Series Preview: Blue Jays @ Angels (Battle of thirds)

Angels 39-35
Blue Jays 34-39

It’s a little bit confusing that the Blue Jays, an under .500 swept the Nationals last week but were swept by the Rays in the series before that. Most recently they split a 2 game set with the Braves. They’ve been up and down for sure. These two teams face almost exactly on month ago and the Angels took that series 2 games to 1 with a score of 16-10 overall.

The Angels, well, they have lost 7 of their last 9 games but are still hanging in 4 games above .500. The offense has had a bit more jolt as of late with 32 runs scored over their past 6 games - an improvement for sure.

Know your foe:

Blue Jays - who’s hot (last 7 days):

Devon Travis .389 AVG, 2 home runs
Kendrys Morales .412 OBP, 1 home run
Yangervis Solarte .429 OBP, 3 home runs
Randal Grichuk .438 OBP, 2 home runs

Weather Forecast

GAME 1

Tyler Skaggs (2.81 ERA) v. Aaron Sanchez (4.35 ERA)
Thursday, June 21st @ 7:07PM

Pitcher vs. Batters

Notable Stats

Summary:

Skaggs faced Sanchez back in May and came away with a no decision. He allowed 3 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings. Skaggs has looked really good over his past 3 starts with only 1 run allowed in 20 innings.

Pitch Arsenal:

Sanchez allowed only 2 Angel hits over 5 scoreless last month. Over his past 3 starts he’s given up 6 runs in 18.1 innings. He’s been okay this year, but has certainly had some bumpy starts - just not against Angels.

Pitch Arsenal:

Verdict: Given the results last time around, the Angels will need some of that recent mojo at the plate to get to Sanchez.

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GAME 2

John Lamb (3.44 ERA in AAA) v. Marco Estrada (4.66 ERA)
Friday, June 22nd @ 7:07PM

Pitcher vs. Batters

Notable Stats

Summary:

John Lamb pitched his first major league game since 2016 last week and it was a good one. he only threw 5 innings but gave up just 2 runs (both homers) on 3 hits.

Pitch Arsenal:

In May, Estrada was beat up by the Angels to the tune of 7 hits and 4 runs over 4.1 innings. Over his past 3 games he’s allowed 3 runs on 13 hits in 18.2 innings.

Pitch Arsenal:

Verdict: Estrada has been good lately, but the Angels did get to him last time around so hopefully they have more of that in the tank.

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GAME 3

Andrew Heaney (3.64 ERA) v. Marcus Stroman (7.71 ERA)
Saturday, June 23rd @ 6:07PM

Pitcher vs. Batters

Notable Stats

Summary:

Heaney’s June started off amazing with that complete game shutout on his birthday, but in his last 2 starts he has a 6.54 ERA with 4 home runs allowed. Hoping for some more consistency out of this dude to finish out the month.

Pitch Arsenal:

Marcus Stroman is coming off a rehab assignment and a 75 pitch simulated game Monday (because his last rehab start was rained out). He’s been out since May 8th with a shoulder issue and was hit around A LOT over his first 7 starts with 32 runs allowed over 37.1 innings.

Pitch Arsenal:

Verdict: This matchup certainly favors the Angels, especially if Heaney is back on track.

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GAME 4

Jaime Barria (3.57 ERA) v. Jaime Garcia (6.16 ERA)
Sunday, June 24th @ 1:07PM

Pitcher vs. Batters

Notable Stats

Summary:

Jaime Barria gets the job done, despite being hit hard 38% of the time and only a 16% soft contact rate. He’s good at missing bats though, thanks in large part to the 19% whiff rate on his slider and 18% whiff rate on his changeup. Not elite numbers, but certainly GOOD numbers. Arizona found a way to hit him last time out for the worst start of his season, allowing 6 runs over 4 innings.

Pitch Arsenal:

Garcia shut out the Angels over 7 innings last year but hasn’t faced them yet in 2018. He hasn’t been real sharp this year and over his 4 starts in the month of June he has a 8.29 ERA.

Pitch Arsenal:

Verdict: I predict Jaime will pitch better than Jaime in this one.

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Overall Verdict: If you are playing the odds, the Angels have home field advantage (is there such a thing this year?) as well as pretty favorable pitching matchups. FiveThirtyEight’s model has the Angels as clear winners with the closest game being #2. I’m not seeing a sweep here, but I do think game 2 might be the toughest challenge.

Current Standings