Official 2014 MAICER Projections

"[insert runaround non-answer response here]" - Jerry Dipoto - Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

They have a name. They have been finalized. Halos Heaven, this is the bright and shiny object to which I've referred throughout the series of raw numbers.

It's come to this, folks.

No longer are my projections simply "HH Angels Projections." They now have a name: Mathematically Acquired Inquisitive Comparison and Encompassed Result. Or, for short, MAICER.

As I did last year, I will post the screengrabs of each player's finalized projections. But they look different this year.

Instead of their simple finalized line of stats (which I have in a separate spreadsheet), I have things laid out better. The numbers I shared with you at the beginning of the series? Those are known as the "rMAICER" figures, or raw MAICER projections. Those are the "first-draft, rough copy" numbers I shared with you that may have seemed overtly optimistic. I ran them through deeper analyses as the process moved on--deeper analysis of patterns unique to each player, pitch F/X data, comparison to patterns of players most similar to each player, and other analyses (you think I'd give away the entire process?).

In addition, these screengrabs will show each player's rMAICER totals (which you saw already), along with their projections run by four other systems, which I deliberately chose because of the different outlooks each bring, the different methodologies used by each, and the variance between all four of them. These four are ZiPS, Steamer, Oliver and Davenport. You will see those four projections available for each player on my projected roster, with the exception of Carlos Pena, who received full projections from only ZiPS and Oliver (Steamer projected him with one plate appearance in 2014, while Davenport did not even run a projection for him). At the bottom of each player's grid, highlighted in red, are each player's finalized MAICER projected statistics.

If you don't want to blind yourself with eight separate screengrabs and squint trying to identify each player and their comparisons, I'll have the "TL;DR" version at the bottom, printed like the rest of the normal text in this article, in a simpler, easier-to-read format. So if that's you, scroll past the screenshots and head straight for the normal text.

For the rest of you, let's begin! And just a reminder, CLICK ON EACH IMAGE to enlarge it. You won't get anywhere trying to read them without clicking them. They are posted in sequential order, beginning with the starting position players. Fields left blank indicate that that particular projection system did not project a clear total for that statistic, and did not project the statistics needed to back-trace it.

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THINGS TO NOTE

  • Strictly going by OPS, Kole Calhoun had the largest drop (5.6%) of any starting player between rMAICER and MAICER, followed by David Freese (5%), Josh Hamilton (4.7%) and Albert Pujols (4.1%).
  • Also going by OPS, J.B. Shuck is the only position player who got better between rMAICER and MAICER.
  • I severely underestimated Tyler Skaggs in rMAICER. I'm still not sold on him being a quality number-three or better, as you can see by my final numbers, but it's clear that he's better than I took him for at first.
  • Brian Moran is going to be a whole lot of fun to watch. When your whole number in your K/9 rate breaches double digits, you're making a game fun to watch.
  • Joe Smith is not going to be the right-handed coming of Scott Downs, but he's still going to be arguably our most reliable bullpen arm, just ahead of Dane De La Rosa and Ernesto Frieri.
  • Speaking of Frieri, it looks more and more like 2013 was a fluke, severely skewed by Texas (as I made note of).

THE "TOO LONG; DIDN'T READ" VERSION


STARTING POSITION PLAYERS

Chris Iannetta, C: .227/.346/.382, 39 R, 76 H, 14 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS, 61 BB, 110 SO, .728 OPS, 2.1 WAR

Albert Pujols, 1B: .288/.360/.533, 86 R, 160 H, 41 2B, 1 3B, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 6 SB, 2 CS, 59 BB, 75 SO, .893 OPS, 4.5 WAR

Howie Kendrick, 2B: .285/.327/.430, 71 R, 160 H, 34 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 64 RBI, 11 SB, 5 CS, 29 BB, 111 SO, .757 OPS, 3.5 WAR

David Freese, 3B: .259/.335/.391, 59 R, 126 H, 26 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 49 BB, 114 SO, .726 OPS, 1.9 WAR

Erick Aybar, SS: .276/.316/.390, 70 R, 153 H, 30 2B, 6 3B, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 18 SB, 6 CS, 29 BB, 67 SO, .706 OPS, 2.9 WAR

Josh Hamilton, LF: .268/.328/.468, 73 R, 143 H, 30 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 5 SB, 1 CS, 47 BB, 137 SO, .796 OPS, 3.0 WAR

Mike Trout, CF: .329/.424/.571, 116 R, 196 H, 36 2B, 9 3B, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 SB, 7 CS, 94 BB, 124 SO, .995 OPS, 10.2 WAR

Kole Calhoun, RF: .267/.336/.457, 72 R, 136 H, 29 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 8 SB, 5 CS, 53 BB, 107 SO, .793 OPS, 2.5 WAR

Raul Ibanez, DH: .243/.306/.449, 57 R, 110 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, 40 BB, 107 SO, .755 OPS, 1.3 WAR


RESERVE POSITION PLAYERS

Hank Conger, C: .245/.314/.408, 27 R, 68 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 24 BB, 65 SO, .722 OPS, 1.1 WAR

Carlos Pena, 1B/DH: .226/.351/.409, 23 R, 36 H, 8 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 26 BB, 52 SO, .759 OPS, 0.2 WAR

Andrew Romine, IF: .238/.299/.300, 25 R, 53 H, 5 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 21 RBI, 6 SB, 2 CS, 19 BB, 58 SO, .600 OPS, 0.4 WAR

J.B. Shuck, OF: .281/.328/.363, 21 R, 48 H, 7 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, 5 CS, 11 BB, 27 SO, .691 OPS, 0.3 WAR

STARTING ROTATION

Jered Weaver, RHP: 32/32 G/GS, 204.2 IP, 15-9, 3.12 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.38 K/BB, 4.4 WAR

C.J. Wilson, LHP: 33/33 G/GS, 206.1 IP, 14-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.20 K/BB, 3.2 WAR

Garrett Richards, RHP: 34/28 G/GS, 171.2 IP, 10-10, 4.25 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.92 K/BB, 1.0 WAR

Hector Santiago, LHP: 34/26 G/GS, 151.1 IP, 11-9, 3.51 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 4.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.00 K/BB, 1.9 WAR

Tyler Skaggs, LHP: 29/29 G/GS, 162 IP, 10-10, 4.22 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.50 K/BB, 1.4 WAR

BULLPEN

Brian Moran, LHP: 39/21 G/GF, 51.2 IP, 2-4, 0 SV, 4.01 ERA, 1.374 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.28 K/BB, 0.3 WAR

Kevin Jepsen, RHP: 53/9 G/GF, 49 IP, 3-3, 1 SV, 3.86 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.59 K/BB, 0.3 WAR

Michael Kohn, RHP: 57/12 G/GF, 50.2 IP, 2-2, 1 SV, 3.73 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.04 K/BB, 0.6 WAR

Dane de la Rosa, RHP: 62/17 G/GF, 61 IP, 4-2, 2 SV, 3.25 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.08 K/BB, 0.8 WAR

Sean Burnett, LHP: 53/11 G/GF, 46 IP, 2-2, 1 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.18 K/BB, 0.5 WAR

Joe Smith, RHP: 68/13 G/GF, 61.2 IP, 5-3, 4 SV, 2.92 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.14 K/BB, 1.2 WAR

Ernesto Frieri, RHP: 64/49 G/GF, 64.1 IP, 4-3, 35 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 4.1 BB/9, 13.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.28 K/BB, 1.1 WAR

The entire team finishes with 50.6 WAR, a .271 batting average, a 3.63 ERA, a .784 OPS, 186 home runs, a collective K/9 rate of 8.0, a collective K/BB rate of 2.40, a 1.282 WHIP and a .554 winning percentage (among countless other statistics).

The 50.6 WAR seems especially high, but keep in mind that 20.2% of that is Mike Trout. If you removed him and replaced him with a player that would be defined as "average" (i.e. a 2-win player), the team goes down to 42.4 WAR. So the figure does seem astronomical, yes, but Mike Trout is just so completely epic that he, as 1/25th of the roster, accounts for more than 1/5th of the total WAR.

The team's total W-L record comes out to 82-66, which, of course, falls 14 games short of being a full season. But keep in mind that some players are bound to get injured/demoted/traded/released/etc., and others will come up from AA, AAA or other teams, even, for brief stints, and may get decisions. Assuming that that combination of players plays to average (i.e. a .500 winning percentage collectively), the team finishes, overall, at 89-73. Assuming that they go replacement level (i.e. a .294 winning percentage collectively), the team finishes, overall, at 86-76. Either way, it's safe to say that this club is improved from last year.

This is the first year I've gone this in-depth with my projections. I've always said it's a work in progress and this is the furthest it's ever progressed. Let me know what you think!

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