Free Agent Shortstops

by Rev Halofan on Oct 19, 2006 9:44 PM PDT in Angels News

If you thought that Orlando Cabrera's trade value was high, just look at the weak clas of Free Agent Shortstops.
If this patheitc list doesn't set off whistles and bells to inspire a trade of O.C., nothing will.

Post-'06 Free Agent Shortstops
Royce Clayton - 36
Alex Cora - 31
Craig Counsell - 36
Ramon E. Martinez - 34
Alex Gonzalez - 29
Jose Hernandez - 37
Julio Lugo - 30
Tomas Perez - 32
Desi Relaford - 33
Jose Vizcaino - 38

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And who are the teams that need SS's?

Toronto (32-year-old scrub John McDonald, 26-year-old .219 hitter Russ Adams, and even Troy Glaus for 55 innings)
Cincy (37-year-old Royce Clayton, 35-year-old Rich Aurilia, 35-year-old Juan Castro)
Colorado (28-year-old Clint Barnes, who hit .220/.264/.335 last year ... in Colorado.)
Boston (30-year-old Alex Gonzales, career .246/.292/.392)
Houston (30-year-old Adam Everett, career .249/.301/.362)
Kaycee (29-year-old Angel Berroa, who hit .234/.259/.333 last year)
Pittsburgh (29-year-old Jack Wilson, lifetime .265/.306/.368)

Now, what desirable and/or rumored-available players do these teams have?

Toronto -- Vernon effing Wells, maybe Justin Speier
Cincy -- Adam Dunn
Colorado -- Brian "in Matt's dreams" Fuentes
Boston -- Manny "not unless they take G.A. for him" Ramirez
Houston -- Morgan Ensberg
Kaycee -- Mark "I am so totally not available" Teahen
Pitty -- Mike "also in Matt's dreams" Gonzales, Damaso Marte

I think you focus on Toronto, because A) they have the biggest need, B) Wells is the most desirable on that list, C) they have a kid (Rios) all set to play center, and corner outfielders coming out the ying-yang....

by mattwelch on Oct 19, 2006 10:44 PM PDT reply actions

great post!

OC and Figgy for Wells. They fill their need at 2! positions.

"The last time we got in a fight, we won the Series," Lackey said. "I'll be OK with that. Let's get it rolling."

by atomburn on Oct 20, 2006 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Plus

I like the idea of a trade with Toronto, but if it means the Angels have to bring up Aybar as a short-term solution, well... I'm not exactly sold on his defense, and certainly not his offense, but small sample sizes and all.

Cincy is on the wrong side of a contention cycle.

Colorado won't need a SS once former Dirtbag hotshot Troy Tulowitzki comes up. Sure, he's a year away, but they've got nothing but time. He already had a taste of the majors, hitting .240/.318/.292 in 25 AB, but he's shown excellent gap power at Tulsa, and could push for a major-league job midseason 2007.

Boston is not gonna happen. Evvvvuuuurrrr.

Houston: Morgan Ensberg is an intriguing choice, but...

.235/.396/.463 over 127 games and 387 AB in 2006.
Aubrey Huff got into the lineup ahead of him.
He spent time on the 15-day DL and is gonna be 31 next year.

Pass.

KC: Teahen, nope.
Pittsburgh: eep.

All that said, the Jays make the least objectionable trade partner in that group, if you assume the chit is Orlando Cabrera. They have the (crazy, appreciating, Canadian) dough to spend, in theory, and a place to put him. Plus, if Bengie Molina's still on the team, they can tell each other ex-Angels jokes.

Fire Mickey Hatcher. An entire generation of Angels offense depends upon it.

by scareduck on Oct 20, 2006 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions

the opposite argument

one could use the lack of FAs as a reason to keep cabrera, too.

i think we have such a bigger need in CF and the corner IF positions that moving cabby is a far lesser priority.

by yeswecan on Oct 19, 2006 11:02 PM PDT reply actions

Backlog

Cabby is the trading chip froma position we are deep at.

by Rev Halofan on Oct 19, 2006 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions

who's better than cabby at SS?

he made some ridiculous plays look easy this year. i'm not sure izzy or (name your FA SS) can do as well.

by yeswecan on Oct 20, 2006 2:12 AM PDT up reply actions

It's A Good Dilemma To Have

Cabrera, Izturis (the better one), Aybar, Wood (someday maybe not now of course) and Figgins. There ain't room for all of them, so the prudent baseball thing to do is to turn them into other players who DO fill a need. The tricky part is deciding who leaves and who stays.

As much as I've liked Figgins over time, he's really a second baseman, and there's no room at the inn for him there. The Angels need a legit CF, and that's either Wells or Willits. A lot of teams would like Wells, including the Blue Jays, so I'd offer Figgins to them with other parts and see what happens. Matter of fact, I'd keep offering Figgins around baseball to see what he'd yield. I think Izturis is a keeper, at least for another year. I'd also listen to offers for Cabrera as much as it pains me to say so. Wood apparently is ticketed for 3B someday, but as much as he strikes out, I'd actually consider trading him too, especially if it yielded someone like Alex Rodriguez.

One of the Angels' positions of strength to deal is all these middle infielders. They can't keep abusing their alleged versatility and plugging them into other positions. Some good players and citizens should be dealt. This off season will reveal whether he's called Stoneman because of the rocks in his head or what's in his shorts.

by beercub @ Halos Heaven on Oct 20, 2006 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions

we can get two big ones

OC and Figgy for Wells
Santana, Shields, Izzy for A-rod

put Wells in center, put A-Rod at short, and put Quinalin/ D-Mac at third.

long shot?

by Hutch (someone took my name) on Oct 20, 2006 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions

O.C. and Figgy...

...aren't enough to get Wells. There's got to be an arm included somewhere. Maybe one of them and Shields or both of them and Saunders would be what it'd take. It's gonna be steep.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Oct 20, 2006 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I think this just...

Puts more of a value on our other tradechips at the position:

Aybar, Izzy, OC, Figgy.

If that's the list of FA SS, that means there's a lot we can play with. Including 3 Team Deals.

I say, either Izzy or aybar should be playing SS next year.

by Obscurity on Oct 20, 2006 2:21 AM PDT reply actions

Too many shortstops!

OC is, to me, a definite possiblity for a trade. He's still a great shortstop with some offense, had a great year and is signed for what many of those aforementioned lame ducks will get this year. Value is high with him (yoda? eh, it's early...) Wood is going to be ready in '08 to take the job so why not deal Cabrera when his value is at its highest?

That being said, he's going nowhere. Scioscia and Stoneman like him and they'll continue to bat him third and he'll play good defense.

by halomatt on Oct 20, 2006 5:54 AM PDT reply actions

cabby batting 3rd

if cabby is batting 3rd in april, then the angels failed miserably in the offseason. the glaring hole is offense, and nothing says "we need bats" more than orlando cabrera batting 3rd.

by yeswecan on Oct 20, 2006 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree

OC batting 3rd in 07 = Stoneman fucked up

by Hutch (someone took my name) on Oct 20, 2006 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah boyyyzz.

No diggity doubt about that.

We are somewhat overstocked at SS and starting pitchers, and seriously deficient at CF and healthy power hitters, so Stoneman needs to make a trade for once.

Everyone else will be looking to trade too in this crappy FA market, so I think the price we have to pay could be a lot.

by elricsi on Oct 20, 2006 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

We are NOT stocked with starters

Five starters and an injured fat man do not make for overstock. That's one bone chip away from Dustin Moseley in the rotation. Do you really want to see Jeff Weaver back? Aaron Sele? Pat Rapp?

by mattwelch on Oct 20, 2006 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Ismael Valdez, Kent Bottenfield

Ramon Ortiz, the list can go on, but yeah, the pitching has been great for us because it has been great ACROSS THE BOARD and any place there can have a problem that leaves us with a gaping hole...

by Rev Halofan on Oct 20, 2006 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions

SP

What I meant to say is we are RELATIVELY stocked with starters. We have 6 guys who may work out, which is really exactly how many you want.

The thing is we may be the only team like that, everyone else is 2 or 3. So compared to them we are stocked.

If we land a monster position player, I think we can deal with mixing and matching the 5th guy.

by elricsi on Oct 20, 2006 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Right

Dustin Moseley's imitation of a major league pitcher isn't a good one.

Fire Mickey Hatcher. An entire generation of Angels offense depends upon it.

by scareduck on Oct 20, 2006 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Having a hole in your rotation

Hurts you every 5th day. Having a crappy lineup hurts you every day.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Oct 20, 2006 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

wow

That actually might be the wisest saying I have read in a long time. Seriously.

by Rev Halofan on Oct 20, 2006 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

apples & oranges

each individual starter has a bigger impact on the game than an individual hitter. for example, an individual hitter having a terrible offensive game won't lose the game for the team. a terrible starting pitcher will almost untoubtably lose the game.

by yeswecan on Oct 20, 2006 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

One you eat the skin

the other you peel the skin

youcan compare them - i just did.

by Rev Halofan on Oct 20, 2006 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions

one starter does not equal one position player

ask the yankees.

by yeswecan on Oct 20, 2006 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions

It's not apples and oranges

Especially in the postseason where the 5th starter is in the bullpen (or inactive) while the bat can impact every game every 2-3 innings.

My point isn't that a solid rotation from 1-5 isn't highly desirable, it is. However, one cannot disregard the impact of lack of run support on all 5. The pitch counts go up due to the lack of margin for error, and every pitch is potentially make or break causing the pitcher to exhaust sooner and taxing the bullpen at the same time.

Having a good offense allows starters to throw at 80/90% on days with good support. This has a huge affect over the course of a long season. As does the opposite. See John Lackey's August for reference.

Besides, I'm not saying we have to throw out a chump like Bootcheck or Moseley (or Rapp/Sele). There are plenty of average quality arms available that can win 12-14 games with a good offense and a solid bullpen behind them.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Oct 20, 2006 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions

A starting pitcher

faces a batter about 20 times every five days.

A batter faces a pitcher about 20 times every 5 days.

Sounds about even to me.

john RIP samo

by angels4adam on Oct 20, 2006 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Uh, not quite

Unless the pitcher is going 6 2/3 innings of perfect baseball every start. It's more like 27-30.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Oct 20, 2006 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions

The difference is more than I thought.

Ervin Santana started 33 games in 2006. In a 162-game season, he started every 4.9th game.
He faced a batter (IPx3+H+BB) 863 times, which works out to be 26.1 batters faced every 4.9th game, which is 26.2 batters faced every 5th game.

Vladimir Guerrero played in 156 games in 2006. In a 162-game season, he played in 96.2% of the games.
He faced a pitcher (AB+BB+HBP) 665 times, which works out to be 690.6 pitchers faced if he played a 162 game season, which is 4.3 per game and 21.5 pitchers faced every 5 games.

Obviously, I just picked Ervin because he was closest to starting every 5th game, and I picked Vlad, because he was closest to playing every game. The results would vary between players.

If you're interested, the difference of 4.7 chances every 5th game works out to be 152.3.
Therefore, a pitcher has approximately 152.3 more chances to succeed/suck in a season than a batter.

So yes, darkangel, you are right. Pitching is more important than hitting by an adequate margin.

john RIP samo

by angels4adam on Oct 20, 2006 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Wll you do my taxes?

by Rev Halofan on Oct 20, 2006 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure. Free of charge for the Rev.

john RIP samo

by angels4adam on Oct 21, 2006 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions

thank you

plus, there's the anecdotal evidence (baseball proverb?) that good pitching beats good hitting.

by yeswecan on Oct 21, 2006 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions

The season Changed when....

... we replaced Weavers. Teams with 5 good starters always win. Furthermore, they can survive the ups and downs of breaking in rookies in their lineup. Every other team in the bigs would like our situation, so yeah, let's go ahead and fuck that up.

by mattwelch on Oct 21, 2006 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions

P & H

Yes you are correct that a full season SP will have more BFP/PA than a position player. Also, having an awful pitcher go does kill you.

BUT, the evidence seems to be that both the hitter and pitcher strongly affect BB, SO and HR; but hits on balls in play are pretty much only affected by the hitter, defense and luck. So that is why when you work through all the math (or common sense), the very best position players are more valuable (and higher paid) than the best pitchers.

by elricsi on Oct 21, 2006 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I'll buy that.

john RIP samo

by angels4adam on Oct 21, 2006 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Panther!

Bring back Al Wisk!!!

by Sixtyminuteman on Oct 20, 2006 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions

OC

for Mark Teahen.

by higdog on Oct 20, 2006 11:38 AM PDT reply actions

Trades with KC

I read where KC relief pitcher Jimmy Gobles is eligible for arbitration this off season. He would be a nice addition to our bullpen. He throws lefty, has a high strikeout to BB ratio, and of all things has great success against RHB's.

by higdog on Oct 20, 2006 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

I saw that.

I think Gobble might be a good piece to trade for. don't we have some guys in the AFL who aren't on the 40 man? If (IF) Stoneman has an opportunity, it might be a good idea to send some of these guys over for Gobble. Perhaps Wilhite, Brown, and Bootcheck? Less? More? Dunno, but it's something to look at.

Also, we have six starters, but in an emergency Gregg and Carrasco can start too. Don't forget Adenhart. He's probably going to start at AA where he left off, but he's also close enough that he can start a game in the majors if he's needed.

by halomatt on Oct 20, 2006 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Adenhart

Ended his season in High A ball (Rancho) not AA. My guess is that's where he'll start 2007 with a quick promotion if he dominates. He's still a pup.

DarkAngel hath spoken....

by darkangel01 on Oct 20, 2006 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions

OC and cash

for Gobbles.

by higdog on Oct 20, 2006 4:57 PM PDT reply actions

Vernon

Maybe the Blue Jays will trade Wells like the Rangers traded Soriano. Soriano had a year left under team control, kinda like Wells only has one year left on his contract with the Jays. I forget exactly what the Rangers got for Soriano but I think it was mostly Brad Wilkerson and Termel Sledge, not exaclty top players. This all hinges on whether the Blue Jays think they have a chance of resigning Wells after 2007. If they don't think it will happen then they'll get what value they can before he leaves via free agency. So maybe OC, Figgy, and Saunders can do the trick.

by bklmu on Oct 20, 2006 6:03 PM PDT reply actions

Texas Rangers traded Alfonso Soriano

to the Washington Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and Armando Galarraga.

I'd say Wilkerson (at the point of the trade) was about the equivelent of what Figgins is right now. Sledge was similar to D-Mac and Galarraga was similar to Kyle Edens.

So...If we could get Vernon Wells for Chone Figgins, Dallas McPherson and Kyle Edens would you do it?

john RIP samo

by angels4adam on Oct 20, 2006 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions