Over/Under: Mike Trout 9.45 WAR

Simply typing that headline shows how incredible of a talent Mike Trout is. Debating whether a player will have a WAR over 9.5 would be ludicrous in most cases. But it isn’t when the player in question has already eclipsed that figure twice and come within a hair’s breadth of reaching it a third.

Now entering what is typically considered his prime years, will Mike Trout eclipse 9.45 WAR in 2018?

*Note: for this exercise I am using baseball-reference’s WAR calculations, which is why the link on Trout’s name leads to his bb-ref page.

Why He Will: Trout has already racked up two seasons of 10.5, another of 9.4, and a third at 9.0. In short, barring injury 9.5 WAR can pretty much be expected of him. He’s the best player on the planet, he’s 26 years old, and he’s about ready to really hit his prime.

Why He Won’t: defensive metrics have soured on him and that shouldn’t change as he gets a bit heavier and loses a step. Plus, with power being so prevalent throughout the game 40 HR doesn’t mean what it did a few years ago. I won’t even type the most logical reason, but you all know what it is.