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Trevor Reckling: Best Angels Prospect Performance #5

5) Trevor Reckling, 20 - LH SP, High A, AA

9 wins, 9 losses. 154.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 122 SO/78 BB. +25 runs saved

The most heartening commentary I heard about the Angels' farm system all year was Eddie Bane repeating, "Reckling has the stuff to get major league hitters out right now." Sure it's his job to plug his players, but that doesn't mean he didn't believe it. Reckling debuted in AA while still a teenager, making him the youngest player in the Texas League for much of May and June. He looked the part: clearly raw, he struggled with his control to the point of walking 13% of the batters he faced while racking up high pitch counts; but the quality of his stuff would secure the timely punch-out or double play, allowing him to escape jams time and again. His K and groundball rates slipped slightly after his promotion, but given the growing gap between his age and competition's, I'm not worried. He's got a reputation for being an athletic, smart player, so most commentators expect his control to improve as he gains more consistency with his quick, whip-like delivery. Still, we're going to have to keep watching the walk rate, because that appears to be the last hurtle he must clear before claiming a middle-of-the-rotation job in the MLB. 

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

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Trevor Bell: Best Angels Prospect Performance #6

What does the future hold for Trevor Bell?

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

What does the future hold for Trevor Bell?

6) Trevor Bell, 22 - RH SP, AA, AAA, Majors

7 wins, 7 losses. 140 IP, 2.70 ERA, 89 SO/35 BB. +23 runs saved

Bell had a fantastic 2009, resurrecting his prospect status by plowing through two minor league levels and making his MLB debut in August. We all saw him take his knocks with the big league club, of course, but that does not diminish the fact that the 22-year-old was stellar in AA and AAA. Now, the question is, what do we expect from him going forward? Bell's component ratios are eerily similar to Anthony Ortega's last year, Tommy Mendoza's this year, and what we would have expected from Sean O'Sullivan had he spent more time in the minors: a pedestrian K/IP rate, a low BB rate, moderate groundball tendencies, and the ability to consistently go 6+ innings per start. That's the definition of a back-of-the-rotation starter in the MLB, and a major storyline for the Halos in upcoming seasons is which one of those guys is going to claim that role. If I had to guess, I'd say Bell spends a few years bouncing between Salt Lake and Anaheim as a spot starter before settling in as quality reliever with the big league club. He's seen success in that role before, and it might allow his solid fastball/curve combo to play up that much more. 

I'll continue posting the top performances through next week.  Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

19 comments  |  0 recs |

Peter Bourjos: Angels Best Prospect Performance #7

7) Peter Bourjos, 22 - CF, AA

.281/.354/.423 with 6 HR and 32 SB's. +7 bat, +15 glove

Like last year, Bourjos' bat tailed off in the second half. Turns out, it was injury related: he underwent surgery last month to clean up his wrist, which had been bothering him since June. Once healthy and in Salt Lake, it would not surprise me at all to see him return to his first half, ~.800+ OPS ways. Given Bourjos' power potential and the PCL's generous hitting environment, we may see some more homeruns as well.   Looking further out, I think it's likely his early career mirrors Erick Aybar's, where he spends a good chunk of time as an under-appreciated backup on the mlb club, quietly contributing outstanding defense and speed, while steadily improving with the bat to the point where he gets leadoff consideration.  

I'll continue posting the top performances through next week.  Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

15 comments  |  0 recs |

Robert Mosebach: Angels Best Prospect Performance #8

8) Robert Mosebach, 24 - RH RP, AA and AAA

4 wins, 2 losses. 66.2 IP, 1.49 ERA, 47 K/27 BB. +24 runs saved

Who knew Mosebach's first season in the 'pen was that good? He split time between two minor league levels and the major league club, obscuring the sum value of his contributions over the season, but he was the best performing reliever the Halos' system has seen Douglas Brandt in 2007 (who had the advantage of making a number of starts). A 60% groundball rate allowed him to shut down AA hitters despite the lack of K's. He regressed slightly against AAA opposition, but that means he was "just" a well-above-average reliever for Salt Lake. His major league debut wasn't pretty, but he's certainly not alone in that. I don't think he makes the Halos' pen out of spring training next year, and the lack of K's limits his upside, but Mosebach has the makings of a pretty good reliever. 

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Dillon Baird: Angels Best Prospect Performance #9

9) Dillon Baird, 21 - 1B, Advanced Rookie Pioneer League

.372/.454/.568 with 8 HR and 1 SB. +26 bat, +2 glove

Baird was the second Halos' prospect in as many years to win the Pioneer League batting title, showing some patience, pop and plus defense in his pro debut. Moreover, his power increased as the season wore on. He's got a beautiful left-handed stroke and will likely hit for average anywhere, but if he's confined to first base then he'll have to keep hitting for at least above average power. Whether or not he's able to do that in Cedar Rapids will tell us a lot.  I'm optimistic.  

I'll continue posting the top performances through next week.  Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

4 comments  |  0 recs |

Michael Kohn: Angels Top Prospect Performance #10

10) Michael Kohn, 22 - RH RP, A-Ball and High A

6 Wins, 1 Loss, 9 Saves. 65.2 IP, 1.64 ERA, 103 SO/26 BB. +22 runs saved.

Kohn's numbers were even more ridiculously good after a promotion to High A. I saw both the Cedar Rapids and Rancho Cucamonga clubs play last year, yet still missed seeing him pitch, so I'll just rehash what we know from BA, John Sickles, and the Cedar Rapids Gazette: he pitches with deceptively short arm action, helping his mid 90's fastball to jump on hitters, and he's been working to establish consistency with a hard breaking ball. Everything looks good, though if we see him in the bigs before September of next year, something's likely gone very wrong in our pen. 

I'll continue posting the top performances through next week.  Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking. 

10 comments  |  0 recs |

Top Angels' Prospect Performances of 2009: Just How Good Was Mike Trout?

20) Nate Sutton, 26 - Utility, AA

.305/.387/.391 with 2 HR's and 21 SB's. +8 bat, +0 glove

Sutton provided patience at the plate and a veteran presence in the field, which helped to balance an Arkansas club built around young, less polished players. My guess is that he'll start at 2nd base for the Bees next year, while Mount gives AA another go. That puts him just one or two injuries away from the big league club.

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10 comments  |  0 recs |

The Angels Top 32 Prospect Performances, Beginning with Randal Grichuk

Time to kick off prospect season!

Coverage of the 2010 top Angels' prospects begins with a look at the best statistical performances of 2009. Using the generally-accepted sabermetric assessment of a player's contributions, value-over-replacement-player ("VORP"), I ranked the Halos organization's top 32 minor league players of the year.

Halosphere guru Sean Smith (baseballprojection and contributor to minorleaguesplitsbaseballreference, hardballtimes, and fangraphs) gave me a peak at his 2009 Total Zone defensive calculations, which I incorporated into each player's final score. Thanks Sean! 

The +/- bat, +/- glove, and +/- runs saved figures are all in runs relative to the average player in the given prospect's league. I then applied positional and "value over replacement player" adjustments, which is why the +'s and -‘s don't correspond exactly with a player's ranking on the list. Simply put, guys who play everyday over a full season accrue the value they create over inferior players who would otherwise fill their spot. Guys who play skill positions - catcher, short, 2nd and 3rd - accrue more value than those who don't. 

Here are rankings # 32 to # 21. Numbers 11-20 and 1-10 will appear on Halos Heaven later this week.

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