Our Magic #: 38

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 1:03 AM PDT in Angels News

On June 30, the Angels were 7 games behind Oakland, having lost 3 in a row. On July 28, the Angels were in sole possession of first place.

The Angels and Athletics have more games to play between now and October 21 than we did between June 30 and July 28 (remember, there was the four-game All Star break). Both teams have run hot/cold streaky this entire season.

Under Mike Scioscia, the Angels have generally been a great September team.

Over the past two Septembers, the A's sure as fuck were not.

It is August 30 and the Angels are 7 and a half back of the A's, having just lost three in a row.

While they pop the Labor Day pennant champagne early in North Fremont, here in L.A. of A, we know to just fasten our seatbelts and prepare to sneer as we inevitably meet up with that green jalopy we are destined to surpass on the Division Highway.

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Can I get a witness?!

I can't wait for September to come. This last week of August is like the day before christmas.

The last world series champion in California has "Anaheim" written next to their name.

by Anaheim of Anaheim on Aug 30, 2006 1:25 AM PDT reply actions

Amen.

With all of the errors and the many long flys WTY gave up last night, combined with the truly scary injury to Soriano (thank God he's going to be alright), I hope this team is expelling their last bits of bad karma.

Here's hoping that a new month brings a rejuvenated team and an Athletics club that finds itself running out of gas!

Every team wins fifty, and every team loses fifty--it's what you do with the rest that counts.

by cardinalwraith on Aug 30, 2006 1:28 AM PDT up reply actions

It ain't over...

...'till the lead over a rival is greater than the number of games remaining. It's a ballsy thing to call a season with this many games left.

That said, the Angels went 3-3 versus the Red Sox and even if they don't make the playoffs, neither will Boston. Basically, my requirements for the season have been met, so division title or not, I'm happy.

I enjoy watching the game...results (aside from BOS games) aren't actually that important to me.

Let's have some fun and make a wicked drive to October 1st.

by Carl Johnson on Aug 30, 2006 1:43 AM PDT reply actions

Logic Prevails

Just how do you guys here see the Angels making their run to catch the A's. Just running this favorable simulation it does not see like they can get enough wins to catch them. Unless they catch on fire and go crazy with lots of sweeps. Tell me if you find any way that they can get the wins they need:

Angels Games (NEUTRAL-FAVORABLE SIMULATION)

team games results
SEA 1gm 1-0
DET 3gm 1-2
BAL 3gm 2-1
TOR 3gm 2-1
CWS 3gm 2-1
TEX 4gm 3-1
KC 2gm 2-0
OAK 3gm 2-1
TEX 3gm 2-1
OAK 4gm 2-2

Final result: 19-10

Oakland Games (NEUTRAL-UNFAVORABLE SIMULATION)

team games results

BOS 1GM 0-1
BAL 3GM 2-1
TEX 3GM 2-1
TB 3GM 2-1
MIN 3GM 1-2
CWS 3GM 1-2
CLE 4GM 2-2
LAA 3GM 1-2
SEA 3GM 2-1 (gotta figure 2/3 after 15 str8)
LAA 4GM 2-2

Final result: 15-15

FINAL STANDINGS

OAKLAND 91-71
ANAHEIM 88-74

I am open to other thoughts, but barring a huge collapse by the A's or the Angels playing even better than this seems to leave the Angels in a very tough spot.

by jasonlbe @ Halos Heaven on Aug 30, 2006 5:22 AM PDT reply actions

You are not factoring in

those 6 consecutive games on concrete will put half the fragile Athletics on the diabled list...

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions

nor are you factoring in

SHEER HOPE!! FAITH!! BELIEF!! INTANGIBLES!!

first read this and thought our resident doomsayer wrote it.

0/ GOOOOOOO ANGELS!!

Be nice to Nurses... we keep doctors from accidentally killing you!

by ladybug on Aug 30, 2006 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

our resident doomsayer

doomed his own ass out of existence...

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Huh?

Don't tell me you booted scareduck...

by jjackflash on Aug 30, 2006 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't see 6-4-2

on the Halosphere links here anymore...

by Higz on Aug 30, 2006 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Reports of my doomedness

have been greatly exaggerated. I think.

I'm simply not bothering to show up around here.

Fire Mickey Hatcher. An entire generation of Angels offense depends upon it.

by scareduck on Aug 30, 2006 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions

was it something we said???!!?!?

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions

What the fuck?

Hey, when the Rev re-did the links, he dropped from at or near the top. Bastard!

by LA Seitz on Aug 30, 2006 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions

nevermind

it's not numbers anymore, it's written out.

by Higz on Aug 30, 2006 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

A's Need a 7 Game Losing Streak

... right now! During which the Angels sport a 4-3 record to get within 3 1/2 games. If Oakland begins their 6 game dome roadtrip to Tampa Bay and Minnesota with a 6 game or greater lead it will be very easy for them to rest their injury-susceptible players. I remember the turf-curse injury Troy Glaus suffered in Minnesota's Hump Dome. No doubt the A's can recall turf injuries in the past too.

I have sent in my check for Angel post-season tickets. With the Halos falling 7 1/2 games back there is a 90% probability that will go towards our 2007 Angel season seats.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel, the Angels must be only 4 games out going into the last 4 games of the season at home versus Oakland. That scenario would require the Angels to win 5 straight over the A's (including a one game play-off). The best I foresee the Angels doing in those last 4 games with Oakland are winning 3. A 7 game Oakland losing streak for Oakland beginning today would do wonders for the Angels.
The Halos are alive until the magic number is zero. It is never over until it is over.

by Yetijuice on Aug 30, 2006 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions

6 games

3 in TB, 3 in MIN, all on concrete

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions

After which they will go on a 17 game

losing streak

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions

those field are concrete???

with artificial turf??? i didn't know they put it on concrete....no wonder there's so many injuries...

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually

I think this "simulation" looks pretty spot on, sad to say.

For the Angels to catch the Ass, two things would need to be different in the above results.

First, the Angels need to take 5/7 from Oakland (2-1, 3-1). And Seattle takes 2/3 from the A's, which (given the 15 straight losses) actually seems likely, if you figure that the streak is an anomaly due for correction. Oakland is not so much better than Seattle that one would expect them to win 15 straight over the M's.

With everything else above being the same, that puts both teams at 89-73, with a one-game playoff.

by jjackflash on Aug 30, 2006 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Well all of a sudden

Seattle is hot again... you never know

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions

"Logic prevails" ???

All the great comebacks and chokes in baseball history had NOTHING to do with logic. That's the beauty of sports.

When the Angels were up by 12.5 games in 1995, "logically" they should have won.

Did the Phillies "logically" lose ten in a row to end the 1964 season?

Did the Houston Oilers "logically" blow a 38-3 halftime lead? Did the TrailBlazers "logically" blow a 20 point fourth quarter lead to the Lakers? Cal-Stanford? I could go on and on.

Listen, the odds are definitely in the A's favor - no one is disputing that. But the fun of sports (in general) is to BE THERE when the UNUSUAL happens, because it CAN! Those that lose hope are the ones who never experience the joy of the great comeback...

by johnnyangel101 on Sep 1, 2006 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

keep hoping them

cause 8.5 back 9 in the loss with 28 left looks bleak.

by jasonlbe @ Halos Heaven on Sep 2, 2006 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Excellent analysis

Basically, we have to run off about 10 in a row similar to the July run to have a shot.

by SocalAngelFaninOC on Aug 30, 2006 7:27 AM PDT reply actions

It is what it is.

I love my Halos like no other, and it's not over until it's over, but it simply isn't looking real good right now.

We seem to be hinging everything on Oakland choking severely. That isn't particularly what i'd prefer to hang my hat on.

The A's are getting all the breaks. We play Boston last week, and Boston plays very well. The A's play Boston this week, and Ortiz and Ramirez aren't playing.

In the above analysis he has Oakland losing tonight to Boston. Really?

Hopefully we are mathematically still in it when we start playing those games against the A's, at least then we can go in with a chance, any chance. The question is, are we really good enough to play the kind of ball needed to take advantage if the A's do indeed slow down?

Are we? I'd like to think so, and then I watch us go into Seattle of all places, and play like we have in two absolute must win games.

Mmmm.

The biggest bummer in all this is that the AL seems ripe for the taking this year. I just don't see any dominant club out there. If you get into the post season you have to like your chances, especially when you can throw Lackey, Weaver, and Santana in a series. But it's a long way to the top, if you wanna rock and roll, and right now we're going in the wrong direction.

One thing is for sure: I also can't wait for September 1, so we can quit hypothesizing about all this choking and bs, and see what really happens...

by goodvibe61 on Aug 30, 2006 9:23 AM PDT reply actions

sure

<<The question is, are we really good enough to play the kind of ball needed to take advantage if the A's do indeed slow down?>>

They have shown they are, look at July. The better question would be whether or not they can play to their potential.

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions

IT is very simple

WIN BALLGAMES
PLAY GOOD D
WIN BALLGAMES
HIT IN THE CLUTCH
WIN BALLGAMES
GOOD PITCHING
WIN BALLGAMES
PLAY LIKE A TEAM

The only thing we need to do is take one game at a time and win em all. We are still in control of our own destiny!

If you want it take it!

Going on a winning streak, a real long one!

Bad Stoneman, Bad Stoneman...whatcha gonna do?

by P237 on Aug 30, 2006 9:28 AM PDT reply actions

Actually

we are a half game back from controling our own destiny

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions

right on!!!!! we have done

it before and we can do it again!!!!!!

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks

for deleting my comment. nice to see that while friendly prodding is welcome at AN, fuhrer Rev tolerates none of that here. I said nothing offensive.

by Mr Sabermetric Spock on Aug 30, 2006 9:49 AM PDT reply actions

you just did....

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions

something to think about

Since the All-Star break, the Angels and A's have both been playing good baseball, well over .500

Here's something interesting to look at:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/sparklines/custom.php?view=&teamAbbrLimit%5B%5D=LAA&a mp;teamAbbrLimit%5B%5D=OAK&minDate=2006-07-13&maxDate=2006-08-29&sparklineHeight=12& barWidth=1&barSpacing=1&diffType=runDiff&runDiff=1&diffColor=red&Submit=Submit

LAA (26-19)
OAK (31-13)

The chances of either team deviating from that kind of winning percentage by more than a few games is pretty slim at this point.

by Mr Sabermetric Spock on Aug 30, 2006 9:58 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks for making the Rev's point

"The chances of either team deviating from that kind of winning percentage by more than a few games is pretty slim at this point."

A. Gather up some numbers.
B. Turn around and make a completely subjective, albeit still vague and passive, comment based on no actual scientific evidence.

"I have not yet begun to fight." ~ John Paul Jones

by Stirrups on Aug 30, 2006 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions

But

will I meet my soulmate before or after the September 7 eclipse?

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions

my magic 8 ball says...

ask again later.

these are so unreliable. I'm better off with tea leaves and an abacus, i think.

by Mr Sabermetric Spock on Aug 30, 2006 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions

well, meantime

i have my A's dolls and pins at the ready......

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions

ok

Here are the two teams' winning percentages since the ASB, and how many games they have left.

OAK .705 30
LAA .578 29

Assuming that they were tied in the standings, for discussion purposes, Oakland would be expected to win somewhere in the general neighborhood of 7/10 games, or about a 21-9 record. I'll assume that they won't have that good a record, for argument's sake, and throw in a 5 game losing streak. They'd finish the season at a 16-14 pace.

The Angels, by the same rationale, would be expected to go about 18-11. I'll go ahead and give them 3 more wins, due to grit and hustle and Chone Figgins' intangibles. That's 21-8.

So that's a difference of 5.5 games.

The Angels trail the A's by 7.5, though.

Do you see where I'm coming from when I say that it seems pretty unreasonable to say that the Angels are really still in it? Even with a cold streak by the A's and a hot streak by the Angels, reversing what has actually been happening, they are 2 games back.

It's not outside the realm of possibility, but it is outside the realm of plausibility.

by Mr Sabermetric Spock on Aug 30, 2006 10:20 AM PDT reply actions

Vague prediction

Do you or do you not read your daily horoscope and does it or does it never come true?

12 game span Angels go 10-2, A's go 3-9, we are right on their ass with 7 head-to-head games ... it could happen ... only difference here is that you pretend your numbers give you the inside track and they are just as good as my numbes.

When you are ready to bet the rent on a particular SPECIFICoutcome, let me know.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions

I'll take that bet.

A's will win the West this year. That's as specific as you need to know. Are YOU willing to take the other side of that bet? I'm thinking even Angel fans will not.

~ visiting A's fan

by truelements on Aug 31, 2006 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions

Just curious...

So when you look at the way things historically happen, do you believe this will tell you something about what is likely in the future?

Say, for example, the A's played poorly in September the last couple of years. Will they play poorly this September?

Or, the fact that teams don't close this type of gap at this point in the season. Does, this mean that there is a likelihood of it happening now?

When do you get to say, "I believe history tends to repeat in this case but not in this case?"

Just food for thought.

by whyareyou on Aug 30, 2006 10:38 AM PDT reply actions

don't mean shit

Unless you can tell me that the moon in scorpio tonight benefits one team or the other, every game here is an independent event. Anything can happen and it usually does.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

So then.....

How do you know the A's will play poorly in September?

by whyareyou on Aug 30, 2006 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions

I feel it

Different than knowing

Like Obi Wan said:
TRUST YOUR FEELINGS.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't trust my feelings

I trust the Rev's

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

a simple, scientific answer for you

the A's lick.

that's all the science i need. baseball's a weird game, and anything can happen. all the science in the world couldn't predict the angels' 95 meltdown, so theoretically anything can happen. i'm hoping the A's melt down, because i cannot wait to see those smug "we've already won" prognosticators jumping out of buildings on AN.

by yeswecan on Aug 30, 2006 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

What none of you have brought up...

The six head-to-head games left.

Simply the Angels need to sweep or go 5-1. That's either six whole games in the standings or four - either way it makes the AL West a race.

Factor in an A's cold streak and and Angels hot streak and anything is possible.

As an A's fan, I'm not saying it's over...but I am booking playoff tickets!

Season series so far is 6-6 I believe.

by Monkey Face on Aug 30, 2006 10:42 AM PDT reply actions

Seven head to head

Fri/Sat/Sun there

Thu/Fri/Sat/Sun here

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Here's the thing

Angels fans: In all likelihood, it probably won't happen. At least not until the Angels learn to field a ground ball cleanly.

BUT

A's fans: It could happen. Don't get comfortable.

That's the beauty of this here game - probability and all that says that it won't happen, that a team playing .578 ball won't all of a sudden start playing .850 ball and go on and win the division.

But, I'm a Mariners fan, and I went to (and lost my voice at) so many games in September 1995 (including the one-game playoff) that, even though I'm more of a sabermetric guy than not, I can't sit here right now and tell the Angels that it's over when there's still a month's worth of games to play.

Nice Guys Finish Third - hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb @ Halos Heaven on Aug 30, 2006 10:52 AM PDT reply actions

I remember watching that playoff game at work

worse day of my life. I was the 2nd person to buy tickets at the stadium (after wristbands were handed out). I had great friggin' seats!

Thanks pdb, for ruining everything!

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

it gives me hope

it has happened before and team green diarrhea almost assures that it will happen again.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

great tix for our first playoff series in 9 years

that is

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions

if they lose tonight...

and the A's win, i'm thinking it's pretty much over.

8.5 games is just too much to make up, even with a typical A's september collapse.

SPORTS UNFILTERED

by pedro guerrero on Aug 30, 2006 10:54 AM PDT reply actions

COLLAPSE

The choke is typical of them

this season will be the collapse!

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

implosion?

controlled demolition?

SPORTS UNFILTERED

by pedro guerrero on Aug 30, 2006 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions

i like your optimism, rev

this is a rare display of unabashed, unequivocal positivity in the face of an increasingly daunting task for the angels.

i like it. perhaps it's time bust out the banners:

"YES WE CAN"

by yeswecan on Aug 30, 2006 11:12 AM PDT reply actions

And a rally panther

by MistaRaggy @ Halos Heaven on Aug 30, 2006 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Mountain Lion?

That looks like a mountain lion...

Having done some research (instead of, you know, the work I should be doing), it looks like a panther is really a type of cougar. But aren't "mountain lions" also cougars? So, is a mountain lion a panther?

I'm so confused.

PANTHER!

by jjackflash on Aug 30, 2006 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

all of the above

http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/netdict?panther

by yeswecan on Aug 30, 2006 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions

hey!

what's with the link to a photo of Ichiro in a turtleneck sweater?

by Higz on Aug 30, 2006 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I can't wait for HH calendar of Panthers...

Are fucking kidding me?

There is only one true panther...

He goes by the name Darby...

At least photoshop a picture of Darby with a Halos Hat and not some cheap ass cougar in Tustin.

"Fuck the bondsman. I will do the time." -Madame Rev

by cupie on Aug 30, 2006 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Cougars = Lame

Panthers = Panther

by Higz on Aug 30, 2006 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions

someone photoshop a hat on this:

The baddest of all Panthers:

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions

You may want to call

these cats black panthers, but there's really no such animal. "Panther" is a generic work used to describe many large cats, ...

It ain't over 'til it's over...Yogi Berra

by angelsrallymom on Aug 30, 2006 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure there is! Lookee here...

http://fwie.fw.vt.edu/WWW/esis/lists/e054001.htm

Panther is an actual species.

"I have not yet begun to fight." ~ John Paul Jones

by Stirrups on Aug 30, 2006 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions

That's why I don't root for the angles

I root for the Angels!

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 11:19 AM PDT reply actions

That was in reply to a deleted post

haha

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions

You can't have stats both ways, Rev

First, you rely on stats to say its possible for the Aggies to win this thing -- look at July, look at previous Septembers. Then you argue that the low FB% of your wet dream rookie is BS. Sorry, but stats is stats, and history is history. Which means:

-- you don't think us A's fans are quaking at the thought of a September slump? The law of averages sez to me it'll get closer, but I don't think the Aggies have it in them this year.
-- most high FB% pitchers do not become Pedros and Rogers, or even Shreks. Maybe your boy is the exception, or maybe he's starting out lucky. One year is only one year.
-- trends are real. And one real trend is that most teams up by 5 or more games on Sept 1 win their divisions. Not always, but most of the time. People here have shown why that is always likely -- you need two rare things to happen simultaneously -- one team to tank and the other to streak. Can happen, not likely, greatly to be feared in green and gold land
-- If you're going to remember past glories and typical September collapses, just remember the Aggies in 1995
-- And that the A's, not the Aggies, are the second most successful franchise in AL history -- with 4 world championships, 6 pennants and 14 playoffs appearances since they moved to Oakland , while the Aggies are 1 World championship, 1 pennant and six playoff appearances in a longer time span. And better in the last 6 years, ten years, whatever.

Here's why I'm optimistic. What if my star pitcher gets hurt? Oh, he already is. What about my star shortstop? Ditto. ROY closer? Ditto.

Then again, 0-6 against the Aggies down the stretch might do it, so keep hoping!

by ghost of charley O on Aug 30, 2006 11:41 AM PDT reply actions

hey number-humper

what's "FB%"? if it means "Fucking Bullshit Percentage", then i understand why you're humping it so feverishly.

you have every reason to be optimistic, but even the most lustful of you humpers should hold your tongue until the fat lady sings.

oh, by the way, i think the Aggies are a football team. you might want to check those stat books again, just in case your numbers are wrong. i'll buy you the kleenex.

by yeswecan on Aug 30, 2006 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

What does FB% mean???

Ask and read the Rev, you heathen.

The Fat Lady has booked the week of September 21 in Oakland. Doesn't expect to need to visit The Los Aggies of Disneyland until next century again.

by ghost of charley O on Aug 30, 2006 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I would refrain...

from calling Bobby Crosby a "star."

by Kelly on Aug 30, 2006 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

And the Great Pumpkin will rise out of...

the pumpkin patch and give toys to all the boys and girls who had the faith to wait for him....

I think it's about time for Lucy to come and put Linus Rev to bed.

by Calvin @ Halos Heaven on Aug 30, 2006 12:00 PM PDT reply actions

Heres something we could use for the stretch

Anything that helps

Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, eats ketchup on a hot dog. ~Dirty Harry

by eyespy on Aug 30, 2006 12:12 PM PDT reply actions

I doubt we'll be gaining any ground tongiht

As are up 4-1 in the 5th

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 30, 2006 1:52 PM PDT reply actions

awesome

your brilliance really shines!

by yeswecan on Aug 30, 2006 5:12 PM PDT reply actions

Well, that's a relief...

The A's did win again today. However, it was their final August contest. Their next game is in September, so this choke stuff can finally click into play...

by goodvibe61 on Aug 30, 2006 6:13 PM PDT reply actions

A;s 8 Red Sux 2 -- Does that make the number 39?

by ghost of charley O on Aug 30, 2006 7:52 PM PDT reply actions

Don't count on it

Other than '04 and '05 the A's have had very good Septembers. How soon Angel fans forget that the A's outplayed the Angels in '02 for the AL West Crown.

BTW

Angels Games (NEUTRAL-FAVORABLE SIMULATION)

team games results
SEA 1gm 1-0
DET 3gm 1-2
BAL 3gm 2-1
TOR 3gm 2-1
CWS 3gm 2-1
TEX 4gm 3-1
KC 2gm 2-0
OAK 3gm 2-1
TEX 3gm 2-1
OAK 4gm 2-2

Final result: 19-10

Oakland Games (NEUTRAL-UNFAVORABLE SIMULATION)

team games results

BOS 1GM 1-0
BAL 3GM 2-1
TEX 3GM 2-1
TB 3GM 2-1
MIN 3GM 1-2
CWS 3GM 1-2
CLE 4GM 2-2
LAA 3GM 1-2
SEA 3GM 2-1 (gotta figure 2/3 after 15 str8)
LAA 4GM 2-2

Final result: 16-14

FINAL STANDINGS

OAKLAND 92-70
ANAHEIM 88-74

by jasonlbe @ Halos Heaven on Aug 30, 2006 11:06 PM PDT reply actions

How many current A's

were on those non-choke squads?

Answer: not many.

Summary

No correlation.

P.S. - we were the wildcard, yeah, and the World Champions. Never gonna get props from you for that so expect none from us.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 30, 2006 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions

September & 2002

Re: 2002:

A) Do it a 2nd time in your 45 year-old franchise's history and we'll consider some props. 1989 might seem immensely far back to a team that's only had fans the last 4 years, but one set of rings hardly turns you into the Yankees.

B) Try to do it without a guy who shouldn't have been on the roster winning 5 games in the postseason for you. Exploiting loopholes may be a way to get ahead down in SoCal, but it gets you no respect from up here.

Now, comparing the A's of this year to 2000-03 isn't valid, but lets compare them to themselves. Each pair of numbers represents the player's total career OPS and the player's career OPS in September. : indicates player who has less than two full years of play, (including two Septembers) indicating a small sample size.)

Jason Kendall: .782/.822 +40
Nick Swisher: .800/.751 -49
Mark Ellis: .740/.821 +81
Marco Scutaro: .693/.666 -27
Eric Chavez: .838/.800 -38
Frank Thomas: .991/.975 -14
Milton Bradley: .780/.702 -78
Mark Kotsay: .760/.853 +93
Jay Payton: .770/.752 -18
Bobby Kielty: .768/.871 +103

So, averaged out, a positive net of .0085 vs their careers. Basically no difference, but while all of this data is of suspect applicability, Swisher's is even more so, given this is just his 2nd September in the big leagues.

Maybe ERA helps your case?

Barry Zito: 3.51/3.30 -.21
Dan Haren: 4.01/3.16 -.85
Joe Blanton*: 3.98/3.41 -.57
Esteban Loaiza: 4.61/4.73 +.08
Kirk Saarloos: 4.72/5.15 +.43

Hrm. Not so much.

by Nate on Aug 31, 2006 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Hello bitterness

Beane wouldn't exploit the "Frankie" loophole? HA - puh-leazzzze. Stoneman does it and you grumble, if Billy did it, it would earn him more GENIUS plaudits.

BUT IF YOU WANT TO TALK LOOPHOLES...

How about that loophole that didn't allow for steroid testing in 1989 - there goes your ring

YOUR SEPT NUMBERS:
the numbers say your aching jocks aren't supermen in September, historically, individually, and a hot Angels team could catch them as easily as they were caught and surpassed just two months ago.

If history repeats, it repeats sooner rather than later!

And the whole theory about there only being Angels fans for the past four years - look at the miserable attendance at the colisseum for any year since 1992 and just drop it.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 31, 2006 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions

Hello clarity

Beane wouldn't exploit the "Frankie" loophole? HA - puh-leazzzze. Stoneman does it and you grumble, if Billy did it, it would earn him more GENIUS plaudits.

Bring a player up from the minors to replace an eligible player? Sure. Try to claim Steve Green, who didn't throw a single pitch in the 2002 season as "eligible"? Even used car salesmen have their limits. It was the laxity of the Commissioner's Office that allowed it, but it still isn't worthy of props.

BUT IF YOU WANT TO TALK LOOPHOLES...

How about that loophole that didn't allow for steroid testing in 1989 - there goes your ring

It wasn't a 'loophole.' Steroids weren't banned by Major League Baseball.

And even if you want to eliminate 1989, well, we've got 8 more.

the numbers say your aching jocks aren't supermen in September, historically, individually, and a hot Angels team could catch them as easily as they were caught and surpassed just two months ago.

Wow. That's actually what you get out of that data? I'm pretty sure that much torture is considered a human rights violation. It says their hitting is collectively in line with their career averages, and that their pitching is significantly better. Are you under the impression that Angel hitters ARE supermen in September?

And the whole theory about there only being Angels fans for the past four years - look at the miserable attendance at the colisseum for any year since 1992 and just drop it.

Why would I drop the argument when you're proving my point? Following the successful teams of 88-92, attendance drops to between 1-1.5 million. Then it goes back up above 2 million at the century mark when the team gets better. Angels attendance hovers at 1.5-2 million, edging upward when the team is good, until 2003, when it vaults over 3 million.

In short, exactly what I said. Half your fandom didn't exist before 2002. If your point is that your attendance is HIGHER than Oakland's...look, it's obvious math isn't your strong suit, but I really hope I don't have to explain how many more people live in the LA area than in the Bay Area...do I?

by Nate on Aug 31, 2006 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Wow you are a reallly good arguer

You have convinced me that the Angels read the fine print well, the A's played good baseball with steroids, before free agency and a few times back before blacks were allowed to play against them, and that Bay Area fans prefer the Giants.

by Rev Halofan on Aug 31, 2006 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

This is why I would

drink Rev's Kool-Aid

I met Cedric Bixler-Zavala. He's a jerk. Why am I not surprised?

by thrill000 on Aug 31, 2006 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

No Loophole

Dude, get a clue.

There was no "loophole" to exploit. It's perfectly well-known to every GM around the league that anybody in the organization as of 08/31 is eligible for the postseason roster.

It's not a loophole. It's a rule. Stoneman knew the rule. Presumably, all 29 other GMs around the league knew the rule too, and would have done exactly the same thing.

It's disingenous to say that Frankie "shouldn't" have been on the postseason roster when, in fact, he was perfectly entitled to be. And they haven't bothered to change the rules, either, so the exact same thing could happen this year, too.

Talk about ignorant bitterness...

by jjackflash on Sep 1, 2006 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions

wait wait wait

These people have elevated the A's to religion, therefore Billy Beane would not do something outside of a strict moral code of conduct - and what is great is we will never know what he would have done, therefore he reigns as a divine being to these misguided sorts...

by Rev Halofan on Sep 1, 2006 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions