Over/Under: Garrett Richards IP 149.5

A huge story going into the 2018 season is the Angels pioneering use of a 6 man rotation. The goal, of course, is to keep a pitching staff riddled with injuries in 2016 and 2017 in tact while making Shoei Otani’s transition to the MLB as comfortable as possible.

Stirrups has done a great job of breaking down various ways that might be implemented. While I encourage each of you to read his breakdowns, let’s use the most basic of math for this short post: 162 games divided among 6 starters is an average of 27 stats each. If Richards were to make all 27 and go 6 innings each, he would throw 162 innings.

Will he, then eclipse 150 innings pitched during the regular season?

Why He Will: Richards is finally healthy after combining for just over 60 innings the last two years. In the three previous years he averaged 172 IP per year. In any flex arrangement of the staff, he’ll get at least 27 starts. Plus, he’s in the last year of his contract so if we break him, we no longer have to own him.

Why He Won’t: he pitched a whopping 27 innings last year. Regular off season training or not, 150 would be a 600% year to year increase. If an extension is signed or discussed, the Angels will worry more about long term production.

What are your thoughts?