Over/Under: Shoemaker ERA+ 99.5

Matt Shoemaker has gone from undrafted to fan favorite over the course of his career. At his best, he is a sinkerball machine who creates wormburners and outs. When that sinker isn’t sinking, however, it tends to get hit hard.

For those unfamiliar with ERA+, it is a statistic that is adjusted for ballpark and league with 100 being an average performance. In this case being above 100 is a good thing and being below is a bad one.

In Shoemaker’s breakout 2014 season he hit a high of 118 (18% better than average). He was last above average (103) in 2016. The odd numbered years, however, have not been so kind. For his career, Shoemaker sits at an even 100.

Back to full health after an injury shortened 2017, the question is whether Shoey will be better or worse than the league average pitcher.

Why He Will: It is an even numbered year (hey, the Giants use it) and the Angels should have an elite infield defense. If Shoey gets a ground ball, Simba, Cozart, and Kinsler will get an out. Plus, he’s back to health and should get more rest with a 6 man rotation.

Why He Won’t: He hasn’t in 2 of the last 3 years. The injury bug seems to be catching up with him and he’s on the wrong side of 30. His WHIP has increased just a tad in all but one year and his HR/9 rate of 1.7 last year is scary with a juiced ball and shorter right field wall.