Much to the chagrin of the Halos Heaven community, Billy Eppler has been quite frugal during his tenure when it comes to spending on the bullpen. While none of us were holding our breath he would pony up $60 million for one of the big fish closers on this year’s market, the hope was he would use some of his new found capital to reel in a Daniel Hudson or a Brad Ziegler to shore up the back end of the pen.
Instead, we will likely see the team roll out the same collection of fringe arms and question marks we saw last season. While Deolis Guerra and J.C. Ramirez hardly inspire confidence bridging the gap to Andrew Bailey, Huston Street and Cam Bedrosian (whom all have their own set of question marks), there remain plenty of good arms in the organization that can help bolster the pen, if the team so chooses to use them in that capacity.
The problem being that those arms are currently slated to battle for the club’s fifth starter spot. Assuming health, Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs and Ricky Nolasco will lock down the first four spots in the rotation, with Jesse Chavez and Alex Meyer the current favorites for the fifth spot. Whichever one earns the spot, you can bet that the other will be held in reserve as a long reliever to piggy-back the other’s starts, essentially as a tandem starter every fifth day. This would not be the worst plan in the world if the club had some lock-down arms behind them in the pen, but with both starters profiling best as relievers, their talents would best serve the needs of the club in more frequent, short spurts.
Of course, this would require a reliable arm to seize that fifth starter role, something that Billy Eppler would have to go outside the organization to find. Two obvious names remaining on the free agent market who could help immensely are Ivan Nova and Jason Hammel. The former had some early career success with the Yankees before being derailed by injuries. He was finally healthy this year and enjoyed a J.A. Happ-like resurgence after a mid-season trade to the Pirates and their pitch doctors. The latter is a veteran who can reliably give you a 170+ league-average innings.
Nova, whom Eppler is obviously familiar with from his Yankee days, provides more upside as he enters his age-30 season. His average fastball in 2016 was 92 MPH, just as it was during his pre-injury days. The injury risk is still very real, which is likely why he is still on the market. That risk will likely keep both the years and salary fairly modest, something the Angels could certainly use to their advantage.
When he is right, Nova is a ground-ball machine, something that would play right into the hands of the Angels’ elite middle infield defense. Overall, he checked off every metric you want to see from a starting pitcher last season: 7.06 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 53.6 GB%. The only alarming number was how many balls left the yard when he did allow batters to hit it in the air, though there was a stark difference in that frequency once he left New York: 15.1% HR/FB with the Yankees and all the way down to 4.5% with the Pirates. I would guess that number would stay at the lower end in Angels Stadium. I would not blush at offering him 3 years, $40 million. If he’s healthy, that could be a huge bargain. If he’s not, it is not the type of contract that would sink the organization the next few years.
Hammel lacks the pure stuff but is the better bet to stay healthy. To his credit, he maintained an ERA under 4.00 the last two seasons, using the Cubs’ elite defense to his full advantage. As a fly-ball pitcher, Hammel is a particularly good fit for the west coast ballparks. Unlike the now-departed Jered Weaver, Hammel still maintains a good strikeout rate to minimize the damage. He displays good control, keeping his walk rate under 3.0 the last three seasons.
At age 34 with a modest pedigree, he is likely fielding a number of low-ball offers. After being shut out of the Cubs’ World Series run, it would seem likely he would be happy to land in a place that can guarantee him 30 starts. I would bet a two-year, $18 million deal gets it done. Combining the Angels’ ballpark and defense could easily see him eclipse that value.
Signing either of these two would solidify the starting five and suddenly shape the bullpen with some intriguing options. Chavez, Meyer and Brooks Pounders could see their stuff play up in middle-relief. Whichever one is throwing the ball the best would likely get the first call when a starter inevitably goes down. With all three capable of starting, they can be called upon to work multiple innings, potentially shortening games and allowing Mike Scioscia to use Jose Alvarez as more of a lefty specialist. Of course, that makes a huge assumption that old Mike would be open to such progressive bullpen usage, but that is a topic for another day.
This plan would not make the Angels’ pen elite in any way, but it would undoubtedly give them more options. Chavez, Meyer and Pounders all project as below-average starters but are all potential lottery tickets in the pen, where mediocre starters often become all-stars. Signing Nova or Hammel could be a potential 2-3 win improvement over our current gaggle of fifth starters, while pushing Guerra, Morin or Ramirez further down the depth chart can only help the pen, buying us time until the arrival of Keynan Middleton.
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