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If Ryan Had Remained with the Angels, the 80s Would Have Turned Out Much Differently




At the end of the 1979 season, Angel starting pitcher Nolan Ryan became a free agent. He had just helped lead the Halos to their first ever first place finish, and he did well in his one start against the Orioles in the ALCS, lasting seven innings and giving up just one earned run to the Orange Birds. At this point in his career, he was a five-time All-Star and had just led the league in strikeouts for the seventh time in the past eight seasons. He was also now a free agent for the first time, and the consensus was that Ryan was going to become Major League Baseball's first million dollar a year player.

Unfortunately for the Angels, team general manager Buzzie Bavasi could not convince himself that it was wise to spend that much money on just one player, so he intended on letting Ryan sign elsewhere. Bavasi relieved himself from the stress of this terrible situation by infamously saying that Ryan would be easy to replace -- all he had to do was find two 7-win/8-loss pitchers (Ryan had gone 14-16 for the Angels in 1979).

Bavasi later freely admitted that not signing Ryan was the biggest mistake of his baseball career.

Ryan had wanted to stay with the Angels -- he loved owner Gene Autry, and he and his teammates Don Baylor, Bobby Grich, Brian Downing, and Rod Carew had some unfinished business to take care of, but it was clear that Bavasi didn't want him, so Ryan opted to sign with the Houston Astros instead, a team that was based much closer to his Texas home than the Angels were and was a team that was willing to give him a $4.5 million contract for four years, with an option for a fifth year at one million dollars.

Bavasi regretted losing Nolan Ryan to the Astros because the strikeout king would prove to be worth every penny of his new, record breaking contract, and if he had stayed in California, the Angels' experience in the 1980s would absolutely have been much richer. And by richer, I mean that in addition to making the playoffs in 1982 and 1986, the Angels assuredly would have made the playoffs in 1984 and 1985. That gives the Angels four playoff appearances in the 1980s, and the addition of Ryan would have practically guaranteed that the Angels would have made it to the World Series in 1982 while also improving their chances in the other three years.

Now, this difference would not have been noticed during the 1980 season. The team suffered terrible injuries to Brian Downing, Joe Rudi, and Don Baylor, and finished in 6th place with a meager 70 wins to their credit. Ryan would not have been enough, although he would have made them better. In reality, the Angels started the season with a rotation of Dave Frost, Bruce Kison, Don Aase, Chris Knapp, and Frank Tanana. If Ryan had been resigned, he would have been their number one starter, and in all likelihood, Aase would have started the year in the bullpen. Also, had the Angels had Ryan, they never would have added Freddie Martinez to their roster (he was a Rule 5 pick up in December of 1979 from the Mets who started 23 games for the Angels in 1980 and had a 4.52 ERA).

Ryan would have made the 1981 season a very interesting one for the Angels. This was the year the players went on strike in the middle of the season, cutting the year into two halves. If you came in first place in either the first or the second half, you got to play in a best-of-five divisional series that kicked the post season off that year. The Angels' best half was the first one, where they came in fourth place with 31 wins, but they were only six games behind the first place Oakland A's.

Could having Ryan have made up those six games? It would have been close. The starting rotation at the beginning of the season was Geoff Zahn, Jesse Jefferson, Mike Witt, Ken Forsch, and Bill Travers. If the Angels had Ryan on their roster, they would never have signed free agent Bill Travers in January of 1981 to fill in the fifth spot in their rotation, and that spot performed terribly in the first half of 1981. Travers went 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA. He was replaced by Doug Rau who went 1-2, and then by Dave Frost, who went 1-1. Those would have all been Ryan's games if he had been on the team, and in 1981 Ryan had a dominant 1.37 ERA in his eleven first half starts for the Astros.

If having Ryan could have given the Angels enough wins in the first half to overtake the A's, the Angels would have played the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS. The Halos would have had a great starting rotation for that series. Ryan had a 1.69 ERA that year, Ken Forsch had a great 2.88 ERA, Mike Witt was at 3.28 for the season, and Steve Renko had a 3.44 ERA. In the bullpen, the Angels had Don Aase and Bruce Kison who were having terrific years.

Offensively, this was the year Bobby Grich led the league in home runs. Dan Ford and Don Baylor were also mashing the ball around, and they had four guys who had an on-base percentage higher than .350 (Rod Carew, Bobby Grich, Rick Burleson, and Brian Downing).

Although Fred Lynn was hurt, and catcher Ed Ott and third baseman Butch Hobson weren't very productive, this was a team that could have done some damage.

The Angels improved upon their 1981 showing by putting up a pretty impressive 1982 season, coming in first place with 93 wins and facing the Milwaukee Brewers in the ALCS. The Angels lost that series three-games-to-two, but I am convinced that if they had Ryan on their roster, they would have won that series and advanced to their first World Series.

In real life, the Angels had a solid rotation except for the fifth spot. Geoff Zahn, Ken Forsch, Mike Witt, and Steve Renko held down the first four spots, but that darned fifth spot could have ruined things as the Angels were battling the Royals down the stretch for the divisional crown (like they often did). Angel Moreno, Bruce Kison, and Dave Goltz all gave it a try, and although Kison was effective, manager Gene Mauch wanted him in the bullpen. The Angels signed Luis Tiant and then traded for Tommy John during the second half of the season to start some games, and unlike Tiant, John did nicely, as the Angels went 5-2 in his seven starts.

Now, if Ryan had been on the team, they would have had a rotation of Ryan, Zahn, Forsch, Witt, and Renko, and that being the case, they probably would have dropped Angel Moreno from the roster at the completion of spring training, and they wouldn't have had a need to acquire Tiant or John, which really changes things because Tommy John started two of the games against the Brewers in the ALCS, winning Game One and losing Game Four.

Now, Tommy John had a good year in 1982, pitching to a 3.86 ERA, but Ryan had a much better season. He had a 3.16 ERA in 1981, and he was going strong during his last ten starts for the Astros, posting a 2.48 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 76.1 innings. If the Angels would have won Game Four, a game that John lost, the Angels would have won the clenching game of the series. The Angels lost that one 9-5, with John lasting 3.1 innings where he gave up four earned runs and struck out just one batter.

If Ryan is on the mound instead of John, the whole complexion of this game changes, and the Angels are likely on a plane to St. Louis afterwards to go face the Cardinals in the World Series.

The Angels suffered a big drop-off in the 1983 season, finishing in sixth place with just 75 wins, 29 games behind the first place Chicago White Sox. Even though Ryan had a sparkling 2.98 ERA that season for the Houston Astros, his addition to the Angel roster that year would not have helped them make the playoffs. He would have again held Tommy John's spot (John had a 4.33 ERA with an 11-13 record in 34 games).

That would not have been the case for the 1984 season, however, since having Ryan on the roster that year instead of John would have guaranteed the Angels a spot in the playoffs. The Angels finished in second place to the Royals that year with only three wins separating the two teams in the standings. Tommy John was third on the pitching staff in starts, and he dragged a 4.52 ERA with him to the end of the season. Ryan had a much better year, posting a 3.04 ERA with a crazy good 1.15 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. The Angels would have easily surpassed the Royals for the top spot in the division had Ryan been starting all of John's games.

In the ALCS, they would have faced the Detroit Tigers. In real life, Detroit swept the Royals in the ALCS, and then they beat the Padres 4-1 in the World Series. They had Jack Morris in the rotation and Willie Hernandez, who won both the Cy Young and MVP awards for his domination that year, in the bullpen. The Tigers did not have any easy outs in a line up that was anchored by huge years from Kirk Gibson, Alan Trammell, and Chet Lemon.

The Angels would have had a difficult time with this team. The Halos' best three starting pitchers to face them would have been Ryan (3.04 ERA), Geoff Zahn (3.12), and Mike Witt (3.47), which is looking pretty promising, but the Angel bullpen was not nearly as good as the Tiger pen. The Angels did have four batters in their lineup hit more than 20 home runs that season (Doug DeCinces, Brian Downing, Fred Lynn, and Reggie Jackson) whereas the Tigers only had three. The Tigers, though, had six regulars with an on-base percentage greater than .350 while the Angels only had four (Rod Carew, Bobby Grich, Downing, and Lynn).

The Angels did have a great defensive team that year with Dick Schofield at shortstop, Gary Pettis in center field, Bob Boone behind the plate, and Grich and DeCinces also in the mix. Unfortunately though, Boone (41 OPS+) and Schofield (48) were easy outs in the batting lineup.

I get the feeling that the Angels would have put up a good fight, but probably would have come up just short against this great Tigers team.

The 1985 season was another successful one for the Angels. They won 90 games and finished in second place, just one game back of the divisional winner Kansas City Royals. If having Ryan could have netted them two extra wins, the Angels could have stolen that year's AL West title, and it is not hard to see how that could have happened.

At the beginning of the season, the Angels had a starting rotation of Mike Witt, Geoff Zahn, Jim Slaton, Tommy John, and Ron Romanick. After getting off to a great four-game start with a 1.48 ERA, Zahn injured his shoulder and was replaced for most of the rest of the year by Kirk McCaskill. The Angels, however, didn't have a reliable in house replacement for Tommy John, whom the team released on June 19th after he had posted a 4.52 ERA, so they made a terrific trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 2nd wherein they acquired starting pitcher John Candelaria and outfielder George Hendrick. The only other important pitching change for the Angels that year was moving starter Jim Slaton over to the bullpen after they had acquired Don Sutton in a trade with the Oakland A's on September 10th.

Now remember that if the Angels had Ryan all along, Tommy John would not have been on the roster, so with Ryan in the rotation, it is likely that the Angels still would have made the trade for Candelaria on August 2nd, but instead of replacing Tommy John, the Candyman's arrival would have instead moved Jim Slaton to the bullpen. On July 25th, Slaton had a subpar 4.31 ERA and the Angels had lost 11 of his last 12 starts, so it is easy to see the need for Candelaria.

What probably wouldn't have happened was the trade for Don Sutton since the Angels would have already had a full rotation of Ryan, Witt, Candelaria, Romanick, and McCaskill. That means that Ryan would have had to pick up two victories in games that were actually started by Tommy John, Urbano Lugo, Don Sutton, and Jim Slaton. Ryan had a down year for someone of his track record, finishing 1985 with a 3.80 ERA, but that was still better than the ERAs of John (4.52), Lugo (4.40 in 10 starts), and Slaton (4.37), although it was slightly higher than Sutton's 3.69.

In other words, the Angels should have easily picked up two extra wins to give them 92 on the season and make it to the playoffs once again.

Their foes in this ALCS would have been the Toronto Blue Jays, and the two teams matched up pretty well. The Angels would throw out Ryan (3.80 ERA), Witt (3.56), and Candelaria (3.80) against Doyle Alexander (3.45), Jimmy Key (3.00), and Dave Stieb (2.48).

Both teams had an excellent bullpen. Donnie Moore and his 1.09 WHIP led the Angel relief corps, while Tom Henke (0.93) was the leader in the Blue Bird pen.

Offensively, the Angels once again had four players with twenty or more homers (DeCinces, Downing, Reggie Jackson, and Ruppert Jones) while the Blue Jays only had two, and the Halos had four with an OBP greater than .350 (Carew, Grich, Downing, Jackson) while Toronto only had three.

The Angel defense that year was outstanding. They led the majors in double plays turned (202), and they led the AL in fielding percentage (.982). This was mainly due to their outstanding defense up the middle with Boone, Schofield, Grich, and Pettis.

Boone and Schofield were pretty easy outs in the Angel lineup that year, but OF Juan Beniquez (114 OPS+) and C/1B Daryl Sconiers (119) were having excellent seasons for the Angels off of the bench.

On paper, there doesn't seem to be a clear favorite in this imaginary ALCS.

And then there is the infamous 1986 ALCS between the Angels and the Red Sox. If only Nolan Ryan had been on the Angel roster for this match up, the victory champagne might have been sprayed all over the Angel clubhouse instead of Boston's.

As those of you old enough clearly remember, this series went the full seven games. The starting pitching rotation Angel manager Gene Mauch used was Mike Witt (win), Kirk McCaskill (loss), John Candelaria (win), Don Sutton (win), Witt (loss), McCaskill (loss), and Candelaria (loss). As I established earlier, Sutton would have been the odd man out if Ryan had remained an Angel in the 1980s, and the pitching rotation for this series in that case would probably have been Witt, Ryan, McCaskill, Candelaria, Witt, Ryan, and Candelaria. In this revised history, for the Angels to go on to the World Series, Ryan would have needed to win both of his games. The Express posted a 3.34 ERA and a typically great 9.8 K/9 in 1986. These numbers are better than those of Sutton and McCaskill, but more importantly, Ryan was red hot during his last ten games of the season, posting a 2.31 ERA as the season winded down.

But could he have beaten the Red Sox twice? The Astros made the playoffs that year, and Ryan pitched twice in the NLCS against the Mets. In his first outing, Ryan did not get the results he wanted, going five innings while giving up five earned runs and striking out five. His second game of this series, however, featured the type of Ryan results we all come to expect -- he went nine innings while giving up just one earned run and striking out twelve.

Based on these performances, the odds are against Ryan winning both of his starts in this imaginary ALCS, but then the odds turn quickly back in Ryan's favor when you look at how poorly the men on Boston's playoff roster hit against Ryan during their careers (thank you Baseball-Reference for your incredible, sortable databases). Of the ten Red Sox who had nine or more at bats in the real 1986 ALCS, these men hit a combined .141 in their careers against Ryan. The only Red Sox to have a lifetime batting average above .200 against Ryan was Wade Boggs, who hit him at a .286 clip, so who knows? Maybe Ryan could have handled these Bean-eaters twice in this series after all.

This was, however, the last time that Ryan could have helped the Angels in the playoffs, though. This is not because Ryan didn't have any more great seasons left in him, he surely did, but it is because the Angels never won enough games in the regular seasons after 1986 to have had a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, even had Ryan been on their roster.

What a sweetly stinging exercise this has been.

Baseball in the 1980s surely would have been different had Buzzie Bavasi not been so averse to giving the great Nolan Ryan the contract he had earned. Instead of the Halos making the playoffs twice, had Ryan remained, they would have had an excellent shot to make the post season in 1984 and in 1984, and they would have had a legitimate shot at it in 1981.

If you give the Angels five ALCS appearances in six years with Ryan on the team, it seems likely that they would have made multiple World Series appearances in this decade and perhaps even won one of them.

If Ryan had remained an Angel, though, it is highly likely that the Kansas City Royals would not have won their World Series title in 1985 since the Halos would have taken the division title away from them.

There is also a decent chance that the Angels would have been the American League team to advance to the 1986 World Series, and in that case, Bill Buckner would have been spared the indignity of the Mookie Wilson ground ball that went through his legs.

Give Ryan all of these extra years and playoff experiences with the Angels, and there would be a bronze plaque of him hanging up in the Hall of Fame, his likeness immortalized with an Angel cap upon his head.

Heck, give Bobby Grich all of those extra appearances in the playoffs, and perhaps he could have come up with one of those iconic moments of heroism that could have stayed with the voters, and then maybe we would have Morris, Trammell, and Grich all heading to Cooperstown this summer.

This FanPost is authored by an independent fan. Tell us what you think and how you feel.

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