Suboptimal’s post got me thinking. My curiosity goes beyond just the hitting coach, though: It seemed to me that the Angels, as opposed to other organizations, had difficulty developing hitters. Matt Welch seemed curious, too. Many of them had done well, to various degrees, during their minor league career, yet couldn’t seem to carry that success over into the major leagues. I realize that almost every rookie suffers through some growing pains, but eventually the good ones "figure it out." Ours didn’t. Or so it seemed.
THE METHODOLOGY
As someone who prefers to rely on facts, I decided to take a few minutes and find out if my hunch was true. In order to determine this, though, I needed to set some basic criteria. I tried to keep it simple, too. I decided to use simple slash stats that almost every fan knows and understands. It may be crude, but I believe it gets the job done.
I looked at batters with current teams who:
► Were drafted by that team
► Had over 1,000 AB's by the end of 2009
► Had 100 AB's this year
I used that easily identifiable criteria because I wanted to see which teams
► Drafted the right "type" of player
► Developed them throughout the minors
► Reaped the rewards via major league performance
Guys like Grady Sizemore and Michael Young spent a lot of time in their respective team's minor league systems, but were not drafted by Cleveland or Texas, so I left them off. Maybe the Indians and Rangers played a part, perhaps a huge part, in each player's major league success, but then the waters started getting murky as to which point we give the current organization credit or the original organization credit. I decided to keep it simple. Feel free to disagree with my methodology. But the players I chose are "pure" in that no other organization has tainted them in any way.
That being said, I included Peralta and Martinez with the Indians even though neither is with Cleveland anymore. They were both drafted and developed by the Indians, and I felt they each added to the discussion. So I cheated with those two, but not much.
The list of the Angels players includes extra players who did not qualify due to limited AB's or who were "players of interest." You'll see why when you check out their section.
So, using my handy dandy Baseball America Register, I looked up each player that qualified, and simply looked up their career minor league stats, and compared them to their career major league stats. Crude, but easily understandable. Finally, I compared their minor league OPS with their major league OPS. The +/- score is in the last column.
THE LIST
BOS |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Youkilis |
|
299 |
442 |
439 |
881 |
|
292 |
391 |
487 |
878 |
-3 |
Pedroia |
|
308 |
392 |
454 |
846 |
|
307 |
370 |
455 |
825 |
-21 |
Ellsbury |
|
314 |
390 |
426 |
816 |
|
297 |
350 |
414 |
764 |
-52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYY |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Cano |
|
278 |
331 |
425 |
756 |
|
306 |
339 |
480 |
819 |
+63 |
Jeter |
|
308 |
385 |
418 |
803 |
|
317 |
388 |
459 |
847 |
+44 |
Posada |
|
258 |
368 |
436 |
804 |
|
277 |
379 |
480 |
859 |
+55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOR |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Wells |
|
289 |
350 |
463 |
813 |
|
280 |
329 |
470 |
799 |
-14 |
Lind |
|
318 |
380 |
509 |
889 |
|
287 |
338 |
495 |
833 |
-56 |
Hill |
|
295 |
371 |
423 |
794 |
|
285 |
337 |
434 |
771 |
-23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TB |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Crawford |
|
295 |
336 |
400 |
736 |
|
295 |
335 |
437 |
772 |
+36 |
Longoria |
|
301 |
386 |
534 |
920 |
|
277 |
355 |
528 |
883 |
-37 |
Upton |
|
297 |
393 |
457 |
850 |
|
266 |
352 |
410 |
762 |
-88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BAL |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Markakis |
|
301 |
380 |
471 |
851 |
|
298 |
367 |
470 |
857 |
-14 |
Roberts |
|
281 |
377 |
372 |
749 |
|
284 |
356 |
421 |
777 |
+28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MIN |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Morneau |
|
310 |
378 |
527 |
905 |
|
280 |
350 |
501 |
851 |
-54 |
Mauer |
|
332 |
407 |
426 |
833 |
|
327 |
408 |
483 |
891 |
+58 |
Cuddyer |
|
290 |
380 |
485 |
865 |
|
270 |
344 |
457 |
801 |
-64 |
Span |
|
286 |
356 |
357 |
713 |
|
305 |
390 |
422 |
812 |
+99 |
Kubel |
|
320 |
385 |
499 |
884 |
|
278 |
339 |
474 |
813 |
-71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CHI |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
None |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DET |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Inge |
|
248 |
317 |
421 |
738 |
|
236 |
305 |
394 |
699 |
-39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
KC |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Gordon |
|
325 |
432 |
583 |
1015 |
|
250 |
331 |
415 |
746 |
-269 |
DeJesus |
|
301 |
400 |
464 |
864 |
|
286 |
358 |
425 |
783 |
-81 |
Butler |
|
336 |
416 |
561 |
977 |
|
291 |
346 |
451 |
797 |
-180 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CLE |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Peralta |
|
277 |
353 |
414 |
769 |
|
266 |
331 |
425 |
756 |
-13 |
Martinez |
|
316 |
399 |
475 |
874 |
|
299 |
372 |
465 |
837 |
-37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OAK |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Suzuki |
|
283 |
380 |
419 |
799 |
|
272 |
329 |
398 |
727 |
-72 |
Chavez |
|
301 |
357 |
527 |
884 |
|
268 |
345 |
482 |
827 |
-57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TEX |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Kinsler |
|
301 |
378 |
497 |
875 |
|
279 |
350 |
477 |
827 |
-48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SEA |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Lopez |
|
288 |
331 |
433 |
764 |
|
271 |
303 |
412 |
715 |
-49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LAA |
Minors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Majors => |
Avg |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
Min/Maj +/- |
Kendrick |
|
360 |
403 |
569 |
972 |
|
302 |
333 |
434 |
767 |
-205 |
Aybar |
|
312 |
357 |
453 |
810 |
|
285 |
324 |
383 |
707 |
-103 |
Napoli |
|
257 |
374 |
470 |
844 |
|
256 |
358 |
493 |
851 |
+7 |
Kotchman |
|
324 |
406 |
492 |
898 |
|
269 |
337 |
406 |
743 |
-155 |
Morales * |
|
332 |
373 |
528 |
901 |
|
283 |
334 |
505 |
839 |
-62 |
Mathis * |
|
277 |
340 |
444 |
784 |
|
200 |
277 |
320 |
597 |
-187 |
Willits * |
|
299 |
393 |
390 |
783 |
|
265 |
365 |
309 |
674 |
-109 |
Wood * |
|
286 |
354 |
541 |
895 |
|
192 |
222 |
313 |
535 |
-360 |
* Less than 1,000 AB's |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COMMENTS
Obviously, most players' major league OPS are lower than their minor league OPS. That makes intuitive sense. But I believe the best organizations can keep the drop off to a minimum. One organization, in fact, develops players that actually improve during their big league careers (TMFY). Most organizations are OK - some a little better than others. The Royals have two big "minuses" in Gordon and Butler, yet their OPS's are still halfway decent. Those two hitters simply dominated the minors.
And then....the Angels. Aside from Gordon, Howie has the biggest drop off from his minor league OPS to his major league OPS. Just amazing. Kotchman's plunge is equally impressive, as is Mathis. Aybar and Willits don't looks so hot, either. Wood is just off the charts crazy. (Please note that I included Kotchman because he never realized his promise as an Angel, and his walk rates were plummeting even before he got traded. Call it artistic license. Sue me).
(Now, before you say that Salt Lake and Rancho Cucamonga are the culprits, I might remind you that A) Arkansas and Cedar Rapids are NOT hitters havens, and B) other teams have affiliates in the PCL, too, and their hitters seem to develop nicely.)
Now it's true that this may not be Hatcher's fault. But it is definitely an organizational flaw that only Napoli has been able to avoid. The Red Sox, Twins and Yankees all seem to be able to bring up hitters and have them perform. Toronto and Tampa Bay seem fine, too. Why can't the Angels? Are they drafting the wrong kind of player. Teaching them improperly throughout the minors?