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This is just an observation coming from a dude who casts a huge drag net over the world of baseball news nearly every day (yeah, I read all weekend too so that I have an accumulation for Mondays).
As we near Spring Training, I am finding more and more interest in the potential impact of Shohei Ohtani. There is a lot of curiosity and it is growing. And I am not even trying to read any news out of Japan.
I’m not going to suggest that Mike Trout has anything to worry about. But the totality of the media crush might warrant some form of pool contest. Something like ‘how many press credentials get issued for Tempe?’ and ‘how many press credentials get issued for Ohtani’s first game?’ Or ‘blah blah blah first pitching start?’
At some point somebody is going to make mention of a number. What’s your over/under guess? 40? 75? 130? What?
Have some One Week-To-Media-Explosion-Offseason-Links:
A Little Bit of Angels News
Here is some good data to assist in figuring out the impact of a 6-man rotation to support Shohei Ohtani. A lot of it concerns the risk factor of injury, both how things have been going for LAA and how things go for Japanese pitchers...........
And then there are the 2018 projections for Ohtani. 11 wins would be OK, but 11 wins and home many home runs??............
Some actual scouting grades for Ohtani. Enough to make you drool..........
FanGraphs puts up their Top 100 Prospects, and LAA comes in at #1, #66 and #69. Taylor Ward where art thou?...........
Everywhere In Baseball
This is a fair assessment, even if some of the phrasing is misleading. Teams already have an incentive to win. What they lack is the proper disincentive against losing. Scott Boras has some cool ideas to throw into the dialogue (and another link here), even if I disagree with his presumption that there should be no limit to the cost of winning in a competitive system where total wins are a zero-sum situation. (The total number of wins when you add up all the wins of all the teams will never vary if all teams play the same 162 games and there are no ties.)...........
Baseball America goes at the tank situation even harder, defining for us a “tank tax”. Basically, any teams that fail to win at least X number of games get moved down the draft order Y number of slots. Clever, inasmuch as it takes them out of the prime 1st round region for high-payoff prospects. But what if the team is the Mets, and they fail to win due to reason not associated with tanking? Isn’t the draft slotting there to protect them?.........
Let’s get REAL radical. Since the MLBPA has only just recently signed the CBA that is turning into a death spiral of unintended consequences, maybe the way out for the union is to dissolve the union and wipe out the contract?............
Just a PSA bookmark for you, so that you can keep up on all the reporting dates for MLB ST..........
This is the kind of story that breaks our narrative of the cold stove. The Mets are NOT a tanking team, and they DO have money, and they DO a quality core around with to work, and working that core could make them a contender. recall that they were in the World Series just 3 seasons ago, and the playoffs just 2 seasons ago. Last year was just a hot mess. So why are they not trying to sustain the window they are within?.........
I’d normally not care too much about the announcement of Aaron Boone’s coaching staff with the MFY, except that this announcement includes parking Reggie Willits as his first base coach..........
This is why Center Field is considered a premium position..........
I dunno. I am starting to think that the Joe Maddon rah-rah thing has run its course..........
Hot Stove
There is an interesting dynamic in the market where the Nationals inaction is creating an impact on moves made by the Marlins. J.T. Realmuto wants out of Miami. The Nats could use an upgrade at catcher, but they dominate their division anyway. So the Nats are not inclined to give up a lot for Realmuto, dragging out negotiations and tying up the Marlins. Dayn Perry, though, sees the Nats as having only 1 more shot at a ring, that being 2018 before their core hits the Free Agent market in October. he thinks they do need to be urgent.........
The Astros signed George Springer, their The-Next-Guy-To-Knock-Off-Mike-Trout, to a 2-year deal worth $12 million each. That makes for one hell of a playoff bonus. Both sides avoid arbitration where, oddly enough, neither side asked for that much money.........
The Yankees are explaining to the Moustakas camp that they don’t want to sign him because they still need money to sign another starter and also to have room to trade in mid-season. In other words, for good reasons...........
Todd Frazier, who MLBTR originally projected to sign with the Mets for 3 years, $33MM ($11MM AAV), signed with the Mets after all. For 2 years, $17MM ($8.5MM AAV). Before you start wondering, Frazier is 31 years old, and hit .213/.344/.428 last year, coming in with a 3.4 bWAR. He is in slight decline since his peak season of 2014, as one would expect for a 31-year old...........This Makes Frazier another market “victim”. Which, in a way, he is. It’s a shitty time to be a Free Agent 3B. Not a lot of teams need one, and there are these guys named Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado (maybe even Nolan Arenado, too) just months away from coming free from their current gigs...........
The Duffle Bag
Trevor Bauer apparently has some doppelganger playing Major League Baseball.......Nice grab of an early report on the up-and-coming Henry Aaron. (h/t HighHeatStats)..........Also from HHS, this factoid about Bartolo Colon and his new teammates is great..........Here we go. As predicted, the world is full of knuckleheads who are misreading the actual change and think that Chief Wahoo is suddenly a rare thing, wishing to cash in............Go to work for Jerry Dipoto writing software for him so that he can figure out what trade to make every day..........
OT: Amazon pulls a cute little trick during the Super Bowl, hacking their Echos via their commercials so that they are not hacking their Echos during the commercials..........