Over/Under: Justin Upton WAR 3.45

WAR, what is it good for? Oversimplifying a player’s overall value. For several years, left field in Anaheim was a place WAR went to die. The team trotted out replacement level and sub replacement level players for years, while paying big time money to a guy who was no longer an Angel.

But that should not be the case in 2018 as Justin Upton will patrol left field for the Angels. MLB Network recently ranked Upton as one of the top left fielders in baseball and he is fresh off a great 5.5 WAR.

For his 11 year career Upton owns 34.2 WAR and has several seasons above 3.45 WAR and a few below. Will he better that number in 2018?

Why He Will: while it seems like Justin has been playing forever, he’s still only 29. Even with expected regression 3.5 WAR is very much on the table. His bat played well in Anaheim last year and his defense should remain solid.

Why He Won’t: after each of his other standout years he’s had a significant drop in WAR. 6.1 in 2011 was followed by 2.5 in 2012. 4.4 in 2015 by 2 in 2016. Plus, these are the Angels and our left field seems cursed. With offense on the rise across MLB, the standard for “replacement level” could rise a bit, which would eat into his WAR.