The Wisdom of Matt Welch

by Rev Halofan on Jul 18, 2007 10:17 PM PDT in Angels News

From a Post made on this site after today's loss:

We've got the best record in baseball the past 2.5 years, the past 162 games, and until a couple of days ago, this year too. Teams go through rough patches, especially when they have injuries, and are relying heavily on young players.

Kotchman will shake off the wooze, Napoli & Kendrick will come back, Saunders will pitch better than Santana, and Vlad will once again hit home runs. This is not a .500 team, this is not a second-place team, and this is certainly not a team that needs to make a panicky trade for some overrated DH
- -Matt Welch

'nuff said, 'cept Myspascobar is pitching tomorrow morning.

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"IT" is here....

the slump bug is biting us. all those wonderful bounces we got in June are now hitting the catwalks on the roof of freakin' domed stadiums!!!!!

we got to ride this out and we will.

by SCHalo on Jul 18, 2007 10:15 PM PDT reply actions

Despite my pessimism, it's somewhat comforting

to know that the Mariners are riding a high .600s win percentage wave right now. As our recent experience has shown, even the best teams can rarely can sustain success at that clip. Yeah, the M's are hot right now, but objectively they are a far more flawed and inferior team than the Angels. Eventually their bats will cool off.

The Mariners' upcoming slump, which I'd like to name The Seattle Slide, will hopefully come soon, and will be incredibly entertaining

Light Up That Halo! ...and tell Clutch to chill!

by cardinalwraith on Jul 18, 2007 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions

getting swept...

I look at it this way... dont worry about getting beat by TB. expect going into the season that you will lose at least 8 to KC, at least 8 to TB, and win at least 8 from the Janks, and 18 against texas.
that means we are 26-16. it is what do with the other 120 that keeps us interested.
What is important... Pray the rosary this week, cause we are going to the building the loves to KO our stars. We have lost so many to injury in the baggydome. Even a sweep there wouldnt be bad if we walked out healthy and in one piece. We got Seattle coming up. We can just do this on the head-to-head method.

by Zookeeper on Jul 18, 2007 10:35 PM PDT reply actions

The Seattle Slide will begin on Friday

Take out the "King" and Washburn and what do you have? Toronto sweeps in the Great White North.

by PieceOfAase on Jul 18, 2007 10:48 PM PDT reply actions

Quick... Hit the panic button!

by melvintoast on Jul 18, 2007 11:14 PM PDT reply actions

I'm like a dog, and you're Michael Vick.

You kill me, dude.

(By the way, I hope he rots in hell)

by bc56274 on Jul 18, 2007 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Whats up with Football Players

Doing Stupid ass Shit.

I sweer I would like to Kick the shit out of alot of them.

Pac Man Jones

The Vick Brothers (Dumb ass brain dead people)

All the players who get in Bike crashes without helmets/Drivings License. (Rothelesburger & a couple others ive heared about on the radio)

The ones that carry Guns and Bullet proof vests.

WTF is wrong with them. They are rich and the cant stay out of trouble. I say they get cut from their teams and ban from sports for life for being Dumb Asses.

Put Kendry Morales at 1B, and move Sean Rodriguez to 3B......NOW LETS GO WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by acuda27 on Jul 19, 2007 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions

i'm far from an alarmist but...

we have only three starting pitchers we can count, all of whom have missed starts this year for different ailments and can't hit for power. i think we can get out of this but this could the beginning of the end for this season. i really hope i'm wrong.

by thejd on Jul 19, 2007 8:35 AM PDT reply actions

Polite disagreement

Sorry, but I'm not convinced. 'Do nothing' complacency is a loser's mentality, the difference between being content to merely make the playoffs versus having the vision and bravery it takes to win a championship. Bill Stoneman has been in the former category for the last several years, even if he's done some good things along the way, too. I don't think it's panicy to recognize that the Halos need another stick if they want to go deep.

by Kenny Katella on Jul 19, 2007 9:27 AM PDT reply actions

Sorry in advance

He he...

He said stick and go deep....

by anaheimisnotla on Jul 19, 2007 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions

What big trade did Stoneman make in 2002

What big trade did the Cardinals make in 2006. Jeff Weaver?

What big trade did the White Sox make in 2005. Wilton Guerrero?

Last time a Champion GM traded for someone was in 2004. And the SS he traded for ended up as a free agent and going to the Angels.

by melvintoast on Jul 19, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

The strikes the Angels have against them

Neither Anderson nor Willits really have a corner outfield bat.
In fact, Willits' production over an entire major league season is an open question. As Matt Welch has pointed out elsewhere, his recent slump coincides with an injury, but I'm not entirely sold that that's all there is to it.
Third base also needs some power.
4 and 5 rotation slots are black holes. Joe Saunders has decided he needs to get more strikeouts based on this year's results at AAA, and he's getting lit up for his efforts while losing about 60 points on his groundball/flyball ratio. Saunders doesn't really have an "out" pitch. And then there's the question of who takes over for Bart when management finally decides he has nothing. Dustin Moseley is the logical successor, but he is an unknown at the major league level over an extended stay.
The terrible thinness of the bullpen outside of Frankie and Shields. Justin Speier has been good but I want to see some consistency post-return before I get too excited.
Leg and hand injuries of the type that happened to Napoli and Kendrick tend to linger beyond DL stints, causing them to burn at-bats while being less than productive.
The upcoming schedule, as someone else pointed out, pits the Angels against more over-.500 teams than any other club in contention for the postseason at a time when the Angels are perhaps at their weakest.

A lot is going to have to go right for this to come together. I'm not convinced it will.

Santana's where he belongs. Now it's Bart's turn.

by scareduck on Jul 19, 2007 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Willits et al

Willits can be a fine corner outfield bat at .300/.400/.350 (which is slightly worse than his career stats after 368 plate appearances), as long as A) he's flexible enough to play CF & RF whenever needed, and B) you've got power coming from elsewhere. When Kendrick/Napoli/Kotchman are operating at full strength, the hole in the lineup won't be Willits, but Figgins. And his "recent slump" of the last 8 games has come with an OBP of .378.
3B totally needs power, agreed; and G.A. is a mediocre space-filler at this point until Rivera can hit again.
4 and 5 have been black holes, but I don't think they will be black holes. I know you're looking hard for reasons to downplay Saunders, but he's going to be a significant upgrade to Santana. He's 10-3 with a 4.49 ERA in 20 big league starts, which I think is more relevant than whatever GB/FB ratio he might have this summer in Salt Lake. He's a gamer with good stuff & poise. Colon is the big worry for me; if/when he continues to suck, Moseley will (I think) be a 5.00-type of replacement. But the mere act of replacing Santana w/ Saunders will be significant, given the team's 7-12 record with Ervin starting, 4-1 w/ Saunders.
I think Speier will be fine, as long as he doesn't get sick. His stuff looks nasty.
A lot does not need to go right to make this work. The most important thing, by far, is that Vladdie (or one of the Big 3 starters) not get hurt. Napoli's back, Kendrick's not long, and Kotchman will hit; that combo, at full speed, will paper over a lot of July's angst.

by mattwelch on Jul 19, 2007 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Back atcha

Willits can be a fine corner outfield bat at .300/.400/.350 (which is slightly worse than his career stats after 368 plate appearances), as long as A) he's flexible enough to play CF & RF whenever needed, and B) you've got power coming from elsewhere. When Kendrick/Napoli/Kotchman are operating at full strength, the hole in the lineup won't be Willits, but Figgins.

I've already stated my reasons for believing that Napoli and Kendrick won't be 100% for the rest of the season, or at least through a good bit of August. Kotchman may indeed fight off the woozies, but that really hasn't happened yet. That leaves Willits doing not quite enough in a corner outfield slot.

I know you're looking hard for reasons to downplay Saunders

Not really. Yes, he'll be better than Santana. A lot better? Open question. He got rocked hard the second time teams saw him last year: 5.18 ERA with three apperances in which he didn't make it out of the third. On the other hand, you could argue that it had to do with the specifics of those games:

August 16 in Texas, a notorious pitching hell
August 27 vs. the Yanks, and well, it's the Yankees
September 30 vs. Oakland, and WTF? Later in the season than he had ever pitched?

If you go for the "second time through" argument, it's not good for a late-season return, but if you go for the "late season, young pitcher" argument, that might be a bit more positive. We'll see. Regardless, you're being awfully situational where you use your "small sample size" arguments here; Saunders has barely been in the Show this year, yet you're willing to give him a 'bye because of last year's efforts and completely ignore changes going on at Salt Lake. Bizarro.

Santana's where he belongs. Now it's Bart's turn.

by scareduck on Jul 20, 2007 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Who do the Angels need to worry about?

Tigers? Indians? Aquamen? BoSox? Hey-Rods? I wanna hear the analysis.

by melvintoast on Jul 20, 2007 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Oddly, the second-place Mariners

Imagine! Okay, let's talk this one through, keeping a copy of the B-R 2007 Mariners page handy, as well as a link to Baseball Prospectus's offensive VORP ($) and pitching VORP ($) handy.

1B (Richie Sexson), 2B (Jose Lopez), SS (Yuniesky Betancourt), and LF (Raul Ibanez) are all just-above or black-hole levels of production.
Adrian Beltre is posting his best post-Dodgers season so far. He's a productive player for the first time in a Mariners uniform.
Jose Guillen is also useful, helping out in the outfield in a park notorious for its hostility to RH power hitters, and like Beltre, he's been good for 17.5 VORP, roughly two wins by himself, rounding up.
Ichiro is their crowning player who stands above everyone else with a 44.5 VORP, doing it all despite a well-noted lack of power (.452 SLG, most of which come from his 15 doubles); he's on another planet when it comes to average, though, hitting .352. In general, the M's are an almost exactly average offense, 8th in the league in runs scored.
The rotation isn't great; once you get past "King" Felix and Washburn, things tail off pretty quickly. But that doesn't necessarily matter; the M's have the division's best closer (small sample size caveat tossed Matt's way, of course), who also happens to be their best pitcher (25.3 VORP).
The M's also own the fourth-best bullpen in the league.

The case for a Mariners collapse is, I think, pretty obvious; Beltre regresses to his 2006 level (i.e., June/July are his two good months allotted each year), as does Suzuki (who's only had one .350 year before, back when he was 27). Guillen could also go backwards a step, but remember that most of his bad years have tended to be injury anomalies rather than production variance. Also, the non-Hernandez parts of the rotation could go back to the primordial ooze from which they emerged, with the exception of Washburn, who is about where I expected.

Angels fans can take comfort in the fact that even though Ben Broussard is outproducing Richie Sexson at first, Sexson still gets his name written into the lineup card more, as they seem to have Broussard as Sexson's platoonmate against left-handed pitching. On the other hand, they also seem to have discovered Sexson is awful against right-handed pitching, too, and are lately equalizing Broussard's playing time.

Santana's where he belongs. Now it's Bart's turn.

by scareduck on Jul 20, 2007 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Huh?

The rotation isn't great; once you get past "King" Felix and Washburn, things tail off pretty quickly. But that doesn't necessarily matter; the M's have the division's best closer

WTF does the closer have to do with the lack of starting rotation. You could have Trevor Hoffman as a closer. It doesn't help if you're behind after 8 innings.

You also fail to point out that their Top 2 pitchers have ERAs above 4.

You also fail to point out that if any of their pitchers go down between now and October, their depth consists of a guy with a 9+ ERA and another guy currently on the DL with a 5+ ERA

Over the past 30 days the Mariners are pitching better, at a 3.65 ERA clip vs. 4.52 for the season. Their OPS has been .720 vs .743 for the season.

Do you think their improved pitching indicates that they're getting better or is it just a temporary hot streak?

by melvintoast on Jul 22, 2007 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Good analysis.

Can you do the same analysis on the Red Sox?

by melvintoast on Jul 19, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions

19-21

in the last 40.

Losing record in June.

I'm giving Figgins a big F U. Seattle isn't winning 90. I am not worried.

by hauldog on Jul 20, 2007 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Ying and Yang

Am I the only HH poster who is clamoring for a Scareduck vs. Welch spin off? This stuff is priceless and I want more! Scareduck's insatiable ego, negativity, and love of arcane statistics goes head to head with Welch's grounded yet insightful analysis. Who wouldn't want to turn in? Fantastic. Here's my Red Soxs analysis, Melvin ... They will fade - big time. I'm calling it. The Yankees will catch them and take the division in one of the great second half comebacks in MLB history. And they will miss the playoffs as the wild card will go to the Central.

by Johnny Angel on Jul 19, 2007 8:45 PM PDT reply actions