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Extra, extra! A new, improved offensive stat

Despite the walkoff homer, Ward's offense wasn't that good. - Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports


I was driven to create this new stat due to my inability to accept convoluted and incomplete stats like oWAR and wRC as the gold standard for a player's offensive value.

So what I did was create the grand-unification, the great catch-all stat that provides one numeric value for all of the positive things a baseball player can do while on offense to help his team win the game.

I humbly give you, Total Bases Created.

Here's How It Works

Every time a batter reaches first base via a hit, walk, hit-by-pitch, or error, that counts as one base created. A solo home run counts as four bases created.

A batter also creates a base every time he moves a runner over. If he hits a single with a man on first base, and the runner moves all the way over to third base safely, then the batter has just created three bases -- one for the single and two for moving the runner over two bases. If a batter hits a two-run homer that scores a runner from second base, he has just created six bases -- four for the home run and two for moving the runner on second up two stations.

If a batter makes an out but moves a runner over, the batter gets credit for creating a base. This is what I love about this new stat -- productive outs are an important part of the game, and they are represented in this all-inclusive stat, so if you lay down a sacrifice bunt that moves a runner over one base, or if you hit a sacrifice fly that scores the runner from third, you have created a base, even though you made an out.

Additionally, if you steal a base or advance on a wild pitch, you have created a base.

On the flip-side, you can also have bases deducted from your TBC total if you get caught stealing, are picked off, or hit into a double play.

How Did the 2018 Angels Do, as Far as Total Bases Created is Concerned?

That's what I intended to find out, so when I watched the games last year, instead of keeping traditional score, I kept track of every Angel player's TBC, and I admit that in a few cases, I had to be judicial. Like for instance, if, say, David Fletcher hit a sharp grounder to the opposing third baseman and an Angel runner got thrown out at home plate because the stupid contact play was on, I did not subtract TBCs. And one time, I granted Michael Hermosillo one TBC when he purposefully got himself caught up in a run-down which allowed the runner on third base to score.

So Here Are the Total Bases Created for Each Angel Player for the Year:

  1. 631 Mike Trout
  2. 547 Justin Upton
  3. 497 Andrelton Simmons
  4. 388 Albert Pujols
  5. 385 Kole Calhoun
  6. 377 Shohei Ohtani
  7. 259 Ian Kinsler
  8. 226 David Fletcher
  9. 195 Martin Maldonado
  10. 182 Luis Valbuena
  11. 158 Zack Cozart
  12. 140 Jefry Marte
  13. 98 Taylor Ward
  14. 93 Jose Fernandez
  15. 90 Francisco Arcia
  16. 86 Jose Briceno
  17. 71 Eric Young Jr.
  18. 64 Kaleb Cowart
  19. 53 Chris Young
  20. 32 Rene Rivera
  21. 31 Michael Hermosillo
  22. 15 Jabari Blash
  23. 10 Ryan Schimpf
  24. 6 Nolan Fontana
  25. 5 Joe Hudson
  26. 2 Juan Graterol
  27. 2 Andrew Heaney
  28. 2 Sherman Johnson

No real surprises here. Maybe, with all the love that Trout/Ohtani/Simmons receive on a regular basis, you had forgotten how valuable Upton really is to the Angel offense, or maybe Pujols and Ward look a little more valuable on this list than you would have expected because of their OPS problems last year, but these two gave the team a lot of productive outs in 2018.

Now Let's Look at the Good Stuff, Total Bases Created per Plate Appearance

Note that I put the number of plate appearances in parenthesis, to keep things in perspective.

  1. 2.000 Graterol (1)
  2. 1.429 Schimpf (7)
  3. 1.038 Trout (608)
  4. 1.027 Ohtani (367)
  5. 0.892 Upton (613)
  6. 0.849 Arcia (106)
  7. 0.828 Simmons (497)
  8. 0.779 Pujols (388)
  9. 0.756 JM Fernandez (123)
  10. 0.736 Fletcher (307)
  11. 0.697 Calhoun (385)
  12. 0.695 Chris Young (128)
  13. 0.672 Maldonado (290)
  14. 0.672 Briceno (128)
  15. 0.670 Marte (209)
  16. 0.667 Ward (147)
  17. 0.662 Kinsler (391)
  18. 0.632 Valbuena (288)
  19. 0.625 Cozart (253)
  20. 0.607 EYJ (117)
  21. 0.516 Cowart (124)
  22. 0.500 Hermosillo (62)
  23. 0.500 Fontana (12)
  24. 0.417 Hudson (12)
  25. 0.368 Rivera (87)
  26. 0.333 Blash (45)
  27. 0.250 Heaney (8)
  28. 0.182 Sherman Johnson (11)
Obviously the first two are the beneficiaries of their small sample size, but look at how close Ohtani and Trout are. Trout assumedly put up a Hall-of-Fame-legend-sized TBC/PA, but Ohtani was right up there with him, just the tiniest margin behind him. Seeing this makes me even more excited for an entire 2019's worth of Ohtani's bat in the everyday lineup.

It looks like Arcia and Fernandez were quite valuable offensively last year.

If Calhoun sucked offensively for half of the season and was great for half of the season, I wonder if that puts him around league average. If it does, that means that Pujols, Fernandez, and Fletcher were above average, offensively, so maybe we overlooked Fernandez's contribution and have been too harsh on Albert. Pujols obviously has his deficits, but moving runners over is not one of them. If there is a man on second or third and Pujols has two strikes on him, he will shorten up his swing and take advantage of the RBI opportunity in front of him, going against the faulty philosophy of the modern baseball batsmen who always operate in home run mode, no matter the count or situation.

And then look at Ward, who slotted one spot higher than Kinsler on this list. Kinsler was on fire for the few weeks leading up to his trade to Boston, yet Ward had a higher TBC per plate appearance, due to his ability to make productive outs, which are an important part of the game.

Heaney was the only pitcher I included on this list because he was the only Angel pitcher to create any bases last year.

How Many Times Were You the Team Leader in TBC for a Series?

With Trout being the greatest player in all of baseball, how often do you think he led his own team in TBC in a series? Ninety percent of the time? Half of the time?

The following list shows just how valuable one incredibly great player can be for his team, offensively speaking:
  1. 13 times, Trout
  2. 10 times, Upton
  3. 8 times, Simmons
  4. 5 times, Ohtani
  5. 4 times, Kinsler
  6. 4 times, Pujols
  7. 3 times, Fletcher
  8. 3 times, Calhoun
  9. 2 times, Ward
  10. 1 time, Cozart
  11. 1 time, Arcia
  12. 1 time, Fernandez
  13. 1 time, Cowart
  14. 1 time, Marte
So Trout led the team in TBC for a series about twenty percent of the time. I dearly wish I had TBC stats for the rest of the league to see how Trout compares, but my doctor told me to just stick with the Angels.

It was hard for Ohtani to lead the team for a series since he wasn't an everyday player, making his total of leading the team five times even more impressive.

Cowart led all of the Angels in TBC for one series last year? Lest you forget, Cowart's pattern the last couple of years was to have one or two hot weeks at the bat tucked away somewhere in the season. He led the team in TBC in a three-game, mid-September series against Oakland when he had a triple and a homer, and put the ball in play in nine of his 11 PAs.

And Now for Those of You Still With Me, One Final List

Here is each player's series high in TBC:
  1. 37, Trout vs. CHW July 23-26
  2. 27, Upton vs. OAK April 6-8
  3. 25, Ohtani vs. CHW September 7-9
  4. 24, Simmons vs. BAL May 1-3
  5. 23, Pujols vs. SEA July 11-13
  6. 22, Cozart vs. OAK March 29-April 1
  7. 22, Kinsler vs. DET May 28-31 and vs. SEA July 27-29
  8. 21, Calhoun vs. HOU August 30-September 2
  9. 20, Maldonado vs. TEX April 9-11
  10. 20, Arcia vs. SEA July 27-29
  11. 19, Fletcher vs. CHW July 23-26
  12. 18, Valbuena vs. DET May 28-31
  13. 17, Chris Young vs. OAK June 15-17
  14. 17, Cowart vs. DET August 6-8
  15. 15, JM Fernandez vs. TEX September 10-12
  16. 14, EYJ vs. TEX August 16-19
  17. 13, Marte vs. OAK September 28-30
  18. 13, Ward vs. OAK September 28-30
  19. 10, Briceno vs. NYY May 25-27
  20. 9, Rivera vs. CLE April 2-4
  21. 7, Schimpf vs. OAK April 6-8
  22. 6, Blash vs. TEX September 4-5
  23. 5, Hermosillo vs. KCR June 4-6
  24. 4, Fontana vs. SEA June 11-13
  25. 2, Graterol vs. SEA May 4-6
  26. 2, Heaney vs. LAD July 13-15
  27. 2, Hudson vs. CHW September 7-9 and vs. OAK September 28-30
  28. 1, Sherman Johnson vs. HOU 21-23
Once again demonstrating the impressive gap between Mike Trout and the rest of the baseball playing humans.

Plans For the 2019 Season

I would love to have TBC stats for every player in the league, or even for every player in the AL West, so I could create a league or division average, but I don't have the time for all of that. I will probably be interested in keeping track of Angel TBC in 2019, but this time I will also separate the stats in order to calculate a player's TBC with the bases empty and with runners on base.

Why I Am Frustrated with All the Love for wRC+

Here is the formula for calculating weighted Runs Created Plus:

wRC+ = (wRAA/PA + LgR/PA) + (LgR/PA - (Park Factor x LgR/PA)) divided by AL or NL wRC/PA - All Pitchers' PA Multiplied by 100

But wait, how do you calculate weighted Runs Above Average?

Here it is:

wRAA = wOBA - Lg wOBA divided by the wOBA Scale multiplied by Plate Appearances

Oh, okay, but how do you get weighted On-Base Average?

Here is the formula, but remember that the multipliers can change in value from year to year:

wOBA = .69 x unintentional base on balls + .72 x HBP + .89 x 1B + 1.27 x 2B + 1.62 x 3B + 2.10 x HR divided by AB + BB - IBB + SF + HBP

And don't forget about the Park Factor and the sliding wOBA Scale, however those are figured out, since they are required for determining an individual player's wRC+.

In Conclusion

Even with this enormous mountain of factors to consider, wRC+ still does not take into account stolen bases, reaching base safely on an error, or productive outs, which is why I prefer Total Bases Created.

TBC takes into account a player's entire offensive production, and it does it in a simple way.

One base advanced is one base advanced, which is, of course, the nature of the game -- advance enough bases, and you score a run; score enough runs, and you win the game.


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