Halos Heaven: All Posts by Brent Maguire

Matt Harvey’s Inauspicious Angels Introduction

2019-04-11T09:00:00-07:00

D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

A deep dive shows a mixed bag of results for the 30-year-old

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Matt Harvey is off to a brutal start to kick off the 2019 season.

The former New York Mets ace signed a one-year $11 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels this past offseason, with the hope that he could provide useful back-end innings. While Harvey’s 2015 season, where he tossed 189 ¹⁄₃ innings with a 2.89 ERA and was an integral part of a Mets World Series run, is far behind him, you could at least squint and see the possibility of a rebound in 2019.

After Harvey was traded to Cincinnati in May last season, Harvey saw an uptick in stuff that saw his fastball sit close to 95 mph near the end of the season. On top of an increase in fastball velocity and improvement of his breaking stuff, Harvey also started striking out more batters and putting less guys on base. As a result, Angels General Manager Billy Eppler took a flier because he liked what he saw in the 30-year-old.

Well, Harvey hasn’t been very good in any category to measure pure production. This is what he’s done through 14 ¹⁄₃ innings through his first three starts:

10.05 ERA
7.05 FIP
5.7 strikeout minus walk percentage
21 hits
four home runs

Harvey isn’t generating strikeouts, he’s walking too many batters and he’s allowed far too many hits, especially of the home run variety. It’d be easy to look at Matt Harvey’s 5.39 ERA from 2016-2018 (third worst among qualified starters) and proclaim him dead as a productive MLB starter.

Having watched Matt Harvey’s three starts so far, some of these numbers just didn’t see to add up. Harvey was clearly getting shellacked on particular pitches but something else wasn’t adding up. I accepted the actual results but based on my viewings, he seemed to deserving of a better fate. This led to a deep dive that resulted in some interesting discoveries.

First and foremost, let’s address this very important caveat: It’s early and plenty of things can change for Harvey, both positively or negatively. Some of the early numbers stabilize fairly quickly (strikeouts and walks) but it’s too early to assume this is who Harvey is moving forward.

Harvey’s strikeout and walk numbers should be significantly better than his actual results. A 15.7 strikeout percentage and 10 percent walk rate is downright atrocious and some underlying numbers show he should improve those figures significantly.

Fangraphs

Harvey is running a career-low contact percentage (both in and out of the zone) by a significant margin while also generating swing-and-misses at a career-high rate (13.4 percent). Harvey is doing this despite keeping pitches in the zone near his career norms. Generally, when you’re missing more bats, you’re likely to see an uptick in strikeouts and that’s not happening right now.

Harvey’s Statcast numbers also paint a positive picture. He’s posting career-best numbers in whiff rate (28 percent) and chase contact rate (47.1 percent), two very important measures for bat-missing abilities. It’s clear that Harvey is likely due for positive regression in this department soon and based on pure stuff, that seems like a good bet.

Baseball Savant

Harvey’s fastball is sitting at 93.9 mph and two of his secondary pitches (slider and change-up) are generating whiffs at a well above-average rate. If spin rate is your kind of thing, he’s generating a higher RPM on both his fastball and slider, his two most utilized pitches. Based on stuff, strikeouts and throwing strikes, Harvey looks like he’s doing just fine but this excludes another important category: quality of contact.

This is where some of the issues come into play for Harvey. By some of the more important measures for quality of contact, Harvey is performing quite poorly.

Baseball Savant

Hitters are not only hitting the ball harder (91 mph) but they’re barreling up more baseballs (10 percent) and lifting the ball more (12.7 degree launch angle). Those are all recipes for disaster unless you believe harder hit baseballs in the air are a good thing. Harvey is allowing a lot of hard contact, which would make one believe that he’s putting pitches in poor spots.

That’s not really the case, given that Harvey’s edge percentage (pitches on the edge of the zone) is right around career norms and his meatball percentage (pitches in the middle of the zone) is a career-low 7.4 percent. This is simultaneously a positive and negative trend. It’s good that Harvey’s command appears to be fine but it’s not so good that hitters are still squaring him up anyways. This could show a case of poor sequencing by Harvey, pitch tipping or some other mechanical issue.

Those could be issues but another serious hindrance so far has been Harvey’s production with two strikes. With an 0-2 count, Harvey is running a 31.3 strikeout percentage (that’s good) but hitters are slashing .357/.438/.786 with two home runs (that’s not so good). With a 1-2 count, hitters are hitting .273/.333/.636. That’s not exactly what you want with two strikes.

On top of the issues with two strikes, Harvey is getting ripped apart by both handed hitters but more-so by left-handed hitters. In 36 plate appearances, lefties have hit .357/.500/.786 with three home runs while walking seven times. Harvey has struck out just five of those lefties. Right-handed hitters, meanwhile, are hitting .333/.353/.515 against Harvey, which looks “great” compared to lefties but that’s an alarming rate. Sure, Harvey has struck out six of those righties and walked none but that sort of production is discouraging.

This is a lot to digest so let’s sum this up a bit. Harvey’s stuff looks good and he’s due for some positive regression in both his strikeout rate and walk rate. That’s the encouraging part. The discouraging part is Harvey is getting hit harder than ever and is struggling mightily with two strikes. The latter is something that can probably be fixed but the hard-hit balls is less easy to fix.

We’re only three starts into Matt Harvey’s Angels tenure and the results are not great. There are plenty of bad trends Harvey has shown along some encouraging trends. Much like the past half-decade, Harvey remains a fascinating MLB pitcher and one worth monitoring. What he’ll do the remainder of the 2019 season remains to be seen.

Mike Trout’s Crazy Hot Start to 2019

2019-04-07T10:47:45-07:00

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Is it possible that Trout hasn’t reached his peak yet?

Mike Trout is unsurprisingly off to a good start to the 2019 season. What’s more surprising, however, is just how ridiculously good he’s been so far.

After establishing career-best marks in on-base percentage (.460), slugging percentage (.628) and wRC+ (191) in 2018, Trout is blowing those numbers out of the water right now. Sure, it’s a small sample of nine games but Trout is hitting an absurd .385/.553/.923 with a 300 wRC+. More impressively, Trout’s past three games versus the Texas Rangers have been nothing short of incredible.

Trout has homered in each of the three games, including a multi-home run game on Friday night and his fifth career grand slam on Saturday afternoon, a ball that traveled 458 feet into the left field bleachers.

MIKE. TROUT.

(MLB x @PapaJohns) pic.twitter.com/y738v4rw3A
— MLB (@MLB) April 6, 2019

During that three game stretch, Trout has been to the plate 13 times. He has reached base nine times in that span, slamming four home runs, walking three times and getting hit by a pitch. Trout is basically a one-man wrecking crew right now that is carrying a team that is near the bottom of the leaderboards in every meaningful category.

You’ll be absolutely shocked to know (evidenced by this home run barrage) that Trout is crushing baseballs so far this year. Trout’s 91.2 mph average exit velocity last year was plenty good but that number has jumped to 94.5 mph this year. This bodes well because, according to a recent piece by The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, exit velocity tends to stabilize quickly.

On top of the prodigious exit velocity, Trout is barreling up baseballs at a 21.1 percent rate, the third highest figure in baseball. As you can see by this graphic from Baseball Savant, Trout is pretty much doing everything extremely well at the plate.

Baseball Savant

On top of producing quality of contact at an elite rate, Trout has all but decided to stop swinging at bad pitches. His swinging-strike has dropped yet again, showing an ongoing trend of improving plate discipline. In fact, Trout has improved his swinging-strike rate six years in a row.

Fangraphs

Trout’s entire batted ball profile has improved yet again. Through nine games, Trout has a career-high mark in contact percentage (90.7 percent) while boasting a career-low 36.2 swing percentage. He is swinging at more pitches in the zone (61 percent) while swinging at practically nothing out of the zone (9.7 percent).

Just like exit velocity, plate discipline numbers tend to stabilize fairly quickly so Trout may be close to establishing a new baseline. If Trout stays in the same ballpark with both quality of contact and plate discipline, he’ll become borderline impossible to pitch to.

Maybe this isn’t all that surprising given that Trout has walked eight times and only struck out three times in his first 38 plate appearances. Trout’s power surge, his near-perfect eye at the plate and an Angels lineup that lacks serious depth with no Justin Upton or Shohei Ohtani (for the time being) means that Trout’s on-base percentage could legitimately hover near .500 this year. In a day and age where the average OBP hovers in the low 300’s (average OBP was .318 in 2018), this is nothing short of incredible.

Just mere weeks after signing the richest contract in North American sports history, Mike Trout is showing he is worth every penny so far. Recent trends show that Trout may be in for his biggest year yet so buckle up for what could be a historic season.

Angels Announce Opening Day Roster

2019-03-28T09:56:46-07:00

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

A flurry of trades led to delayed announcing of the 25-man roster

A plethora of trades the past few days led to the Angels announcing their 25-man roster mere hours before their first regular season game.

While the usual mainstays, like Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, will occupy spots on the 25-man roster, there is quite a bit of turnover from last year’s Opening Day roster. Only nine players from the 2018 Opening Day roster stuck around to make it onto the 2019 roster: Trout, Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols, Zack Cozart, Tyler Skaggs, Noe Ramirez, Luke Bard and Cam Bedrosian.

Here is a full breakdown of the rest of the roster, which includes 11 new players that the organization brought in over the offseason. Included for each group of players are projections from Fangraphs on where the Angels positions projects to rank in 2019.

Starting Rotation

Trevor Cahill (1)

Matt Harvey (2)

Tyler Skaggs (3)

Felix Peña (4)

Chris Stratton (5)

No Andrew Heaney hurts right now, with the southpaw slated to miss the start of the season with elbow inflammation. He’s still projected to be the Angels best starter, which is not exactly an encouraging sign given he may miss some of the first month. On top of that, Jaime Barria, who had a 3.41 ERA in 129 1/3 innings last year, was surprisingly optioned to Triple-A.

Replacing Barria is Chris Stratton, who was acquired early Tuesday morning from the San Francisco Giants. Angels Manager Brad Ausmus confirmed that Stratton will be in the rotation and the 28-year-old will try to provide decent, albeit boring, innings. Stratton is a high-spin rate guy, the type of pitcher Angels General Manager Billy Eppler has looked for in the past.

Tyler Skaggs and Felix Peña, the latter whom threw 92 2/3 decent innings last year, will complement newcomers Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill to round out the rotation. The Angels rotation already projected as a below-average unit and Heaney’s injury and Barria’s surprising demotion makes this group even more questionable.

If anyone falters, the Angels have depth coming later in the season when guys like Nick Tropeano and J.C. Ramirez return from injuries. On top of those guys, top prospects Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez are practically MLB-ready and could make a significant push for rotation time later this season.

Bullpen

Cody Allen (6)

Ty Buttrey (7)

Hansel Robles (8)

Luis Garcia (9)

Justin Anderson (10)

Cam Bedrosian (11)

Noe Ramirez (12)

Luke Bard (13)

Projected as a bottom 10 unit, there is a ton of volatility with this group given there isn’t a whole lot of reliability and a plethora of arms with high-octane stuff. Only Ramirez didn’t average a fastball harder than 93 mph last year while three of the relievers threw 97+ mph (Robles, Garcia, Anderson).

Stuff doesn't always equate to success but there are some intriguing arms with upside. Buttrey impressed in a short 16 1/3 inning stint last year (0.8 Wins Above Replacement) and looks to compete with Allen as the best reliever in this bullpen. Allen saw declines in major categories last year but was one of baseball’s best relievers from 2013-2017.

Robles, Garcia and Anderson are the flamethrowers who have some decent job security while Bedrosian, Ramirez and Bard could be on a short leash in they start the season poorly. If any of the arms flail, the club will resort to arms such as the newly acquired Sam Freeman John Curtiss, Jake Jewell and Jeremy Rhoades. Injured pitchers Keynan Middleton, J.C. Ramirez, Taylor Cole and Nick Tropeano could play roles later in the year.

This unit is rolling eight deep for now and this could benefit the team as they try to maximize each pitcher with less innings on a given night. They might not be quite as drastic and utilize “openers” like Tampa Bay does but there could be some different pitcher usage than we’ve seen the club use in recent years.

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy (14)

Kevan Smith (15)

Gone are players such as Martin Maldonado, Rene Rivera and Francisco Arcia, who will be replaced by newcomers Jonathan Lucroy and Kevan Smith. While Lucroy and Smith project to be decent enough with the bat, their defensive shortcomings make this group a real question mark and a project bottom five group according to Fangraphs.

A bounce back is possible for Lucroy, who is now three years removed from his last productive season, but he’s likely more of a fringe starter whose better suited in a backup role. This is one area the club will likely need to address with a long-term option in the near future. If anyone falters or gets hurt, Jose Briceno will likely be next in line for MLB time while prospect Jack Kruger has an outside shot to snag time later in the year.

Infield/Designated Hitter

Justin Bour (16)

Albert Pujols (17)

David Fletcher (18)

Tommy La Stella (19)

Andrelton Simmons (20)

Zack Cozart (21)

Shohei Ohtani’s absence really makes this whole group look a lot weaker, and that includes the fourth best projected shortstop in Andrelton Simmons. After back-to-back five-win seasons, Simmons is once again projected for a strong season and makes for a borderline MVP candidate.

Bour and Pujols don’t have a rosy outlook at first base as they’re projected to be the fourth worst group in baseball. Neither player adds any value defensively or on the bases and they might combine for below league-average production offensively. Matt Thaiss, who had a killer spring, could steal playing time sooner rather than later.

Cozart and Fletcher will likely handle the bulk of duties at second and third base, although the injury to Justin Upton may thrust Fletcher into a super utility role with some outfield time. Even with a projected bounce back for Cozart, the third base group projects as a bottom 10 unit as does the second base position. La Stella is a useful bench piece but he’s not an ideal fit to receive significant at bats given his limited skillset.

When Ohtani returns in the next few months, this group of players looks significantly better as he is projected to be one of the top designated hitters in baseball. On top of that projection, he’ll also steal playing time away from Bour and Pujols, which will benefit the club.

Outfield

Mike Trout (22)

Kole Calhoun (23)

Peter Bourjos (24)

Brian Goodwin (25)

Mike Trout’s 10-year, $360 million extension will keep him in an Angels uniform for life and makes the Angels outfield an elite unit for the foreseeable future. Trout’s 9.2 win projection is unsurprisingly the highest of any player in baseball and there’s no reason to think he won’t hit that mark again in his age 27 season.

Calhoun was historically bad in the first half last year and turned it on in the second half but still finished with zero WAR. His 1.9 win projection makes him a bottom 10 right fielder and his inconsistent 2018 season makes him a much bigger wild card than he’s been in years past.

Upton has a case of turf toe and will miss the start of the season, which means Peter Bourjos and the recently acquired Brian Goodwin may both receive time in left field to start the year. Bourjos is far removed from any meaningful MLB production while Goodwin has been decent the past few years, giving Goodwin an edge for more playing time.

If this group doesn’t cut it, some combination of Michael Hermosillo, Jarret Parker, Cesar Puello or possibly even David Fletcher will get the next shot at at bats. Top prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh could get a cup of tea later this year but they likely have 2020 ETAs.

Angels Claim Outfielder Brian Goodwin

2019-03-27T15:23:36-07:00

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The club added an outfielder who looks like a 25-man roster option

The Angels continued their active day as they attempt to finalize their 25-man roster.

After signing left-handed pitcher Sam Freeman and acquiring prospect Adrian Rondon earlier today, the club claimed outfielder Brian Goodwin off waivers from the Kansas City Royals. Goodwin, who split time between the Royals and Nationals last year, hit .239/.318/.390 with a 93 wRC+ and accumulated 0.6 Wins Above Replacement in 75 games.

Over the past two years, Goodwin has combined for a .246/.315/.456 line with 19 home runs and 1.1 WAR in 149 games. The 28-year-old played all three outfield positions but profiles better in a corner, which works just fine for a team with Mike Trout in center field. Goodwin looks like a perfectly serviceable short-term option who won’t kill the team for the time being.

With Justin Upton out for the foreseeable future, it looks like some combination of Goodwin, Peter Bourjos and David Fletcher will handle the duties in left field. The 25-man roster is likely to be set at some point today and Goodwin looks like a good bet to crack the roster.

Angels Option Jaime Barria to Triple-A and Release Dan Jennings

2019-03-26T17:22:44-07:00

Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The club made two surprising moves as they try to finalize their 25-man roster

The Angels continued to trim their roster down mere hours before they finalize their 25-man rosters. Via the Angels PR twitter account, the club has optioned right-handed pitcher Jaime Barria to Triple-A and released left-handed pitcher Dan Jennings.

This was a bit of an unexpected move as Barria seemed like a lock for the fifth starter’s spot and Jennings was the only left-handed pitching option left in the bullpen. Instead, it looks as if the newly acquired Chris Stratton will take the last rotation spot and Luke Bard will take one of the bullpen spots.

The 22-year-old Barria tossed 129 1/3 quality innings last year, posting a very solid 3.41 ERA with less impressive peripherals. Jennings, who had a 3.22 ERA in 64 1/3 innings for the Brewers last year, signed a minor league pact with the Angels but ultimately couldn’t crack a roster spot just before Opening Day.

Stratton and Bard, who are both high spin-rate guys and interesting Statcast case studies, weren’t even members of the organization a few months back but look like the likely options to occupy the last two pitching slots. This is purely speculation at this point but Stratton is out of options and Bard has seen significant time the past few weeks.

Another trade could be in the works but with two days left until the season, it’s likely the club will roll with their in-house options. If some other surprising releases happen in the next 24 hours, the club could pounce on a pitcher that intrigues them. Stay tuned later as we will likely hear the announcement of the official 25-man roster.

Billy Eppler’s Perspective on the Mike Trout Extension

2019-03-25T09:00:00-07:00

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Angels General Manager discussed the journey to this record-breaking deal

“Today is a special day in Angels history. We’re extremely proud to say we’re keeping Mike Trout in an Angels uniform for the next 12 years.”

These were the words spoken by Angels General Manager Billy Eppler, who was at the forefront of the negotiations that led to the largest contract handed out in North American sports history. Eppler, who has been at the helm since the 2016 season, is no stranger to making monumental moves. Trout’s extension comes a mere 15 months after the club signed two-way star Shohei Ohtani.

Trout’s 10-year, $360 million extension was the result of several years of hard work and due diligence done by Eppler and several other high-ranking Angels officials. “This was something that Arte Moreno (Angels owner), John Carpino (Angels president) and I discussed a number of times over the past few seasons,” Eppler said. “Those thoughts ultimately led to discussions, that began in late February and culminated this week with an agreement.”

Following his speech at the press conference, Eppler spoke with the media and discussed some of the intricacies that went into signing a deal this large and the negotiations that led to this franchise-altering signing.

Everything started to come together in late February. “That’s when conversations really began for both sides,” Eppler said. “The internal conversations began in 2017 and I began thinking about it about a month after I was on the job (in late 2015).”

While the internal conversations were complex and lasted for years, communication between the Angels side and Trout’s side was pretty straight forward last month. Early on in the process, Eppler was approached by Trout’s agent Craig Landis, who reiterated one very important message: “Mike wants this to be his last contract.” This made the negotiations much easier for Eppler and Trout, who both had the common goal of making Trout an Angel for life.

With two years remaining on Trout’s deal before hitting free agency, Eppler said the urgency to get a deal done was more of his own urgency. “I just felt like as we got towards next winter time, it was going to be something I was asked about everyday, Craig (Landis) was going to be asked about, Mike (Trout) was going to be asked about, etc. Now was the right time.”

Coming into Spring Training, the open dialogue between both parties led to more conversation, which really heated up after a one-on-one meeting that Arte Moreno had with Trout this month. It was then that Trout and Moreno both realized the importance of getting a deal done soon and not letting this linger any longer.

A few days after that meeting, Eppler received a text from Trout, who said he wanted to meet privately with Eppler. Within a day, Eppler was sitting face-to-face with both Trout and Landis, where they hammered out some of the important details of the contract. This is where Eppler felt really confident that a deal was going to get done.

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

This past Monday (March 18) was when everything started to materialize. The Angels had an off day in Arizona and Eppler was back in Anaheim for an event with season ticket holders. Later that day, Eppler had a call with Moreno and Carpino, where they “took their position” and discussed their “comfort level and threshold” on a deal for Trout.

On Tuesday morning, prior to flying out to Arizona, Eppler and Carpino had a phone call with Landis, where both sides talked about “financials” and how the “cash would be outlaid”. By the time Eppler was boarding his flight at John Wayne Airport in Orange County, the two sides were essentially ready to sign off on a deal.

When Eppler was halfway through his flight to Arizona, he received the news from Landis that Trout was ready to sign. Eppler shot congratulatory texts to high-ranking Angels officials, including Moreno, and the baseball world learned that Trout would be signing his extension with the Angels just hours later.

There was never really any doubt that Trout was the perfect player that warranted a deal this large. “He checks all of the boxes,” said Eppler. “There’s never been anybody I’ve been around that checks all of the boxes.”

Eppler, when asked about determining Trout’s value, cited a thorough search of player comparisons that dated back to the 1950’s. “We did a historical look at the population of the elite players who have played the game. Roughly from the late 1950’s on because it’s a pretty elite group.”

Given that Trout is the all-time leader in Wins Above Replacement (64.9) through an age 26 season, it’s not all that surprising that finding a comparable contract for Trout wasn’t easy. Even recent contracts handed out to superstars Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado weren’t fair comparisons since they’re a tier well below Trout.

On top of trying to determine Trout’s value, one of the hardest aspect of negotiations according to Eppler, was “trying to forecast how the next 12 years were going to look.” Any deal this large was always going to provide issues, but determining how Trout could age was a crucial aspect and the organization felt comfortable with their answer.

The Angels and Trout both felt comfortable with the length of the deal and both sides felt like they didn't need any uncertainty. Landis approached the Angels with the idea of opt-outs early on in the process and Eppler said the club wasn’t interested. To him, “loyalty and commitment” were key parts of this deal and opt-outs took away from that.

Transparency, along with loyalty and commitment, were some of the key parts throughout the negotiations. “When you lay all the cards on the table and you’re both transparent and direct, then reasonable minds can usually come together,” Eppler said. This transparency is something Eppler said plays a huge role in his job running a franchise.

In the end, the Angels and Trout came to terms on a deal because it just made sense. Eppler and the Angels wanted Trout as an Angel for life. Trout wanted to be an Angel for life. That ultimate goal came to fruition. For the first time in franchise history, the organization will get to watch a player they both drafted and developed embark on a Hall of Fame career and spend his entire career in an Angels uniform.

The Implications of Mike Trout’s Record-Breaking Deal

2019-03-19T12:12:07-07:00

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

What does this deal mean for Trout, the Angels and the rest of baseball?

Mike Trout, the unanimous best player in baseball, signed a mega contract that will keep him with the Los Angeles Angels for life.

Halo Heaven’s very own Jessica DeLine broke down the initial story and the rest of the writers gave their initial thoughts on the Trout deal. Trout, if you haven’t heard, signed a 12-year-deal worth nearly $430 million, the largest contract in North American sports history.

*UPDATE: The 12 year deal includes the final two years of his current deal (two years, $66.5 million).*

The very obvious implications of this deal are not only huge for Trout but also for the Angels and the rest of baseball. This deal ensures that Trout won’t have to test free agency ever again and has guaranteed financial security for many generations of Trout’s family. After signing a six year, $144.5 million dollar deal prior to the 2014 season, Trout’s second major deal guarantees him over $500 million of earnings in his career.

For the Angels, rather than urgently trying to win before he was slated to leave in free agency after 2020, the club can now have a long-term view on building a winner. In his Angels tenure, General Manager Billy Eppler has slowly built the organization up, from the bottom levels all the way to the MLB level. While the results haven’t shown up on the field, players such as Shohei Ohtani, Andrelton Simmons, Jo Adell and Griffin Canning give Trout a legitimate supporting cast for the near future.

For the rest of baseball, Trout’s deal eliminates several teams who were likely going to be big players for Trout, namely the Philadelphia Phillies. Bryce Harper, the newest member of the Phillies, was already alluring to Trout coming to Philadelphia and even got accused of tampering. This is all for naught now as Trout is locked in as an Angel for life.

While $400+ million for any single player carries inherent risk, it’s possible that this deal is well under market value for Trout. If you buy into Wins Above Replacement, Trout’s value is on a whole different level than the rest of baseball. Since 2012, Trout’s 64.2 WAR is nearly 20 wins higher than the next best player (Buster Posey at 45.4). Trout is not just the best player in baseball; he’s in a class of his own.

After a slight drop off in production in 2014, the year he ironically won his first American League Most Valuable Player Award, Trout has found a way to improve in some fashion every year since. After establishing an already elite baseline, Trout decided to improve in a major category in each year since.

-In 2015, Trout started hitting for more power, slugging a career high .590 with 41 home runs while also shaving his strikeout rate.

-In 2016, after only stealing 27 combined bases the two years prior, Trout swiped 30 bags, shaved his strikeout rate again and posted a career best (to date) .441 on base percentage.

-Trout had a significant injury for the first time in 2017 but when he was on the field for 114 games, he ran a 181 wRC+ while walking more than he struck out.

-2018 brought everything together with Trout slugging 39 home runs, stealing 24 bases, nearly walking as many times as he struck out and improving his defense in center field. Had he not missed 22 games due to injury and the tragic passing of his brother-in-law, Trout might’ve won his third American League MVP award.

Trout has reached the point where he essentially has no flaws in his game, is consistently an elite player and is still just 27 years old. If Trout ages like the all-time greats, there’s a chance this deal has loads of surplus value in it. To illustrate:

Incredible to think that $430M over 12 years could be a bargain, but that is almost certainly the case with the Angels in Trout (look at the “ages poorly” option!!!!).

H/T to @fangraphs
Cc @jjcoop36 @keithlaw @alexspeier pic.twitter.com/WpV4Ww4fcO
— Ben Gellman-Chomsky (@benjgc) March 19, 2019

To reiterate, $430 million is plenty of money and Trout will certainly be financially stable but this deal is not only fair but it may be a bargain. Trout will earn somewhere around $35.8 million each season, which is the highest AAV (Average Annual Value) in the sport, but it’s a justified figure.

This is a win-win for the Angels and Mike Trout. The club locks up a generational talent, confirming he’ll enter the Hall of Fame as a member of the Angels someday, while Trout doesn’t have to negotiate a deal for the rest of his career. The next step for the Angels is to find a way to get Trout and the rest of the team into the playoffs.

The Angels and Two-Way Players

2019-03-05T14:21:30-08:00

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Could the Angels be at the forefront of a new strategy?

The Los Angeles Angels’ use of the two-way player could kickstart a new strategy across baseball. Finding a dual threat, the player who can both pitch and hit, may become a priority for teams trying to maximize value and versatility.

Shohei Ohtani, despite undergoing Tommy John Surgery after the end of the 2018 season, may have altered the way the Angels view two-way players moving forward. While Ohtani will put the two-way thing on hold this year as a bat-only player, there are other players within the Angels organization that will try to both pitch and hit.

Prospect Jared Walsh, who hit 29 home runs across three levels in 2018, may be the next Angels player of note to both pitch and hit. Walsh also tossed 5 2/3 innings last season and the Angels saw enough to try to diversify his skillset. Through a few weeks of Spring Training, Walsh has already made two appearances on the mound, showing the makings of a useful pitcher.

Jared Walsh delivering from a low three-quarter arm slot, primarily used fastball that he blew through twice on Adam Moore (note: FB was 88-92 last year in minors), some feel for curveball, feel for strikes - perfect inning on groundout and two flyouts on 13 pitches #Angels
— Taylor Blake Ward (@TaylorBlakeWard) February 28, 2019

Walsh is not the only member at Angels camp who is trying to pull off the same stunt. Kaleb Cowart, after spending some time in both Tigers and Mariners camp, made his way back to the Angels last week and will give pitching a go again. After pitching in a “B” game on Saturday and allegedly sitting in the low-90’s, Cowart started against the White Sox on Monday and did this:

Welcome back @KalebCowart #LAASpring pic.twitter.com/p9l3OEKuwI
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) March 4, 2019

Spring Training or not, it’s pretty cool to see someone pitch, return two days later as a hitter and smash a go ahead grand slam. Cowart’s history as a hitter (career .177/.241/.293 line) is rather bad but his above-average defense at numerous infield positions adds intrigue to his possible ability to pitch.

Along with Cowart and Walsh, there are two other Angels prospects trying to pull this off. 27-year-old Bo Way is listed as both an outfielder and pitcher in camp but has yet to make an appearance on the mound. William English, the club’s 2018 fifth round pick, will try to both hit and pitch this season after appearing strictly as a hitter last year. MLB Pipeline listed English as the organization’s 25th best prospect and his development will be fascinating to track.

While the Angels appear to be at the forefront of making the two-way player relevant, they aren’t the only club who seems interested in this strategy. A record 48 position players pitched in 2018, a number that could go up this season if more and more teams find value in this strategy. On top of this, Tampa Bay Rays prospect Brendan McKay is a legitimately great prospect who shows above-average tools both on the mound and at the plate.

With pitcher injuries on the rise, finding position players who can possibly pitch in when called upon could become a bonafide option. With a 26 man roster possibly coming to baseball in the future, it’s possible teams view two-way players as that perfect option for the 26th spot.

This could all just be a small blip on the radar and teams find that it’s impossible to find two-way players and utilize them to their full potential. Maybe a handful of players take on this role in the foreseeable future. Who knows? Either way, it will be a fascinating process to watch unfold.

What the Harper, Machado and Arenado Contracts Mean for Mike Trout

2019-03-02T10:00:00-08:00

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

How do these three lucrative deals impact Trout’s potentially record-breaking contract?

Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies just agreed upon the largest contract in North American sports history, a deal that will pay Harper $330 million over the next 13 years.

This came just days after Nolan Arenado signed an eight year, $260 million extension with the Colorado Rockies, which came a week after Manny Machado signed a 10 year, $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres. In a matter of nine days, three of baseball’s best young players signed lucrative long-term deals that will keep them with their current franchises for the next decade.

Unsurprisingly, the attention has now turned to Los Angeles Angels superstar Mike Trout, who has just two years remaining on his seven year, $144.5 million deal. Both Trout and the Angels have expressed interest in discussing a new contract but no formal negotiations have begun. This has led to frantic discussion (specifically at the Angels twittersphere) about Trout’s future contract and who he may be playing with in a few years.

Trout will almost certainly break the record contract Harper just signed and it might not be by a small amount. Trout’s production through age 26 is unparalleled by anyone in baseball history, which is evidenced quite well by this graphic from Cut 4.

Trout eventually finished the 2018 season with a higher WAR than Cobb through age 26, making him the most productive player at his age in baseball’s long history. Given Trout’s insanely consistent production (five 9+ WAR seasons) and improving numbers at the plate (career-best 191 wRC+ in 2018), there’s no reason to think he’ll stop being an elite player any time soon. This means there’s very little to scare teams off from handing over millions of dollars to him.

Now that we have three comparable (relatively) young players who signed huge deals that will cover some prime years, we can examine Trout’s possible contract. The truly absurd aspect of this potential Trout contract is he’ll likely be underpaid even if he receives hundreds of millions of dollars. To further illustrate:

A mildly ridiculous exercise, but why not:

Bryce Harper bWAR from 2016-18:

7.5 ($330MM contract)

Mike Trout bWAR from 2016-18:

27.3

If Trout's next contract were to be valued at just the equivalent in dollars/WAR over the last 3 years, his contract would be

$1.2 billion.
— Manny Randhawa (@MannyOnMLB) March 1, 2019

Obviously, no team will hand out $1.2 billion for Trout, regardless of what the insane numbers may tell you. But this does show that Trout’s value is so high that he is more than capable and deserving of receiving a deal that approaches $400 million and possibly even $500 million. Along with the Angels, there will likely be plenty of teams willing to throw that kind of money Trout’s way.

If Trout is unable to agree to a deal with the Angels and becomes a free agent, you can pretty well imagine what the market would be like for him. The Phillies ($121.2 million), Yankees ($110.7 million) and Nationals ($107.4 million) are the only clubs with more than $100 million in guaranteed money for the 2021 season, the year Trout could potentially be playing elsewhere. The Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Mets could all be in play for Trout if they play their cards right.

As for the Angels, this type of contract could easily fit well within their budget. While the organization has had limited payroll flexibility this entire decade and is still boasting a top 10 payroll, they do have flexibility beyond 2020. Albert Pujols’ albatross contract ends after 2021 and Justin Upton is the only Angel locked up beyond 2021. Pujols ($30 million) and Upton ($23 million) have the only guaranteed deals for 2021.

Even with a possible Andrelton Simmons extension (also a free agent after 2020) and arbitration raises for players like Shohei Ohtani and Andrew Heaney, the Angels may have their best payroll situation in years when the new decade hits. Add in a potentially large influx of cheap and young impact players such as Jo Adell, Griffin Canning and Brandon Marsh and you’re looking at a roster conducive for taking on a lucrative Trout contract.

In the end, this decision is entirely up to Mike Trout, who will decide where he wants to play baseball for an entire decade. Even if the Angels back up a Brinks truck for him or hand him a blank check, he could very well decide to test the free agent market. He could also like the idea of spending his entire career with one franchise and leading the Angels back to the playoffs.

Given Mike Trout’s laid back nature and interaction with the media, we likely won’t know his actual plans until they come to fruition. What we do know is he’ll likely sign a deal that destroys the Harper, Machado and Arenado contracts. Who Trout signs a deal with remains to be seen.

Mapping out playing time for Matt Thaiss

2019-02-28T09:37:22-08:00

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016 first rounder is knocking on the door of the majors. How can the Angels get his bat into the lineup?

I’ll be the first to say that Spring Training statistics are both misleading and not entirely useful, especially when small sample size (SSS) applies.

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about this scorching start that Matt Thaiss, the Angels 2016 first rounder, is off to. In 11 trips to the plate, Thaiss has recorded seven hits, including three doubles and two triples, while not striking out. He’s currently rocking a .700/.727/1.400 line, which has Angels fans clamoring for him to make the Opening Day roster.

Here’s the issue: Thaiss is a first base-only guy whose trying to make a roster filled with plenty of first base/designated hitter options. Even with Shohei Ohtani likely not slated to return until around May, the Angels project to give the bulk of the 1B/DH duties to veterans Albert Pujols and Justin Bour.

This makes the path to playing time trickier for Thaiss, who is arguably ready for a real cup of coffee in the majors. The decline of the aforementioned Pujols is well-known and he’s once again projected for a sub-replacement level season while eating up a large chunk of payroll. Bour endured a down 2018 season but still posted a respectable 107 wRC+ and has a track record of crushing right-handed pitching (career 129 wRC+).

Once Ohtani returns, it makes the logjam at first base and designated hitter even more full. Ohtani, who once again projects as one of the best hitters in the American League, will handle most of the DH duties come May or June. This leaves a platoon of sorts at first base, where the Angels will have to find a way to start giving less at bats to Pujols assuming his decline continues.

Fitting Thaiss into this equation seems a bit difficult. There’s no doubt he’s produced enough in the minors to start this conversation and his recent swing changes have altered his profile a bit. Fangraphs recently released their Angels prospect rankings, where they slapped a 45 grade on Thaiss and ranked him as their ninth best prospect. Included in that write-up was this important tidbit:

In an era where seemingly every player is making some sort of swing change, Thaiss has joined this movement, utilizing this leg kick along with a shorter stance. If these changes are real and Thaiss is able to blend his usual plate discipline with a power uptick, his future projection looks a heck of a lot rosier.

Unfortunately for Thaiss, he may not get to showcase himself much this year unless the Angels see injuries or poor performance from Pujols and Bour. Based on talent alone and his progression through the minors, Thaiss’ ETA doesn’t budge much but his true coming-out party may be 2020.