Over/Under: Mike Trout Home Runs 39.5

The sound of ball hitting bat in Tempe can only mean one thing: a new season of baseball is upon us. And as baseball fans the Spring air brings about a certain wish fullness and optimism; a curiosity about how the next six months will unfold.

And predictions. Predictions every where. Until now, our predictions have been tucked away in comments threads. No more. Welcome to our new series on Halos Heaven, Over/Under, where we will pick statistical possibilities to discuss, gather our predictions, and look back at the end of the year to see if we were dead on, in the ballpark, or full of crap.

So, let’s start with an easy topic to debate: Will Mike Trout hit over or under 39.5 home runs in 2018?

Why He Will: he’s Mike Freaking Trout and has eclipsed the 40 HR once, in 2015. Last year he was on pace to eclipse 40 HR before missing six weeks due to a thumb injury. Add in a juiced baseball and lower right field fence, and Trout has it in the bag.

Why He Won’t: As great as Trout is, he has only topped 40 HR once in a season. His 162 game average for his career is 35 and there’s no guarantee the juiced balls from 2017 will be in play in 2018. Plus, there is always the possibility of an injury.

So what do you say?