Eyeballing 2012 Payroll: $151 Million?
With the news that we avoided arbitration with Alberto Callaspo to the tune of $3.15 million, that leaves just one arb-eligible player left, Erick Aybar. Using Baseball Reference, we can begin to estimate the 2012 payroll now. And for the first time, I see that B-Ref has been overestimating it.
BR lists four Angels at being arb-eligible, instead of the two, for a combined estimated total of $18 million (which gets them to a projected 2011 payroll of $159.9 million). But two of those four are Reggie Willits and Jeff Mathis, who will not be offered arbitration by the Angels this year. Now that Callaspo is off the table, we can use the MLB Trade Rumors estimate of Aybar's 2012 salary at $4.7 million to conclude that the arb-total will be around $8 million, not $18.
We then adjust the "Additional Players Needed to Fill 25-man" from 5 to 7, and at the estimated rate there of $724,000 per warm body, that gives us $5.07 million instead of the current $3.62. So all in all, let's say the B-Ref estimated of $159.2 million overshoots the mark by around $8.5 million. Or $8.2 million if you prefer nice round numbers.
LONG STORY SHORT: We are on the verge of adding Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, replacing Jeff Mathis with Chris Ianetta, and signing our DP combo to extensions, all while increasing payroll over 2011 by around $8 million.
That's astonishing.
4 months ago
mattwelch
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But, but, the backloaded deals are gonna, like, ruin us in four years or something!
Awesome write-up, Mr. Welch. Thanks.
Winning doesn't matter. -Lyle
There's a little crossover in 2014
When we still have The Albatross, yet Albert’s and CJ’s contracts start to get pricey. But the new TV deal kicks in around then, I think.
We may presumptuous, but Jerry seems to at least have a plan. There finally seems to be someone in the front office who knows how to use Excel. Or they’ve at least bookmarked Baseball-Reference.com.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
You know what part of it is?
For years now, we’ve made sure every offseason includes a new multiyear deal for a $5 million reliever or two, maybe an $8 million innings-eater. This year? LaTroy Hawkins, for 1 year at $3 million. When you don’t overpay for mediocrity, it’s amazing how you can get better bang for your buck.
Now if only he could flip Vernon Wells….
Exactly
No Mathis, no Quinlan, no Willits and of course, no over-priced “closers”. We have a GM who understands the importance of managing on the margins! Pony up for elite talent, bargain hunt to fill out the roster.
I get the No Mathis
but Quinlan and Willits were low paid utility players. Why the hate?
by WhatShouldIThrowToday? on Jan 16, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
still a waste of roster spots and millions of dollars
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 16, 2012 3:24 PM PST up reply actions
And this year, we are going to pay Abreu 9million to sit on the bench
when Jeremy Moore or even Willits would provide valuable to the team (pinch running/defense)
by WhatShouldIThrowToday? on Jan 16, 2012 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
yeah but abreu, like wells, is the mistake of an exiled failure and at least brought some value to the team over the life of his contract
and I do not share your optimism of willits’ or moore’s abilities to hit major league pitching as well as abreu.
While it is certainly not 100% accurate, the Major league equivalency for moore’s 2011 season looks like this- .245 average, .272 obp, .435 slg, 123strikeouts, against 16 walks and 11 home runs. Really not much to get excited about.
(Abreu hit .253 with a .353 obp, 113 strikeouts and 78 walks.)
Until someone starts teaching these prospects how to take a pitch and work a count, they better start swinging for the fences (trumbo) since no one wants low average, low obp strike out machines.
by Balls and Strikes on Jan 16, 2012 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
Neither Abreu or Moore is gonna play full time
Moore provides speed and defense off the bench, which Abreu does not.
by WhatShouldIThrowToday? on Jan 16, 2012 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
Because they weren't very good at the sport of "baseball"
They each had their brief moments, but…
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jan 16, 2012 3:30 PM PST up reply actions
But Willits is a scrappy white utility player
Who gives hope to all the unathletic white guys out there like me.
It’s the same reason everyone loved Rex Hudler, David Eckstein and Reggie Willits.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
May I point out that Eckstein has TWO WS rings, and a WS MVP trophy.
If the Halos don't care about the way they play, then why should I?
Hud and Eckstein could actually play a little
Eckstein was 4.4 WAR for us in 2002
Hudler was 2.6 WAR for us in 1996 (which he smartly parlayed into a multi-year deal with the Phillies)
Reggie’s career WAR = 1.3
Robbbb’s career WAR = 0.0
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jan 16, 2012 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
With a WAR like that
why wasn’t Quinny forced to put on the gear and catch… oh wait. Scioscia. Got it.
"Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Peter Bourjos" ~ markinca
Robbbbbb ain't scrappy
That’s the key. It the perception that these guys “hustle” and “gut it out.”
Whether they actually produce is secondary. Image is everything.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
Everyone romanticizes the .344 rookir campaign and the guy that mashed LHP once upon a time
Willits? Check. Reagins? Check. Mathis? Check
Um Eckstein was good
Comparing Willits to Eckstein? I should slap you
Why doesn’t Willits have a job? Oh yeah he sucks
Willits? Check. Reagins? Check. Mathis? Check
I know the sentiment is dump/flip VerNone...
But I really think our best shot at ridding ourselves of the Big Dump is for him to have a good year this year and sell high either at the trade deadline or after this season. Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, we have to root hard for the POS to do well this year!
LMFAO!!!! THIS!!!
no shit right!!!! i couldnt believe how dumb TR acted or if he was really that retarded no ffense to the mentally challenged…
Mark trumbo HR Counter-21
Randy,
Your Mark Trumbo “HR Counter” got stuck. Seems kind of, eh… retarded, ya know?
No offense though, K?
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
by LAASurfin on Jan 16, 2012 11:29 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
wow
that is some great management of payroll. A significant upgrade to our offense and the rotation and only increase the payroll by so little over the previous year.
Albert certainly did his part to help payroll this year
He agreed to a contract which makes him only the 5th highest paid player on the team this year, at $12 million.
Does this extra money
give us leeway to make a run at David Wright/Granderson/Longoria/Am I banned yet?
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
I'd want to get rid of Vernon Wells
and use the surplus cash to offset the cost for whichever team would actually want him. And I don’t put too much stock into that no-trade clause. The fans here already hate him, why not get a fresh start somewhere else?
I doubt he'd ok a trade
the team he plays for just signed Albert Pujols, and has one of the sickest rotations in baseball. Much of the pressure he felt last year to be a run producer and live up to his contract will be gone since a lot more focus will be going Pujols’ way. He’s got a legit shot to play postseason baseball for a contender, which has to mean something to him too. I just don’t see there being another team he’d prefer to play for at this moment in his career.
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some tool named Designatedforassignment from Athletics Nation
by 2pintsofbooze on Jan 16, 2012 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
he waived his not-trade clause when we acquired him
a no trade clause is like a weiner not a toenail, if you chop it off it don’t grow back.
interesting, I hadn't heard that before
this gives me much more hope
"You realize that Ive been posting on AN since 07 on this name and I am one of the most rec'ed posters there right?" - Some tool named Designatedforassignment from Athletics Nation
by 2pintsofbooze on Jan 16, 2012 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
I think at this point all we want is health
When I flip a coin I dont say heads or tails, I say Halos or Spurs
by ItCouldHappen on Jan 16, 2012 5:30 PM PST up reply actions
Are you saying that
Granderson is available?
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jan 16, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
What do you think it will take to get him?
After this off-season, I have no recollection of this Del Ninja character we used to discuss.
Well I did hear Buherle went to the Marlins at 4 years/56 mil
Think that means they’re out on Wilson
CJ Wilson is OUR douche now!
Can Dipoto go to work for the federal goverment and balance the US budget?
A wise man does not need advice and a fool won't take it.
Obamacare=Wells?
Arsenal FC ~ Middlesex CCC ~ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
by UK Halo on Jan 16, 2012 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Can it just be opening day already?!
"Every time I think I’m out, they pull me back in" -George Costanza
by Howie's Batting Title on Jan 16, 2012 12:01 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Does this mean we have a screaming deal for 2012?
Or that we were overpaying grossly in 2011?
"Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read" ~Groucho Marx
It's not really an either/or question, is it?
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
Best 8 million ever!
Great write up, Matt. I had no idea it was that close.
by JeffJoiner on Jan 16, 2012 6:13 PM PST via mobile reply actions
HH has just been mattwelch'd
I always feel smarter after reading these posts. It gives me the ammo I need to silence the Mariners fans around me.
"I have something 95 percent of all those All-Stars only wish they had: a World Series ring. If I had to choose between that and being an All-Star, it would be no contest. I’d grab the gold ring and never look back." -Tim Salmon
They should be pretty easy to shut up
In the past ten seasons (2002-2011)
Seattle 758-862 47%
No postseason appearances
Angels 909-711 56%
1 WS win, 6 postseason appearances
If that doesn’t stop them, then a brief history lesson should be in order:
° Richie Sexson, $50M/4 years
° Carlos Silva, $46M/4 years (the first two with Seattle, the second two with Cubs while Seattle paid Chicago $9M to offset salary, in a trade which brought Seattle…)
° Milton Bradley, costing Seattle $24M/2 years, being DFA’d in May of the final season with Seattle eating the remainder of his contract
° Chone Figgins, $36M/4 years while clearly in the swoon phase of his career, starting fights with managers in the meantime
My experience is that even the most vocal Mariners fan scurries back underneath the refrigerator when faced with a few cold facts about his teams’ players, field managers and general managers.
"Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read" ~Groucho Marx
by George Kaplan on Jan 16, 2012 9:17 PM PST up reply actions
That's a poor track record
For one of the top organizations in all of baseball.
"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." - Woody Hayes
by johnnyangel101 on Jan 16, 2012 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
Glad as I am that he's on the mend...
…Dave Cameron remains a rose-tinted, one-eyed imbecile. There’s something about that name that turns its holders into the most hateful of human beings:
I see red people
by The Limey on Jan 17, 2012 1:34 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And now Aybar's in it $5.075 mil....
That re-sets my calculations at around an $8.2 million over-count at B-Ref, which would put the projected 2012 payroll at basically $151 million even.
Prediction - Abreu to Detroit.
Smaller Payroll, I’m calling it right here.
Unlike this cat, my love for the LAA will never die.
I see the mutually beneficial here.
But there are free agent options.
Unlike this cat, my love for the LAA will never die.
Lotta DH types out there, so demand will not be high
Abreu is insurance policy for Morales at this point. Which is the kind of thing to have.
Mike DiGiovanna reads Matt Welch?
From today’s LA Times Sports Now section:
With all of their arbitration-eligible players under contract for 2012, the Angels now have about $145 million committed to 18 players next season. Their final payroll is expected to be about $150 million, only $8 million more than in 2011, despite the additions of marquee free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, whose deals were back-loaded.
Just a day after mattwelch posted it above on HH…
"Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read" ~Groucho Marx
It doesn't take a genius to read Baseball Reference!
And for some people, it’s even part of their job description!
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