I hate to bring out the lyrics, again, but it just seemed so appropriate:

"Why do you build me up? (Crowd singing: Positive WPA)

Just to let me down? (Crowd singing: Negative WPA)"

Arte's Favorite Anthem has more truth to it than we could have ever thought.

Sometimes we're very, very good. At times we're very, very bad.

And it's pissing us off because we don't know whether to give up, or continue to believe.

Out of curiosity, I headed over to Baseball-Reference.com and used their handy-dandy research tools. While poking around, I started looking up league-wide Win Probability Added and Win Probability Subtracted. It seemed to me that we were effing up at the most inopportune times (Trumbo caught stealing when Callaspo couldn't bunt), yet we still had several clutch moments (Kendrick 2 home run game).

Now, Win Probability is all about context. We know that a Vernon Wells solo shot in the 9th inning of a blowout is much less valuable than a Mark Trumbo walk off homer. So score, inning, runners on bases, etc. etc. all matter. And that's what seemed to be happening to us this year. Crappy play at crucial times.

(For the technically minded, straight from FanGraphs)

Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team's win expectancy on a per-play basis.

For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays' win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist's WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team's win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 - .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.

OK, on to what I found out.

We are by far the most volatile, up-and-down, rollercoaster-riding team in the American League.

To start with, guess who had the BEST single game WPA so far this season? El Hombre. If you recall that game against Houston, we had our backs against the wall twice and Albert came through each time - a single to start a rally in the 8th, and a double, with 2 outs, to win the game in the 9th. Trumbo and Howie's game winners were highly ranked, too.

So, the following guys had a really good day at work. Notice that some of our opponents had their best days against us.

But we've been very UN-clutchy, too. Next, below, is a list of the worst single game performances (as measured by WPA-) this year. Although we barely had anybody in the Top 10, we practically rule the Top 27. We have far more players in the Top 27 than any other team.

What does that mean? These guys came up to bat in key situations, and single-handedly ruined our scoring chances. There is a particularly overpaid free agent who shows up more than anybody else.

These are guys that had a really bad day at work. Poor Victor Martinez. Interestingly enough, some of our opponents also had their worst days against us:

Our pitchers can get in on this, too. We only had one guy in the Top 25 so far this year, and that just happened the other day.

This basically means that we haven't had very strong starting pitching. No kidding.

But Jason also is the proud owner of our worst game:

You might be asking why Vargas' and Richards' performances are "worse" than Bluto's. The answer primarily lies in the fact that Jason and Garrett received early run support and continued to spit the bit. Put another way: the run support created a high likelihood (probability) of a win, and their poor pitching ruined that probability. Bluto sucked, but the Halo's were never really "in" those games.

I know our bullpen sucks. too, but looky here: Jerome has not one, but the top TWO best relief performances of the year so far. And we have FOUR other pitchers in the top 15! WOW.

Our bullpen does suck, though. It's just a little more subtle:

Interestingly enough, our relief pitchers don't have the biggest meltdowns in the league so far this year. Our relievers, on the other hand, have just been consistently poor. Once you get past the Top 50 reliever meltdowns, you see a lot of "challenging" pitching; pitchers that come in and leave things generally (but not always HORRIBLY) worse. Considering there are about 1200 reliever games in the league, it is worth noting that we have so many guys in the top 100.

I'll wrap things up with cumulative season tables.

These players have piled up a lot of positive events/AB's:

Again, a lot of clutch hitting.

But a lot of UN-clutch hitting.

OUCH.

Half the list is comprised of our favorite team. No other team is even close. That's, um, basically our lineup that goes out there every day.

And, finally, pitchers:

Yes, you read that right. David Price has had the most positive events, and the most negative. Talk about a rollercoaster ride.

Yet, you see two Angel starters in that same group (Wilson and Vargas), and another who barely missed (Blanton). Laying claim, yet again, to the volatility we've come to expect from this team. Up. And Down. Good. And Bad.

So next time you're complaining during the game thread that this team is giving you a heart attack, know this: The boys in red really ARE buttercupping you.

"And then worst of all (worst of all) you never hit, baby
When you say you will (say you will) but I love you still"