FanPost

29 games remaining: Reasons for optimism

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This is my first attempt at a FanPost, so before anyone shoots the messenger, I want to lead with this disclaimer: I acknowledge that the Angels have not been a great baseball team in 2015. I am not "optimistic" like a, myopic, glass is always full, homer cheerleader like Roger Lodge. But I do see a few reasons for hope of a 2015 Angels postseason, both from the eyeball point of view, and with some basic statistical support.

The Angels currently sit today, September 3, at 67-66, with 29 games left. Realistically, we know it is probably going to take at least 89 wins to ensure themselves of at minimum a Wild Card spot. (That was the "get-in" total for the AL in 2014.) So we'd have to expect a 22-7 run, for certainty. And it would be most optimal for them to pick up as many of those 22 wins as possible (as opposed to the other remaining opponents) against the 3 main teams that stand between the Angels and the postseason, in order to help dent their records as well. They've got 6 against Houston, 7 against Texas, and a 4-game series still to come in Minnesota. The chance of a 22-7 run (or better) happening is definitely on the low side, but it's not implausible, and not completely unrealistic. Winning the AL West looks very unlikely, though either or both Houston and Texas could realistically falter down the stretch a bit themselves. Neither of those teams look as strong as K.C. or Toronto. Regardless, I'm taking the viewpoint of just "get-in" the playoffs, even as a Wild Card, and I'll take our chances with Garrett Richards pitching in a do-or-die game in the Bronx against Tanaka. The Yankees may have a good record, but their starting pitching overall is lacking, and they are far from solid themselves, with all their aging veterans falling apart at the end of a long season. If the Halos can win the WC game, then they probably get a do-over and matchup against K.C. again in the ALDS. Simply as a fan of the game and my team, I don't necessarily care about the specific odds, I just want to see the Halos get-in the postseason, just to have a chance. And I'd love it for them to extract a little revenge and knock the Royals off their self-made pedestal!

I think virtually everyone would agree, the main difference between the Angels in 2015 versus the 98-win team in 2014 is largely due, if not solely due, to the output of the offense. Every single one of our individual offensive players have at least slightly underperformed to their own capabilities/ceilings in 2015 (including Trout, Pujols and Calhoun) this year, so as a fan, it gives me a little hope that there is still a higher ceiling for this team. If only these top 3 hitters alone were to bump up their production levels in September/October, that may be enough to make a postseason push. And no, we won't be a better team in September just because Trout hits like an MVP again. (Or just because David Freese has returned from the DL.) The Angels can be better if the sum of all their parts simply plays to their own expectations or capabilities. Will it happen? Not necessarily, but I believe that there is still likelihood of improvement above simply being a .500 club. Small improvements from 4-5 of the guys in the everyday lineup (compared to their current season production) gives the Angels a legitimate chance to win each of the remaining 29 games, and perhaps we even get a couple bounces/breaks/games that will thus go our way.

A bonus this month would also be due to expanded rosters. With the organization having a large number of mediocre, or replacement level "AAAA" players (guys like Navarro, Green, Cowgill, etc.) it should also give us a boost down the stretch, compared to our rivals. Having 35+ plus guys at their disposal can only help with their depth of these "average at-best" replacements. Especially for pinch-running, situational and defensive replacements in extra inning or tight-and-late situation games in September. The Angels' defense has been average this year, not great, but adequate and shouldn't change much in September, so that shouldn't have much factor either way.

I'm optimistic though regarding both our offense, and our pitching staff-- with some "advanced" statistics helping to support my belief as well. I know that their are many other stats that reflect true player performance, trends and potential, so the following assumptions can only measure so much. For the sake of this post, I am using OPS as a way to measure a hitter's general impact, and WHIP to measure a pitcher's overall effectiveness (starters or relievers, the more outs you get compared to baserunners, the better chance you have to succeed).

Let's start with our ailing offense: Currently, the Angels team OPS is .694. For OPS in 2015 MLB, average would probably be considered about .710, above average at .800, great at .900, and excellent at 1.000. Source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ops/

The current season OPS for our 9 offensive slots:

Kole Calhoun: .766

Mike Trout: .972

Albert Pujols: .803

David Murphy: .771 (including w/ CLE)

C.J. Cron: .742

David Freese: .707 (career .757)

Erick Aybar: .638 (career .695)

Johnny Giavotella (if he does ever return): .662

Chris Iannetta / Carlos Perez: .593

Surprisingly Aybar is as low as he is this year at .638, given that he has a career .695 OPS. So we are obviously lacking some offensive pop at SS, and also at 2B and C, especially if Featherston becomes the replacement until/if Johnny G ever returns. The other 7 slots leave us Freese, Aybar (average hitters, trending up toward their career average) and our 5 reliable, above-average hitters. 7 of our hitting slots are at least what I would consider "solid", and seeing as how everyone was slumping in August, all appear due for at least some uptrend in September. This offense appears "average", and if the team OPS improves to even .710 by the end of the season, we'll be seeing more run scoring the last 29 games here. Now that Scioscia has been forced to move Calhoun back to leadoff, miraculously we are getting our 6 best hitters hitting #1-6 in the order consistently. If Scioscia simply sticks with it...

Moving over to our pitching, I'm using 1.32 WHIP as MLB average (source Fangraphs) and 1.25 WHIP as "above-average". The Angels team WHIP is exactly 1.25, so all together we have had an "above average" pitching staff. In fact, all 5 of our starters (not including CJ Wilson, since he's done for the year) range even better than that, from 1.12 to 1.24. And in the bullpen, we've got 7 guys (Ramos, Smith, Alvarez, Rasmus, Gott, Salas and Street) all at or below 1.29. We have the pitching depth, and none of these 7 regular relievers would be a "dumpster fire" per se. Scioscia, just STOP putting Bedrosian and Morin into important games, please.

Bottom line: An Angels team with average defense, simply an average offense, but with above-average pitching, both from starters AND relievers, should be enough to get into the postseason. Good pitching generally beats good hitting. (Recent Toronto series notwithstanding.) That means I do expect the team OPS to trend up from .694 to about .710-.720 by the end of the season. I'm not expecting this group to suddenly become Murderer's Row, though a small, but sufficient improvement to .710 or even .720 is definitely possible. Now that Murphy, Cron and Aybar/Freese will be taking the consistent AB's in the 4-6 slots the last month of the season, I think we will see the moderate offensive improvement by year end. And I predict at least 85 wins. Hoping for a few more, which should be enough to get the Angels into October. Or maybe Minnesota and Texas will both fall off the wagon, letting us at least sneak in to the #2 wild card with 85-86 wins.

So you're saying there's a chance?!

OK, I know many will nitpick this to death or say I'm making too many assumptions. Maybe. But maybe not. Isn't that why we are diehard fans of our beloved Halos? Alright, have at it, people...

This FanPost is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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