Hearing trade rumors regarding Erick Aybar got me wondering if Andrew Romine would be an adequate replacement for 2014. I used a simple, yet highly unscientific and imperfect method to come up with these numbers:
|2013||E. Aybar||A. Romine (Actual)||A. Romine (Edited)|
Method: I extrapolated Romine's 2013 batting numbers over the same number of plate appearances as Erick Aybar in 2013.
589/123 = 4.7886.
From here I took all of Romine's counting stats (R, H, 2B, etc) and multiplied them by my constant (4.7886). I recalculated BA, OBP, SLG, & OPS using Romine's new counting stats. I used the constant-multiplication method to find his new oWAR, dWAR, and WAR.
Although this method is extremely inaccurate, it's a decent-ish starting point to begin exploring the difference in value between Aybar & Romine.
Note: I used http://www.baseball-reference.com/ for all stats.
My take: 2013 was sort of a down year for Aybar in terms of bWAR (4.3 in 2012 & 4.4 in 2011 compared to 1.7 in 2013). His dWAR was the lowest it has ever been in his career signifying either a down year on defense, or a decline in his defensive skills. Baseball reference valued Romine's defense in 47 games more valuable than Aybar's defense in 118 games. In the batter's box, Aybar is clearly superior.
If you believe Romine can provide great defense while providing average (or slightly below average) offense over a full season, and you believe that Aybar's years as a great defender are over, then Romine's value to the team might be similar to Aybar's. Especially if you consider salaries.
If you do not believe Romine is a defensive wizard, or you believe that Aybar still has a few 4+ WAR seasons left in the tank, then Aybar is probably more valuable (perhaps even when considering salaries).
The catch: Would you rather have Aybar at SS and Romine on the bench, or have Romine at SS and trade Aybar to fix our rotation problems?