Where Walden comes unstuck

Nice piece looking at Walden's struggles with a two-strike count. Among the 19 closers with 30+ saves last season, Walden ranks 18th, 17th and 19th for BA, OBA and SLG when he has two strikes on the batter, and that is when the wheels tend to fall off.

Tl/dr version - he needs to work on his slider

5 months ago The Limey 27 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Just looking at the heatmap...

…it looks like the left-handers are hitting the ball low in the zone – perhaps the slider isn’t doing enough to deceive them?

And right handers are hitting high in the zone – ignoring the slider, because he can’t throw it for strikes and waiting for him to come back with the heat…

I’m sure you can probably

I see red people

by The Limey on Jan 6, 2012 4:35 AM PST reply actions

...check this, but I don't know where

I see red people

by The Limey on Jan 6, 2012 4:35 AM PST up reply actions

I think it would be helpful...

if he would pitch some batters backwards…

He took a very little league approach to the majority of the hitters by coming after them with the fastball and really only throwing the slider when he was ahead with two strikes. His pitch sequence was very predictable and couple that with him not being able to throw the slider for a strike and you start having problems finishing batters. All the batter needs to do is spit on a couple sliders out of the zone and they are back in a hitter’s count sitting on the fastball.

I think if he would start some ABs with a get-me-over slider he wouldn’t necessarily have to go back to it on 0-2 or 1-2. Is he going to get me to chase the slide piece or is he going to rear back and throw it by me? I dunno…

by BigGame48 on Jan 6, 2012 9:07 AM PST up reply actions

So what you’re saying is that it was all Mathis’s fault. Yeah, I figured.

by Rock Island Line on Jan 6, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions

Beat me to it

I see red people

by The Limey on Jan 6, 2012 1:19 PM PST up reply actions

Sounds like a fair assessment...

…if only he’d had an experienced catcher to help him out, the sort with a reputation for helping a pitcher keep his runs down…

I see red people

by The Limey on Jan 6, 2012 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

Really interesting stuff

I had done some research into Walden’s issues last year but hadn’t found that.

Developing a better slider is easier said than done though.

"Why [pitcher wins] should be taken as a record of the pitcher's ability is a conundrum to which no one has as yet vouchsafed an answer." M.G. Lloyd; Baseball Magazine - 1908

by Nathan Aderhold on Jan 6, 2012 6:35 AM PST reply actions

Thanks for this

I’ve been puzzling over Walden all year, and by the end I’d come to the camp that didn’t trust him as a closer for 2012. I recall being dressed down, rightly so, for using save percentage as part of my worry. I know, I know, it’s not a good stat. This article gives me some clarity, and convinces me that, as I’d suspected, Walden is currently an incomplete relief pitcher. I’d love to see some comparisons with other young power relief pitchers who either failed or succeeded in developing a secondary pitch.

by Rock Island Line on Jan 6, 2012 7:12 AM PST reply actions

They need to bring percival in to talk to him.

Percy was pretty similar when he first came up. Then a couple seasons in he developed that curveball and mastered his changeup and became unhittable.

by Balls and Strikes on Jan 6, 2012 8:46 AM PST up reply actions

I don't think you're remembering correctly

I’m fairly certain Percy was throwing the curve from the beginning. Besides that, he was most “unhittable” his first few years in the majors and was pretty steady after that (excuse the shitty formatting):

Year ERA K/9 BB/9
1995 1.95 11.4 3.2
1996 2.31 12.2 3.8
1997 3.46 12.5 3.8
1998 3.65 11.7 5
1999 3.79 9.2 3.5
2000 4.5 8.8 5.4
2001 2.65 11.1 2.8
2002 1.92 10.9 4
2003 3.47 8.8 4.2
2004 2.9 6 3.4

I believe you’re correct that the change-up developed later in his career, right around when he lost some juice on his fastball. His curveball was really just a “show me” pitch and I don’t recall him finishing off a whole lot of batters with it, except early in his career when he caught them off guard and they took it down the middle.

Your sentiment may be spot on, though: Percy had a great career essentially throwing only his fastball, without the benefit of pinpoint control. You could say Waldo has an even better fastball, harder with more sink. I wouldn’t mind seeing him develop that slider more, but I think if he just learns to control that fastball a bit better that should really be all he needs.

by dmhead on Jan 6, 2012 9:35 AM PST up reply actions

This is spot-on.

Percy had a curve-ball from day one. A decent breaking 12-6 curve that came it hard – like low 80’s I’d guess. He had better control with it early in his career when he was a set-up man for Lee Smith and then his first year or two as a closer.

Then, he basically used it, as dmhead said, as a “show-me” pitch. Every once in a while he’d break one off that was knee-bending – but that was very infrequent.

It was later in his career when he basically gave up throwing the curve. It was then that he developed a pretty solid change-up a la Trevor Hoffmann. And it did coincide with his decreased FB velocity.

Walden is a bit more wild than Percy (it seems) but he has a more GB inducing fastball. I think he is just fine – just let the kid pitch and don’t bother him. Maybe a change-up is the way to go with him, too. But either way, he isn’t costing us games. I’d rather go with a cheap, good stuff closer than worry about spending real money on a Ryan Madsen type. There are better places to spend money than on 60 innings

How does this team win with this offense? Hey, anyone....DRAW A WALK!!!

Jim Scully
Jim Scully Home

by jimmuscomp on Jan 6, 2012 10:57 AM PST up reply actions

Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument

I didn’t remember the curve from the beginning, but you’re right, the point is get the guy someone who lived by the fastball to coach him through the rough spots.
I like the idea posted above about pitching guys backwards. He has the stuff and can get by being a little wild if he can get more swung on, and missed k’s.

by Balls and Strikes on Jan 6, 2012 12:58 PM PST via mobile up reply actions