Kids, I was in somewhat dire straits about the Sox around the beginning of July. We looked like S., and that's always magnified when you are playing against your longtime bitterly-hated division rival.

And what happened then? What in Who-ville, they say?

via assets.sbnation.com

Done with the Dr. Seuss portion. That guy, above, was absolutely phenomenal.

I suppose we shouldn't have been surprised. After all, no less than the man shaking hands with Tito pitched a no-hitter earlier in the season, and he looked incredibly impressive doing that.

But let's face facts about the no-hitter. 1. Kansas City Royals, 12th in the AL in runs and .OBP, were not an offensive juggernaut. 2. At home.

Now those don't make the no-hitter not take place. The odds are generally extremely against no-hitters, even dynamic Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants would have a hard time pitching a no-hitter against his own team's punchless 2008 lineup, with all of those hitters blindfolded.

The point of reminding you those things about the no-hitter are to simply highlight that this shutout was an excellent accomplishment as well, given the situation and the opponent. The Sox BP had been seemingly blowing leads left and right, and the Sox always have a tough time in New York. In addition, the MFYs ended last season 3rd in .OBP, so they would be a particularly difficult team to shutout. No matter. Beyond the first inning, Lester cruised through the Yankees line up as if they were holding wiffle bats and thinking about where to eat after the game. 

In addition, the MFY fans are traditionally the toughest critics of Sox players, and I think this game caused many of those aforementioned fans to cast some begrudging respect toward Lester. They'd probably never admit it, of course, but they were impressed and pissed off by the young left-hander who had swept in with his Sox jersey on, all while treating the Yankee Stadium mound like his own stomping grounds.

In short, this game should have made every Sox fan grin like Tito in the photo above.

I said this after the game:

Lester was excellent. We can't be too down on ourselves with him and Becks in the rotation. This is what he's capable of, ladies and gentlemen, and this performance nor his no-hitter were flukes. He's not going to do this every time out, but I feel awesome about Jon Lester taking the mound these days.

Count me among the longer-lasting skeptics of Jon Lester. I was wildly-excited about his no-hitter as anyone else, but we'd been somewhat punked the year before by someone else, and I just didn't want to get my hopes too high about his consistency. The statement above based on this performance probably signified my ultimate abandonment of skepticism about Lester. 

My near-rant after the game.

Game Thread (started kindly by MGBB).

So it.  Y'know. Something.

I should've posted this, given the title, a few days ago. However, I've worked about 50+ hours in the last four days, including until 4 am on New Year's Eve/New Year's Day. 

Plenty of great discussion in the fanposts, on a number of important topics, all of which should be figured out in 2009.

1. Catcher.

Let's be f'n honest with ourselves. Bard isn't a starting catcher. I'm not sure he's a backup catcher on this team. If Wake retires for some reason before ST, then sure, as a backup. Does anyone really think they'd be content with Bard as the starter? This is like after the 2006 season when the Sox were "comfortable with Alex Cora as the starter at SS". It's posturing, and as the results from that 2006 proclamation can tell you, we ended up bidding against ourselves for a now-$9M backup IF. 

I do think it's silly that some have suggested Varitek couldn't or wouldn't catch Wake with he and Bard more or less splitting time overall. I'd be more comfortable with him than Bard, for sure. Kevin Cash isn't walking through that door, and it's not like Varitek has been throwing anyone out anyway. This could qualify as an aesthetic thing, but I'd love to see us get on track to having a catcher who can throw out more than 4% of runners. I don't know how we're going to do that, but hey. A guy can dream. Greg(g) Zaun anyone (random, I know)?

2. Starting Pitching.

I also don't think we're really done here. Penny could be a good pickup, sure, but I have to imagine Lowe's demands will come down in accordance with no one offering him the money he wants, and the Sox will jump back in. Could be in on Kawakami as well. 

3. The Bench.

I don't know what the deal is with Lugo, Lowrie, and the backup IF position. I wouldn't be crazily opposed to hanging onto Lugo if he's willing to backup SS, 2b, 3b, and a bit in the OF as needed. He can still run, his .OBP was actually decent last season, and unlike Alex Cora, I wouldn't do a complete double-take if he had to (knock on wood) take over for an injury at 2b or SS. Other options if we can trade Lugo: Willie Bloomquist (add back the "complete double-take" in reference to starting, and he could do most everything we'd expect from Lugo as the backup), Juan Uribe? Alex Cintron? David Eckstein? How about a backup corner guy? Internally, we could go with Jeff Bailey or Chris Carter. Outside? Doug Malphabet (.OBP and defense), Nomar (nostalgia?), Hinske (no one going to give him a shot starting at 1b or LF?). Funny thing I found out looking up Malphabet and our backup 1B last season: Sean Casey is not, in fact, older than Doug despite looking and playing like he's 50. 

4th OF, of course, is not a solved problem either. Amongst FAs who can approximate (or better) playing CF; Baldelli, Kapler, Kotsay. I left Edmonds off on purpose. 

We can go a number of ways with this. Defense/versatility: Uribe, Malphabet, Kotsay. Not sure how well he did it, but Malphabet played 1b, 3b, and rf last season. Uribe: 3b, 2b, ss, and Kotsay in all 3 OF spots and 1b. Offense: Lugo (surprising/depressingly), Bailey, Hinske, or Carter and Baldelli. I dunno.

4. Andruw Jones.

Final item for me, and I've gotta get ready to go back to work. No. Final answer. OMFG no. I guess I had more to say. Probably completely useless at this point. Probably done now.

Anyway. Absolutely not. This is a player who successfully, in a pretty unprecedented way, restructured his contract in order to better facilitate a trade, and apparently the MLBPA did nothing to even lean in the way. 

via cache.daylife.com

It's safe to say that the first day of August dawned with a number of conflicting feelings for Red Sox fans. I'm going to sell myself out as a big softy by telling you that I nearly considering crying for a few seconds. It was a potentially dark day.

Franchise icon and all-around paragon of focus, Manuel Ramirez, had been traded the day before to a baseball club in Los Angeles, whose fans were so lacking in seething intensity that they'd hadn't stormed the stadium and kidnapped Andruw Jones yet. 

I'm babbling now.

The point is, life with Manny Ramirez had been predictably unpredictable for at least 4-76 years with "Being" in the fold, with no idea how life would be without him. Even those holding the torches and pitchforks on his way out of town, no doubt, had a few seconds pause about trading a certain Hall of Famer for a guy who played in a city where baseball is only a vague rumor whispered at Heinz Field in the fall.

I babble again.

via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com

In any event, August 1st dawned as the Jason Bay era in Boston, and if you had no misgivings about the change, then my guess is that you're probably a Reds, Royals, or Tigers fan or something. How would Bay react to actual fans in one of the most historic ballparks in baseball, as opposed to strategically-placed cardboard cutouts and state-of-the-art animatronic humans in one of the most beautiful modern ballparks in the country/world? 

Holy S.

In any case, Bay was not our only concern among the position players. Lowrie had taken over for Julio Lugo not too long before this day as well, and he was still finding his way as a player and as a hitter in the bigs. So of course, in true sports cliche fashion, these two would combine to enable an extra-inning walkoff win against the A's on the very day after the "Being" trade.

Both played well the entire game, with Bay making an excellent sliding catch that his predecessor almost certainly wouldn't have, and reached base 4 times in 6 plate appearances, including a rather crucial 3B. Lowrie played both ss and 3b in the game, and went 2 for 4 with a sacrifice and a sacrifice fly. 

However, despite our two heroes efforts in the first several innings, the Sox were tied 1-1 with the A's after Okajima coughed up the tying home run in the 8th. The game progressed to the 12th, in which Mike Timlin? turned in a scoreless inning. Former Sox Alan Embree got two quick outs in the 12th before Jason Bay tripled. The A's opted to intentionally walk clutch assassin J.D. Drew in favor of facing rookie Jed Lowrie. Lowrie promptly hit a walkoff infield single to end the game in stunning fashion for the Sox, leading to the scene depicted in the banner photo.

OTM's Thread (With lineups, which should serve to remind you just how silly it was/is to bat even a healthy Lowell in the 4-spot over Bay.)

Supplemental Thread

Randy tells it like it is. (And gets a little bit gushy? I kid.)

via assets.espn.go.com

So in the wake of not signing Teixeira, (btw: interesting take on the Yankees and money on BTF) many overreacted and apparently decided we should spend some or all of the money earmarked for Tex somewhere, and this guy was suggested as a recipient of some of that money.

I'm going to ignore a few possible assumptions about Brian Fuentes for the time being.

1. He wants to close

2. ...on a contender.

3. He'd be worth giving up our first pick in the draft.

In other words, let's look at this as purely a cost-benefit scenario for the Sox.

In 2008, Fuentes was actually 5th among qualified RPs in FIP, behind two other guys questionable to repeat such performances (Grant Balfour, Hong-Chih Kuo) and two guys who've been among the standard setters for RPs the last few years (one for much longer: Mariano Rivera and Paps). Great company to be in, right? Balfour and Kuo COULD be one-year wonders, but their performances in 2008 were certainly excellent. With Fuentes, however, we've got a bit of history to go on regarding how long he's been considered among closers/premier RPs.

With regard to FIP, his company in 2007 included pitchers like Jamie Walker, Oscar Villarreal, Chad Cordero, and Chris Bootcheck amongst others. Not an "awful" reliever in the bunch, but not exactly premier talent either. 2006? Scott Proctor, John Grabow, Hector Carrasco, Chad Paronto, and Bill Bray amongst others. Again. We're not talking anyone who's going to kill your bullpen, certainly no absolute gas cans in the mix. And his first season as closer, 2005? Michael Wuertz, Jeff Fassero, Doug Brocail, Derrick Turnbow, Akinori Otsuka and Roberto Hernandez.

It's not as though the team that signs Fuentes is going to have a timebomb on their hands: it's that they probably should've just signed Bobby Howry or Jeremy Affeldt a long time ago for less. It's not as though the Mets wouldn't be better off health-wise with Fuentes, it's that if you want dominance from the position, you're much better off with K-Rod and his eventual TJ surgery bill, with Putz as a very viable insurance option.

The point is, even as a setup man, Fuentes will get, at least, mid-tier closer money and length. He's simply not worth it, so let's just ignore him until he eventually, hopefully, signs with someone else.

Now, let's add in a couple of those assumptions I dismissed earlier.

1. He wants to close.

And maybe he should be able to. There are certainly contenders or near-contenders for whom he'd be an improvement over their closer situation. However, the Sox have three relievers (Oki, MDC, Ramirez) who would likely be within spitting distance of Fuentes's results closing if Paps does go down with injury. He also might sign and acknowledge that he'd be taking a backseat to Paps, but he could be disappointed with a role as the secondary LH setup man.

3. He'd be worth giving up our first pick in the draft.

No.

I hope this helped clear things up for anyone who still wants Brian Fuentes, Red Sox RP, to become a reality. 

At the time, we were actually one run ahead, though we eventually lost the game. The stage is set: inning 4, @ Baltimore, Sox ahead 1-0 with Jon Lester on the mound. 1 out, 2 runners on, and Kevin Millar at the plate. He probably looked a lot like this:

via i.pbase.com

Millar hit a deep drive to LF, one which we probably all believed was either going out or off the wall to score at least the tying run. "Being" comes in, seemingly out of nowhere (and didn't he always seem like that) to catch the ball at the wall. He also did something else:

via multimedia.heraldinteractive.com

As "Being"'s momentum carried him to the wall, the Boston fan in the front row, seen above, got a high five from "Being" before he came down to the ground and threw the ball into DP, who relayed the ball to Youks to double off Aubrey Huff at first.

Now, the play itself was terrific, robbing a near HR and turning it into a double play. The high-five, however, catapults it into being extremely notable.

Anyone remember the footage NESN, ESPN, etc. showed of players crowding around the nearest camera in the dugout to watch the footage? Lowell looked like he was going to piss himself, in particular. It certainly made everyone laugh. And yet, because it was "Being", it wasn't entirely unexpected. 

That's really some of the best about Manuel in a Red Sox uniform, and it's how, unless he decides to don pinstripes, we should remember him in my opinion. It was absolutely time for him to go, but he provided us with plenty of entertainment and a lot of excellent and clutch hitting. And that's the number 9 moment of '08.

My thoughts on an otherwise depressing series in Baltimore.

CC's Game Thread.

OTM's Game Thread (Kindly supplied by brit).

I've been meaning to link to this for a few days now, and really just kept forgetting.

Joy of Sox is, in my opinion, an excellent Sox blog (by Allan Wood, who would probably insist that I'm the one who misspells my name. Ridiculous.)

Joy of Sox is up for Best Sports Blog in the Canadian Blog Awards.

Vote. Do it now. 

For the purposes of this posting, I'm restricting it to the top top free agents. Any who've been rumored or speculated as fits for the Sox.

CC Sabathia

This was a rumor that more or less began today with rumors of a meeting between CC and the Sox. My guess? They were feeling out just how much he wants and how much (based on the rumors around) he does or doesn't want to pitch in New York.

Call it due diligence, call it driving up the price, call it genuine interest if you want. I personally think it's the first, myself. I can't imagine the Sox are going to shell out top dollar for CC over Tex, though CC might be easier to (no pun intended) fit on the roster currently.

Derek Lowe

I'm so confused about Lowe. I think he has matured since his time in Boston, and that he's as good a bet as any 35(almost 36) year old to throw 800 innings at at least a 3rd-starter level over four years that has come up in the FA market for awhile. That sentence was a mouthful.

The point is, Lowe is a solid investment depending upon what he and Boras are thinking in terms of AAV. What's he worth? Depends upon how you want to look at it. Is he worth $4M more per year than Gil Meche? Probably. Is he worth $3M more per year than Carlos Silva? Almost certainly. But that might be a bad way to look at it. Either way, the point is whether you think Lowe is worth 4/$60M, because that's probably what his final contract will look like. The only reason I'd be against the contract itself is if it makes us less likely to extend Becks again, or of being able to incorporate Bowden or Buch into the rotation in the next year or so. 

A.J. Burnett

My thoughts? No thank you. We can argue about his 'stuff' relative to his peers all day long. And my point isn't about the "intangibles" or anything of that nature. I just think he's a good bet to disappoint over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal, whether you think it'll be by injury or performance. I might be being a little stupid about this, and that's okay. Let me know if you think so. On the plus side for me, we haven't been linked to A.J. too much.  

Ben Sheets

I truly think there's a good chance Ben Sheets will be a member of the Red Sox if he can't get a multiyear deal anywhere else. That being said, I think there's a very slim chance he won't be offered a multiyear deal so it's probably not worth thinking about. Like Burnett, and maybe moreso, he's quite an injury risk. But he's a good risk in the short term for a team with the pitching depth to cover him if he misses 5-8 starts a year. I like his K/BB (3.36) which is third among FA starters this offseason and he's not especially prone to the long ball. (Comment starter: 1st in K/BB of FAs? Sabathia. #2? Randy Johnson. Am I alone in wishing he'd be likely to consider an east coast team?)

Rafael Furcal

This was purely speculation on MLBTR sometime last week, but apparently there was a mystery team that put in a bid for Furcal, and we were speculated as that team.

Nothing wrong with a little speculation, and the Sox have been known to operate a bit behind the scenes like that, but I see no way in which that was plausible unless a deal involving Lugo were going to happen within a week of that signing. Even then, dubious at best. Dismiss it from your minds, and now I'm wondering why I wrote all this about him. Oh well. Way too lazy to delete.

Mark Teixeira

This whole post is actually due to BoSox415's posting about Teixeira and whether we're still interested or not.

I'd say yes. And we know several things about Teixeira. Let's do some questions and answers. (with me playing both parts)

Does Mark Teixeira want a truckload of money?

Yes. Absolutely.

Does Mark Teixeira care a lot about winning?

Don't know, actually. His primary concern could be money. It could be individual awards. It could be any number of things. We like to think all pro athletes are in it to win it. And Tex probably is. But we don't really know. 

What's the best fit for Mark Teixeira?

Honestly, it might be Anaheim. Despite how good Vlad is, he'd really be the lynchpin of that offense, and would probably be pushed to the forefront as the star of that team within a year or two. Better-than-solid pitching staff, and a semi run-down division in terms of real competition. They also have that money he probably wants a lot of.

Well, that was fun. I guess the point is that all the news about Tex is old news, and probably will be for awhile longer. And as much as I emphasized the money issue, I don't want to portray him as money-grubbing or greedy. I don't think that's the case. But he is going to get PAID, and it's worth thinking about the length and monetary commitment 6 or 7 thousand times before coming to a decision about whether it's a good idea. If you do think it's a good idea, then make sure you don't think about Lars Anderson as a roadblock. The Sox's likely #1 (according to most publications(probably)/sites) prospect this year is still a prospect. 

We could always stand pat and use the extra savings to sign Lebron James or Chris Bosh. 

...finally getting back to this, sorry.

16-20.

11-15.

10. Will Middlebrooks, IF

2008 Numbers: A, 59 G 226 PA .254/.298/.368 17 2B 2 3B 1 HR 10 SB

Middlebrooks made all his defensive appearances at 3b, but he's not necessarily locked-down to that position for the future. SS is probably out as an option, but need could still move him to the other IF corner or an OF corner given his offensive ceiling. That being said, at 19, in short-season A-ball, more probably could have been expected of Middlebrooks. The 10 SB in 10 tries is impressive for a 3b given the amount of playing time. The Sox knew Middlebrooks was a high-ceiling semi-project when they drafted him, and there's nothing to dissuade either part of that notion right now.

9. Brandon Moss, OF

Moss is gone, of course. I'm sure we're all rooting for him to succeed as a starting OF in Pittsburgh.

8. Nick Hagadone, LHP

2008 Numbers: A, 3 G (3 GS) 1.10 WHIP 10 IP 12 K 0.00 ERA

Hagadone had to have TJ surgery in June, cutting short his 2008 season. He's a tall lefty, who may end up as a SP or a RP if he makes the majors. Don't look too closely at his numbers next year until at least the middle/end of the season. The few professional innings he's thrown in his career (also 2007) lend credence to the idea that he has some promise as a pitching prospect. Temper expectations untll 2010, kids.

7. Ryan Kalish, OF

2008 Numbers: A, 96 G 420 PA .281/.376/.356 16 2B 1 3B 3 HR 18 SB (4 CS)

                            A+, 18 G 82 PA .233/.305/.397 6 2B 2 HR 1 SB

Some soured on Kalish a bit this year, and I think that we just might be thinking about him the wrong way. This guy has the potential to be a top defensive player in the outfield, still, runs pretty well and takes walks at a pretty good rate throughout his pro career. We all want to see Nick Markakis, because really, that's what Soxprospects.com lists as his MLB comp, and Soxprospects.com is an excellent site as a resource for all prospects in the system. He's going to be just 21 this season coming, and he can definitely grow into some more power, so it's not necessarily, wrong, though Markakis has proven himself to be a pretty special player.

I've rambled. The point is this. Just because Kalish hasn't hit double-digit home runs yet doesn't mean he won't, and his pro career to this point hasn't exactly been discouraging. He could turn out to be a potentially good leadoff hitter and CF, or he may end up showing enough power that moving him to a corner seems smart. Either way, let's not sell on him just yet. 

6. Lars Anderson, 1B

2008 Numbers: A+, 77 G 358 PA .317/.408/.513 19 2B 1 3B 13 HR

                            AA, 41 G 163 PA .316/.436/.526 13 2B 5 HR 1 SB

If Anderson was trying to keep Red Sox Nation's expectations down, he did a pretty poor job. At the age of 20, he OPS'd over 900 at two different MiL levels, and has reportedly worked to become a pretty good defensive first baseman. Most likely, the Sox will be a little less excitable than we are, and most probably he'll spend all of next year at AA unless his own performance (and by this I mean OPS'ing at like 1.100 through the end of July) or injury demand that he move up. 

That being said, there's no reason beyond trade to not see Lars Anderson as potentially a huge part of the Sox's future at 1B or DH, and even an OF corner if they decide he'll only make it that way. He's still got time to add more muscle and power, and still hit 32 2Bs and 18 HRs in 118 MiL games last season.

Summary:

5 more. One gone. One working back from TJ surgery, he'll be potentially more of a factor in 2010. Two who have done good or okay, but remain more of potential at this point. And one, Lars Anderson, who may be our  #1 prospect at this point. Other than Lars, the others may drop some, but still should all be good enough to crack the top 20 next time we make those tough decisions.

Thanks to Soxprospects.com and B-R as always.

1. I pitch for the Boston Red Sox.

2. I have been considered a potential ace for a number of years. There are many who are reluctant to give me the "ace" label now.

3. According to Fangraphs.com's numbers, I was 6th among qualified ML starters in Fielding Independent Pitching this past season, behind only Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, and Roy Halladay.

4. I was 3rd among qualified ML starters in K/BB behind Roy Halladay and Dan Haren. I lowered my walk rate and upped my K-rate from my 2007 numbers. I, of course, led my own team in both categories.

5. Out of my three seasons with the Red Sox, there are many who would say that I only pitched well for one.

6. Only Tim Wakefield, among my teammates, had a better WHIP than I did this season. I was 7th in the AL in this category.

7. I am quick to take the blame for losses and to give credit to others when I win. 

8. I am definitely a better pitcher than the still good pitcher who led my team in wins this season.

Who am I? (Answer within)

Continue reading this post »

...plugging right along.

16-20.

15. Michael Almanzar, IF

2008 Numbers: R, 23 G 99 PA .348/.414/.472 6 2B 1 3B 1 HR 3 SB (3 CS)

                            A, 35 G 147 PA .207/.238/.314 5 2B 2 3B 2 HR 0 SB (1 CS)

Almanzar is potential. That line of his in A-ball doesn't look too good, but this was his age 17 season. He has enough potential, talent, and athleticism that the Sox wanted to give him an extended look against tougher competition. His long-term position is ?, though he played all his defensive innings at 3B. This is a guy I expect to move up on the list. Have to keep in mind his age, because going through rookie ball like he did (smallish sample aside) at age 17 is pretty impressive, especially for someone who didn't play a lot of baseball before the Sox signed him at 16.

14. Aaron Bates, 1B

2008 Numbers: AA, 124 G 530 PA .276/.366/.420 29 2B 2 3B 11 HR

Bates will be an absolute afterthought on any 2009 prospect lists. He's 24, plays only 1B, and his only big power "year" came at Lancaster in 2007. He's not cooked, but he's probably not even an edge of the peripheral part of the FO's long-term plans at this point. He illustrates an important point about prospects and positions. If he played 3B, he'd still be, at least, interesting at this point.

13. Josh Reddick, OF

2008 Numbers: A, 14 G 58 PA .340/.397/.491 4 2B 2 3B 2 SB (1 CS)

                             A+, 76 G 331 PA .343/.375/.593 11 2B 8 3B 17 HR 9 SB (1 CS)

                             AA, 34 G 132 PA .214/.290/.436 4 2B 2 3B 6 HR 3 SB (1 CS)

Reddick is a multitalented outfielder. He's definitely destined to move up the list. His power numbers are good, especially if he makes it as a RF, and he's shown the ability to steal some bases. He makes good hard contact on the ball. The only caveat with Reddick is plate discipline. Will he be able to put up a line similar to his .309/.354/.538 career line in the minors, or will his lack of patience get in the way of his development and turn him into another Jeff Francoeur? Either way, the ability and even performance (those AA numbers don't look great, but the power itself was there, and he was still only 21) make him one of the best Sox OF prospects right now.

12. Chris Carter, 1B/LF/DH

2008 Numbers: AAA, 121 G 522 PA .300/.356/.515 25 2B 2 3B 24 HR

Carter's probably going to drop off the list, but this is good news. One, it has to do with other guys we've acquired and developed, not because he was a poor player this season. He also might be a bit old to consider a true "prospect" at this point, a la Jeff Bailey. His future was as a backup 1B/DH/COF anyway, and Chris Carter himself would tell you that you can't fight the future.

11. Oscar Tejeda, IF

2008 Numbers: A, 97 G 396 PA .261/.301/.347 18 2B 1 3B 4 HR 11 SB (5 CS)

Tejeda is projection and potential at this point. His performance isn't eye-popping, though he's 18 so he can get a bit of a pass there at the A-level. It's fair to say that he's full of promise, but we've yet to see a lot of translation of that promise. Played SS and 3B in A-ball this year, though his bat will fit a lot better as a SS or 2B given what we've seen thusfar. He'll probably drop a few spots.

Summary:

Better than the last one. Reddick's stock is rising, and Tejeda and Almanzar have tons of untapped potential. Bates might not even be marginal at this point. Carter won't see his stock plummet, but he's 26 and will make room for younger and more talented players on this list. 

Thanks to Soxprospects.com and B-R as always.