jeff Mathis case where he never had any hitting skill and we’re all just hoping for a miracle. The guy knew how to hit at some point. Never as well as his salary warrants, but he certainly was an asset at the plate.
If he can hit 25 HRs again and have his OBP in the .320 range, I’ll be ecstatic.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
Yeah it did seem like he popped up a ridiculous amount of times
Just a normalizing (if that is possible) of his LD% would help. That will come with him making better contact and better adjustments.
I would also be happy with 25 HR, .260-.290AVG, .320 OBP range.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 13, 2012 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
This.
A BABIP that low over that many ABs is no longer really an indication of “bad luck.” It’s an indication of shittyness.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
True !
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
by mustard_man on Jan 15, 2012 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Pujols takes a lot of pressure of Wells
Regardless of what he said I think the pressure got to me and explains part of his problem. If he doesn’t turn it around this year, I don’t think he ever will. I am optimistic.
I'm firmly in the cautiously optimistic camp
Wells will have no pressure to carry the team and baseball is very much a comfort and confidence game. He can bat in the 6 or 7 spot and possibly turn it around.
Sad part is
We’d all be stoked if he hits that line you projected, but Trout would probably still put up a better line than that if he got the starting gig.
It is sad, however
I don’t know if Trout would definitely put up better numbers this year. Depends on if his BB% holds up in the majors. But I would hope so in 2013.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
v dub
Is gonna gonna shock a lot of ppl this year..(in a good way)
me and the wonder dog got high!
by YOUknowulovetheIE on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 AM PST via mobile reply actions
VW Will never be worth the money he's getting..
Toronto WAY overpaid, and they found a sucker to take on his contract. That being said, if Wells can get back to the .275 range with 25hr/85-95rbi most of us will be satisfied. Not happy, but satisfied
We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be.
No.
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
I am cautiously more optimistic than most about VW
As said earlier hitting with pujols will help, even more so if Trumbo returns. I suspect Soth will manage his ABs to have him bat against mainly lefties and give him days off against righties. Finally if last season showed him anything, even at his peak value (which he never reached) he was still a worse bat than Trumbo and Howard which will take even more pressure off of him.
However, we need Trout to get to the ABs he deserves, we don’t want to Wood him.
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
Hey, keep the comments clean.
This is a family-friendly site.
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
I scanned my comment twice looking for what was offensive
…… and then I took a sip of coffee and hit my head on a desk
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
You didn't actually say anything bad its just the way you worded the last line.
Pretty sure snowhoris just pointing that out not actually saying you did something wrong.
by MoralesHomers on Jan 13, 2012 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
No, I actually am deeply offended.
If there’s one thing I truly stand for, it is that this should be a God-damned family-friendly site.
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
Cock a doodle dooo
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
yeah i got that
just ashamed i had to read through it twice before I could see what the joke was…. hence the hitting the head on the desk
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
Wells is horrible against righties
Horrible!
by Brody on Jan 13, 2012 1:27 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Gubi looks kind of like WTY in that shot
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?
Just 6 per 100
If VW had averaged just 6 hits per 100 ab’s he would have hit .278. Although he is being paid as a .330 hitter, I know I would have been a lot happier with that .278 than the .218. So if a few pop-ups fall in and a few ground balls sneak thru…
alright bull running
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
er durham.....
autocorrect plus fat thumbs de-snarkified that comment
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
Saw the movie but don't get the reference
Did you actually mean bull droppings?
Its referencing one of my favorite lines in the movie
‘Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? That’s 25 hits…25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points…ok. There’s 6 months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks, that means if you get just one extra flair a week, just one. A gork, you get a ground ball, you get a ground ball with eyes! You get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium.’
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 2:08 PM PST up reply actions
I think about that line every season
Whenever a ball drops just inside the line, or just out of reach, especially if it’s for or against a young player.
If Vernon is mentally fragile enough to get stressed by a trade to a new team
Which, I might add, he had the power to veto—then I seriously doubt that he is really all that blessed.
I dont know, I think anyone that goes to twitter to tell the world he isnt stressed about sucking
is probably stressed about sucking. It makes sense too.
Reagins probably tried to play it up- you are the big splash we had planned all along, you are gonna remake this lineup, be the face of the franchise… then he goes out tries too hard, gets hurt and his season falls apart.
I dont expect much from him, but at least trout is waiting if he does fail again.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 13, 2012 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
Cut him some slack
He was practically Cannadican
by eyespy on Jan 13, 2012 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Heh Buddeh, what are you talking aboot?
Your Angels: Telling Pythagoras to go to hell since 2004.
by sheisalovelyladyandmyapologiestoher on Jan 13, 2012 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
I'm worried he won't do as well as you project
but still does better than last year. Where’s the break-point where Sosh decides to drop him? What if he’s on pace for a .250/.300/400 with only 18-20HR and 80rbi?
There is no break point
After all, Jeff Mathis accumulated 1,360 plate appearances. It took an intervention to stop giving him more.
Vernon would have to hit .168 through June to get pulled. Trout would have to hit .407 in Salt Lake to get promoted. And then Trout would sit while Kendrick played LF and Amarista played 2B.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jan 13, 2012 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
trout is not ready
as long as he’s doing that “taking walks” and “hitting for power” bullshit
"id take 5th Dimention Wormhole Rivera over Wells any day of the week"
-clover_black
by the king of CERA on Jan 13, 2012 10:14 PM PST up reply actions
he really needs to work on slapping it....
getting on first and just letting the inning end without scoring
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
That's what she said....
"When my mother was pregnant with me, they did an ultrasound and found she was having twins. When they did another ultrasound a few weeks later, they discovered that I had adsorbed the other fetus. Do I regret this? No, I believe his tissue has made me stronger. I now have the strength of a grown man and a little baby."
Productive Outs
Trout really needs to learn to hit the ball to the 2B with 1 out and a man on second. Nothing like advancing the runner to 3rd for the next hitter with 2 outs.
by YouthofToday on Jan 15, 2012 7:58 AM PST up reply actions
35.3% O-swing % for Wells
Means that he draws weak contact more often and drops his BABIP and LD% to horribly low levels. He’s got to stop chasing pitches and hit the ball to RF if a turnaround season can be expected.
Rosita: Tell me, Carmen, do you know what foreplay is?
Carmen: No...
Rosita: Good! Neither does El Guapo.
Indeed
This will be something to look out for when Spring Training and the season starts. He isn’t a good enough hitter to make great contact outside of the strike zone, so he does need to go back (somehow, if possible) to staying ‘within his game and approach’ in order for a ‘successful’ turnaround.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 15, 2012 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
I worked on a fanpost for a few days
Regarding a potential Wells comeback, but couldn’t find anything conclusive to support my wishes. Unfortunately I think the .245/.287/.443 projection we get from Rotochamp will be the reality for his age 34 season. Sigh…
Rosita: Tell me, Carmen, do you know what foreplay is?
Carmen: No...
Rosita: Good! Neither does El Guapo.
So Vernon's "bounce back" season will rival Trout's first full season?
Zips:
Vernon .255/.298/.422
Mikey .267/.338/.414 (plus Szymborski’s educated guess of 39 SB’s)
Considering that Trout is probably our best leadoff option, as opposed to Erick or Peter, I would give Vernon a very, very short leash. In spring training.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
Much as I suspected above
However, Trout is still SO young, we really should temper expectations. I believe he is fully capable of putting up that line in 2012 or even surpassing it. He could also struggle badly and put up a Wells circa 2011 line.
At the very least, keep him in AAA for two months to make sure he finds his stroke and at the same time avoid “super two” status. My hope is over those same two months Vernon also finds his stroke, and Dipoto finds a sucker to take him.
I agree
Based on the comments of Dipoto and Scioscia its pretty much a given that our outfield will start the season with Wells (if healthy). There is no way he is getting dropped or cut at the moment.
If Wells (or perhaps, even Bourjos – although I hope he doesn’t regress) does display a level of crappiness early on then I would hope for the sake of our competitiveness we would call up Trout (assuming he is doing well in AAA) midseason or so. Irrespective, Trout MUST be a starting OF in 2013. He is too good to let stagnate. But a poor performing Wells really doesn’t help us at all, totally lose-lose.
However, if Wells has a bounceback year (here’s hoping) we get the bonus of added 2012 value (i.e. his hitting and LF defense) and he would be easier to flip in a trade. As a team might be less afraid that his skill decline is terminal and that he has a few years left (not to mention his contract would have obviously decreased by 1 year from 2012 to 2013). Basically what AA managed to convince Reagins about in 2011.
by TheQuestforMerlin on Jan 17, 2012 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
Cut him.
Eat the salary. Move on. Give Trout a job.
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