On Friday night, Albert Pujols reached a huge milestone. Rarified air. But he is not done. Pick on his long contract and decline all you want, but Pujols is still racking up hits, home runs, RBIs, etc, AND like it or not, he has 3 more years left on his contract after this season concludes. What’s going to happen over the remained of 2018 and beyond? How high can Pujols climb and what will his final stats look like?
Below are Pujols’ stats over the past 4 years as well as current stats for 2018. The 2018 pace stats are what his season will look like if he keeps up on his current pace. I added a 2018 adjusted row to give a more realistic version or what his final 2018 stats may look like.
Albert Pujols Stats
Given Pujols’ age and 25% per year decline with a decline in batting average per year, we can look at some of the number Pujols MIGHT put up by the time he reached the end of his career and they look something like this:
Hits = 3,346
Homeruns = 697
RBIs = 2210
Doubles = 675
That best case scenario with hits would put him at 10th overall, just ahead of Paul Molitor (3,319). Home runs may not happen, but it’s possible Pujols could top Alex Rodriguez (696) for 4th all time, but it’s likely he will end up in 5th place, bumping Willie Mays (660). Pujols only needs 41 more home runs in 3 1⁄2 seasons to end up 5th on the all time list.
RBIs are pretty intriguing since a best case scenario MIGHT bump Pujols above Babe Ruth (2,214) for 2nd on the all time list. However, Pujols should land at least #3 on the list, bumping down AFraud (2086), as he only needs 149 more RBIs to accomplish that feat.
Pujols isn’t exactly a doubles machine anymore, but he is still hitting them and currently sits at #11 on the list with 626. The best case scenario may be 675 doubles which amounts to 49 more over 3.5 seasons. That total would land him at #5 on the list all time for doubles, just ahead of Craig Biggio (668).
So here is what we have:
Even sliding a few spots on those lists puts Pujols in extremely rarified air. The only steroid free people to end up ahead of Pujols on the all time HR list include just Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. That’s some pretty good company, AND only Hank Aaron has achieve 600+ HRs and 3000+ hits, which ALREADY means Pujols is the 2ND person in history to reach that milestone drug free.
Of course there are a lot of assumptions here on the amount of production Pujols has left in him. We could see a precipitous drop from 2018 to 2019. We could even see one later this year. OR, he could hit 30 home runs again in 2018 and 25 more in 2019. He’s certainly not the powerhouse he once was, but he’s still producing AND he’s surrounded by a pretty potent lineup (most days). Is he worth 30 million a year? Nope. But he’s an all time great and adding to those all time numbers every time he steps on the field.