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Measuring the Angels' Depth

How is one to measure the depth of the Angels AT EVERY POSITION on the field? Without claiming any stat-expertise, I have devised this way:

First, I list the depth as the team itself has it listed on its team web site. Let's take them at their word.
Second - I list the 2007 season OPS+/ERA+ for players 31 and over. They are italicized. These numbers are most likely to drift down each season from here on out
Third - I list the career OPS+/ERA+ of the players 30 and under. For players under 27, I bold - these career averages could still go up, this player has not necessarily reached his ceiling. For players 27-30, there is no bold or italics.

In other words: Bold may not have reached their peak, Not bold can be expected to play at about the ceiling they have established, Italics will decline, with only the rate of that decline to be determined.

OPS+ is a baseline of 100 = League Average.

Starting Pitching
J. Lackey - 116
K. Escobar - 134
J. Garland - 106
J. Weaver - 137
J. Saunders - 97
E. Santana - 92

1B
C. Kotchman - 99
K. Morales - 86

R. Quinlan - 101

2B
H. Kendrick - 99
M. Izturis - 90
E. Aybar - *
C. Figgins - 99

3B
C. Figgins - 99
D. McPherson - 96
M. Izturis - 90

SS
E. Aybar - *
M. Izturis - 90
B. Wood - *

LF
G. Anderson - 114
G. Matthews - 93

R. Willits - 95
J. Rivera - 110
R. Quinlan - 101
N. Haynes - *

CF
T. Hunter - 122
G. Matthews - 93

R. Willits - 95
N. Haynes - *

RF
V. Guerrero - 147
G. Matthews - 93

R. Willits - 95
N. Haynes - *
J. Rivera - 110

DH
J. Rivera - 110
R. Willits - 95
R. Quinlan - 101
G. Anderson - 114
V. Guerrero - 147
C. Kotchman - 99
D. McPherson - 96

Bullpen
F. Rodriguez - 188
S. Shields - 118
J. Speier - 103
D. Oliver - 121

C. Bootcheck - 96
D. Moseley - 104
J. Bulger - *
R. Thompson - *

* - too few career innings/AB to be meaningful

TEN THINGS THAT JUMP OUT:

  1. For us to dominate, Howie and Kotch MUST produce.
  2. SS could be a black hole, production-wise.
  3. That outfield will decline because of age and the Angels are banking that it will be a slow escalator down instead of a balcony.
  4. Ditto the late relief.
  5. Good young starting pitching is the franchise life raft if things get rough, the team foundation if we are running on all cylinders.
  6. Is it scarier to think that we won the division because of Darren Oliver or that it was ever in doubt because of Scot Shields?
  7. Does the Gary Matthews Jr. signing look even stupider today than it did a year ago?
  8. Would life be perfect if Kendry Morales played 3B?
  9. We used three home-grown players and two free agents to add six of the players to this list: Kimera Bartee yielded Chone Figgins, Ramon Ortiz brought us Dustin Moseley, Orlando Cabrera brought us John Garland and Jose Guillen brought us Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera. And Alberto Callaspo brought Jason Bulger.
  10. Six Free Agent Acquisitions: Kelvim, Vlad, GMJ, Torii Torii Torii, Speier, Oliver

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments

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i could be mistaken
but didnt morales play 3rd in cuba? i thought i remembered hearing he played 1st, 3rd and a little outfield, but im not positive
"Water DiSar's Garden"

by Sorbo182 on Dec 6, 2007 2:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hands of stone
and feet stuck in cement
Read my bullshit at http://mvn.com/mlb-source/author/seth.keichline/

by Ty Webb on Dec 6, 2007 8:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Your comments
Frankie is at his peak value. He would bring the most in terms of a bat. He stunk last season. Might as well have Shields closing. Shields can work out his personal problems, but putting both those pitchers out there is just too much. With Frankie in a walk year, he should be traded.

Weaver and Santana are keepers. Don't know if Garland will last past this year. So I'd be tempted to move Santana to the bullpen and add Saunders as a possible fifth starter or perhaps trade.

I'd keep Oliver until his arm gives out. He did a bang up job.

You didn't mention catcher. In my opinion Mathis is a 140 game catcher and Buddie is a good backup. There just isn't room for Napoli. Teams wanted Mathis for a reason. If Mathis and Napoli split the duty you might as well send Mathis down or trade him.

Here's what I come up with today with the rather meek team considering the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox.

Figgins
Kendrick
Guerrero
Morales/Anderson - DH
Kotchman
Wood
Hunter
Rivera / GMJ
Mathis

4 OF = Guerrero; Hunter;  Rivera/GMJ
4 IF = Kotchman, Kendrick, Wood, Figgins
11 Pitchers = Lackey, Escobar, Garland, Weaver, Saunders, Santana, Rodriguez, Shields, Speier, Oliver, Bootcheck
2 C = Mathis, Buddie
DH - Morales
3 bench = Anderson, Izturis, Willits

To trade: Quinlan, Napoli, Aybar
Pitching trade = 4: Saunders, Moseley, Rodriguez and Bootcheck

Don't trade Santana. Shields to closer, Speier and Oliver to set-up.

by roidrage on Dec 6, 2007 2:48 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like it.....
Morales and Wood need regular playing time not 6ABs a Week. They need to grow by facing Major League Pitching every day.

Santana could become a dominant closer as well. I dont think Shields would handle it very good.

Put Kendry Morales at 1B, and move Sean Rodriguez to 3B......NOW LETS GO WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by acuda27 on Dec 6, 2007 11:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Morales, Wood , Tejada and Hilenbrand
The Angels have stated that Wood is scheduled to play in 2009.

Obviously, Morales seemed to be an emergency call up after the Hillenbrand fiasco and the DL to Kotchman.

But, I hope they're not really considering Tejada who will try and overpower the chemistry of the team with his machismo. Vlad leads by example, and Hunter is supposed to lead with his easy style. Bringing Tejada, who has clearly started his declining years into this mix may lead to another Hillenbrand, except the Angels will loose valuable players. He has not lead by example.

With the excess talent the Angels have and reading blogs about the lack of pitching in the leagues, seems like the front office should work a lot harder at getting a younger bat at third or SS in exchange for the pitching and players that the Angels should covet, but not feel rushed to join into the Tejada band wagon.

Have they seriously gone after Josh Fields? Anyway, why would the Angels push so hard to give up so much for Tejada?

by roidrage on Dec 6, 2007 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I love the idea of Santana in the pen
He's definitely got the stuff to just come out and baffle hitters for an inning or two.  The problems arise when he has to go 5-7 innings.

by NPCody on Dec 6, 2007 7:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Shortstop
SS could be a black hole, production-wise.

OC OPS+ the last two years: 91, 95
Maicer OPS+ the last two years: 102, 98.  And I think that will go up with increased regularity in his playing time.  I don't think SS will be a problem.

by LA Seitz on Dec 6, 2007 8:09 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Shai-Hulud
John Gibbons is definitely sandworm.

Anyhoo, just to confirm -- excluding McPherson and Wood, is the left side of our infield currently Figgins, Aybar, and Izturis?

by Bilko 420 on Dec 6, 2007 8:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good analysis, Rev
I like the journey into the statistical realm.

This looks good.  Every single one of our starters should be average or above.  That may not sound all that exciting, but that is how you win.  Nobody is going to have an entire team full of 140 OPS+ guys.  The goal is to have as many guys above average as possible and as few below average as possible.  As the team currently stands, they have that.  Now, let's just hope they don't do anything silly.

I echo LA Seitz's comments on SS.  Izturis will be fine.  And who knows - maybe Wood will prove that he's ready (if SS is even still an option for him).

The fact is: this team can and will win the division.  Maybe they're a small step below the Red Sox and Tigers, but it's not worth making drastic changes just to slightly increase our chances of winning a five game series.

by Dogman on Dec 6, 2007 8:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Panther answer.
"The fact is: this team can and will win the division.  Maybe they're a small step below the Red Sox and Tigers, but it's not worth making drastic changes just to slightly increase our chances of winning a five game series."

This is the gospel truth, folks.

The Hunt for a Red October ...and please keep telling Clutch to chill!

by cardinalwraith on Dec 6, 2007 1:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Izzy
In reviewing Izturis' numbers for '07, if you're able to pro-rate his stats to 600 at-bats, he'll match or come close to OC's 2007 production in doubles and HR. Izzy will walk more, so he'll have a higher OB despite a lower batting average. And we all know how clutch Izturis was with men on base.

I really think that he can thrive in the #2 spot of the lineup. He's a switch-hitter, he doesn't strike out a lot, he gets on base, he can bunt, he can hit and run. But can he stay healthy?

Read my bullshit at http://mvn.com/mlb-source/author/seth.keichline/

by Ty Webb on Dec 6, 2007 8:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Izzy staying healthy is the key question
His hamstrings seem to be darn near recurrent...?!  

I would prefer we give Wood a shot similar to what the Red Sux gave Pedroia...tell him to relax, play defense, his spot is secure, and let his hitting fall where it may!

Stop swinging at balls out of the zone!

by K3YEROUT on Dec 6, 2007 11:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
The inevitable 150 strikeouts/growing pains will feel a lot less painful in the ss slot now than it will at 3b later. He's a regular, but he needs to see a lot of mlb pitching before he hits his stride. Let's get some use out of his ss capability while he still has it.

by rghan on Dec 6, 2007 11:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Priorities
I think we have to lock up KRod and Big Daddy Vladdy before they hit the market.  I won't even worry about trades or free agents next year if we can keep those guys.  KRod may have been a little shakier than normal, but he's still better than most of the closers in the game.  Think about our bullpen if we still had Jenks and Turnbow also.

by ponusbaum43 on Dec 6, 2007 9:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

right on
preach it
Read my bullshit at http://mvn.com/mlb-source/author/seth.keichline/

by Ty Webb on Dec 6, 2007 3:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

voodoo would make a great closer imo
If I hear the word "red sox"...POW!!! RIGHT IN THE KISSER!!!

by Halofanatic on Dec 6, 2007 9:26 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Problem
with assuming that Izturis will do just fine offensively as a SS (and I have no doubt that he would) is the following: Erick Aybar might be the starter.  That's the black hole.

by jjackflash on Dec 6, 2007 10:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hunter
Was at 122 last year, but his career OPS+ is only 104.  He's a decent player, but its a shame we had to spend 18 million on him when we had a chance 3 years ago to spend similar money on Carlos Beltran.
Reagins on a return to Fenway: "Mr. Henry, tear down this wall!"

by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 6, 2007 10:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

<boing!>
No suspension for HGHjr
latimes.com.mx

by Bilko 420 on Dec 6, 2007 2:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Dumb question
Can Kotchman play third?
East coast bias

by Carl Johnson on Dec 6, 2007 3:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kotchman is left handed

by I am a fair weather fan so the halos better win on Dec 6, 2007 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

crap
I always forget about handedness and the left side of the infield.
East coast bias

by Carl Johnson on Dec 6, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

D-Mac
can play 1st.  Ryan Budde is gone, who is our 3rd string catcher?  Having Morales, Rivera, Evans and Willits is too much.
Stay on the damn bag!!

by higdog on Dec 6, 2007 6:41 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Budde is not gone
Whoever posted that was looking at the 2006 rule 5 drafts.  We DID lose Budde in 2006 to philly, but they didn't keep him on the roster all year and so we got him back.
Get M-Cab, try to save the Howie.

by 101halo on Dec 6, 2007 7:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As long as Kotch and Kendrick
can stay out of they way of freak injuries (pitches to the hands, pickoffs to the head...), they WILL produce.

by HawaiiHaloFan35 on Dec 6, 2007 8:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kotchman
Might be a Twin instead of Morneau. The Twins are horrible. Reagins said he was in MN talking about something other than pitching.

That leaves Morneau and Mauer as the two only choices with no room for Kotchman.

I think the Twins can rebuild using his 3 star players and get at least 12 league minimum top prospects, or players making under a certain price range.

The Angels would give a lot for the catcher and 1st baseman

by roidrage on Dec 7, 2007 12:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tejada/Bedard trade?
It looks like Arte is set on Tejada. Why not do a package for him and Bedard? Willits/Rivera Aybar Saunders/El Manejo and maybe some cash or another prospect should get the job done. I think Tejada will greatly improve playing with his buddy Vlad and a rotation of Lackey,Escobar,Weaver,Garland and Bedard, YIKES!!!!! Just a thought!

by hjowen on Dec 6, 2007 11:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Why would they want that?
That is basically our bench for their 2 "best" players. One of whom is young and a stud. No way they accept that. Sorry

by krush40 on Dec 6, 2007 11:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Khalil Green?
Is San Diego still looking for a center fielder and do you think they would deal Khalil Green?  If so would you like him as an Angel?  Thoughts?

by I am a fair weather fan so the halos better win on Dec 7, 2007 8:47 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

There were rumors earlier that they might be
willing to deal him for the right package.  Couldn't find the link--sorry.  But I know he is arbatration eligible and will get a lot more money.  Right now his trade value is high.  But I really don't know if they want to deal him or not.

by I am a fair weather fan so the halos better win on Dec 7, 2007 5:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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