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AL Wild Card Watch September 22nd

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Only so many ways left to do the math...

Cleveland Indians v Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

To see how this has changed, check out the September 7th update here and September 12th update and September 15th update.

The Angels have 10 games left this season and they are still in the wild card hunt. I think. Here are we are now on the cusp and the Texas Rangers are in the EXACT same boat - 2.5 games back from the Twins for that coveted 2nd wild card.

Back to .500 and on a 4 game losing streak - the Angels are sliding into the Astros series with a limp. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won their last 4 to put their playoff odds in line with the Angels and potentially putting them in line to bump the Angels to a 3rd place AL West finish.

Predicting wins and losses is a tricky thing and if anyone was THAT good at it, they’d be making a fortune in Vegas. But the charts below represent how teams are playing now, how they have played against specific opponents in this year, and how they have played at home and on the road. Did you know the Twins are worse at home than on the road?? Or how about that the Rangers and A’s are split at 6-6 so far this season?

Take a gander below and the current lay of the land:

AL Wild Card Watch Sept 22nd

Team Wins Losses home/away
Team Wins Losses home/away
Angels 76 76
Astros x3 1 2 away
White Sox x4 3 1 away
Mariners x3 2 1 home
Final Record 82 80
Twins 79 74
Tigers x3 1 2 away
Indians x3 1 2 away
Tigers x3 1 2 home
Final Record 82 80
Rangers 76 76
A's x3 2 1 away
Astros x3 1 2 home
A's x 4 2 2 home
Final Record 81 81

Is it still possible for the Angels to get a wild card spot? Yes. However, the most likely scenario they are shooting for right now is a tie with the Twins (and don’t forget those Rangers though they are only .500 agains the A’s this year). The Angels need to go 6-4 in their remaining games, while the Twins need to struggle at 3-6. The Twins DO have the Indians coming up and the Tribe could certainly do the Angels a favor by sweeping. The Tigers are also gonna have to pull off some wins which is the most unlikely of this scenario. Can the Tigers finish their last 6 Twinkie games going 4-2? Probably not, but they will need to - or at the very least go 3-3 if the Indians can sweep.

All this is still possible even if the Angels only take 1 game this weekend. But if the Angels get swept or the Twins sweep the Tigers, then it’s pretty much looking forward to next spring.

Anything less than going .500 these last 10 games and the Angels are probably done. Even winning 6 of 10 and the odds are not great.

The Math:

Angels go 5-5
Twins need to go 2-7

Angels go 6-4
Twins need to go 3-6

Angels go 7-3
Twins need to go 4-5

Angels go 8-2
Twins can go 5-4