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THE HOT CORNER
Welp, here we are. Big Money being tossed out for Big Names and the men are separating themselves from the boys. The Nationals took that 7 x $245MM offer rumored to be the high water mark from the Yankees to Gerrit Cole, and re-signed Stephen Strasburg at that level.
The Nats now have $595 million in their rotation, at an AAV of $95.2MM, and the Juan Soto contract is coming. (Which makes my chuckle at Scott Boras insisting that the Nats can still afford Anthony Rendon, too.)
But there you are. Strasburg is older than Cole. Strasburg has had a history of injuries far more than Cole. And Strasburg has not been as dominant as Cole. In terms of comps, which is the world of Scott Boras, 7 x $245MM is not even Cole’s floor.
Our expectation for Cole should now be closer to 8 x $300MM. That sounds like a lot of money, a handicapping amount of money, possibly a fatal amount of money depending on the balance of the roster and the state of a farm system.
But relax about that. It always feel that way. Every year we think about new contracts from the perspective of living among the production level of current players who are getting paid money at market rates from 3 - 4 years earlier. Those are not the correct comps. And this year, since we have gone through a couple years of reset with a couple of years of shallow, if not outright shitty, FA classes the 2019 numbers are destined to feel somewhat shocking.
Strasburg is real. Cole is real. Walking away from their market because it feels out of place against the money that a Blake Snell is earning is a losers reaction. And, yeah, the Halos are more than only 1 lock down starting pitcher away from being a playoff team, but on that list of what is needed is at least 1 lock down starting pitcher.
There are still guys on the market. Get ‘em. Get ‘em now. And know that the dollar rates in 2019 are not going to be so abnormal in 2024.
But, hey, there are still lots of options. Turning desperate is turning stupid.
ANGELS
($$) - Jahmai Jones is a brilliant athlete from an athlete family with athlete heritage. Except for Jahmai, that heritage is all football. Jahmai is good at football, too, but his heart is with baseball. He is coachable, adaptable and hungry. so he is learning, and making progress. IN a couple of years, as those few above him metriculate and unless Billy Eppler scores another Jo Adell type in the draft, Jones could be our #1 prospect...........
HOT STOVE ACTION AND OTHER RUMORS
Stephen Strasburg, at 7 x $245 million, comes in with an AAV of $35 million. That breaks the Zack Greinke record of $34.4MM. Clearly, Greinke now sucks...........
Yesterday’s rumor was that the Cole negotiations have narrowed down to the Yankees and Angels, with the Dodgers falling to also-ran.............
Madison Bumgarner is looking for $100 million, which for a 30-year old inning eater seems reasonable. If only his ERA+ over the last 4 years has not been 146 to 128 to 116 to 107. Bumgarner is a risk...........And the Cardinals are joining the MadBum market which should help make all that happen...........
Gerrit Cole looks to sign this week, and it has nothing to do with geography. I wonder, did it ever have anything to do with geography? If it really did, and he really did have an initial desire to return home to California, who talked him out of that?.........
Adam Jones...THE Adam Jones of Gold Glove Fame (that’s sarcasm for those who were not around in 2012),... is now moving on to Japan...........
ASSTROS NUTZ
Tampa Bay Rays General Manager Erik Neander at the Winter Meetings, where this might come up every now and then as a discussion topic: “I think they outplayed us over the course of five games. They beat us. Believe they did it fair and square. Or at minimum want to believe they did in fair and square. And I’ll operate with that assumption as long as I’m able.” Denial is strong in this one.............
BASEBALL THINGS IN GENERAL
ESPN has announced the schedule for the first 16 Sunday Night Baseball games. 5 games involve the Yankees, 4 games involve the Red Sox, 4 games involved the Cubs, the Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Mets each show up 3 times. The Astros play twice, and the Braves once. That’s it. No Mike Trout and no Shohei Ohtani and no a lot of other MLB stars. And no 2019 Word Series Champion Washington Nationals, either. Good job, there, MLB and ESPN..........
The Nike swoosh is here, on all MLB jerseys starting in 2020. One tiny step towards NASCAR..........
The 3-batter minimum is coming, and teams are being warned to start building their rosters accordingly.............
Chris Archer did not have a stellar season by anyone’s standards. But that doesn’t stop Archer from putting himself out there anyway and working hard and giving his time to make a difference..........
($$) - I am opposed on principal to made-up reindeer games that exist for the sake of media interest while creating the potential to impede fair and diligent negotiations for any player to maximize their compensation. That is why I am not totally on board with Jason Stark here and his ideas to liven up MLB’s Winter Meeting. I like the ideas of opening the event with the Rule 5 draft instead of closing with the draft, and I like moving the BBWAA award reveals to this week. I might like the idea of a mini lottery to inhibit tanking as soon as anyone can prove that such a thing is having that that impact in the NBA. I cannot be opposed to live auctions for Free Agent international players since I have proposed a more open auction-style system for Free Agents myself. I REALLY like the idea of forcing franchise GM’s to leave their suites and participate in round table forums as it promotes the game highly. But those ideas that are designed to limit negotiations time so that it creates a media news frenzy are non-starters with me. All the other stuff he suggests is just fluff, but the All-Star week is fluff too and people love that shit so who am I to object?..........
Ted Simmons is one baseball player who is thrilled with the rise and development of analytics throughout baseball. It’s how he flipped from being a one-and-done on the HoF ballot in 1994 to getting into the Hall in 2019.............
Steve Pearce, who was already unofficially retired after having played in only 29 games in 2019, has unofficially retired. I mention this only because of the far more cute news that the MiLB New Hampshire Fisher Cats are interested in signing Pearce to a one-day deal so taht he can retire a Fisher Cat. The world of baseball will be a lot poorer if 42 MiLB teams are folded and this sort of zaniness is diminished even a tad.........
(h/t reddit) - Price for a hot dog in Major League Baseball by team in 2019. Pay no attention to the Angels being down there in the middle of the pack at $5 per dog. This chart needs to be rebuilt on a price per ounce basis, but the standard dog in Anaheim has become a glorified cocktail wienie...........
With Brad Ausmus out and Joe Maddon in, MLB needs to re-rank most handsome managers. Hey, this is real serious stuff!..........
And with more serious stuff, what the world truly needs is a long form review of Star Wars MLB bobbleheads...........
Rest In Peace Pete Frates, the young ballplayer struck down by ALS and the guy who was the inspiration for the viral Ice Bucket Challenge..........
STUFF
This is one tweeter who has just figured out that the game of baseball is about the interface between pitchers and hitters. Which it has been for about 130 years now..............So much for that Chris Iannetta joke I made yesterday..........Mike Napoli joins the Chicago Cubs coaching staff, as a quality assurance coach. So, official beer taster?..........