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When we talk about the merits of taking the "best player available" in the draft, what could we possibly mean? It's a truism that folks repeat regularly with confidence, but is it any more sensible than speaking about finding a "soul mate" or the tastiest cherry in a bushel?
If all teams knew who the "BPA" on the universal big board was, the draft would be perfectly efficient, discounting for injury or tragedy. But take a look at the last few decades, even within the first couple rounds, and the draft is anything but. There are busts everywhere, and apples and oranges dance, clash and co-mingle.
It’s not just that each team has relative needs, and market inefficiencies change each year, but it’s also virtually impossible to justly compare the "best" players across position, age, experience, etc. Raw prepsters with "high ceilings" vs "safe" collegiate polish and "high floors." Recent injury histories vs forecasts of greater or lesser 'durability'. Description is always easier than prediction, and even our best descriptive performance metrics (like WAR) don’t themselves reliably assess players across position and context without substantial error bars.
In truth, I think we can speak to relative tiers of players, but zeroing in one "BPA" involves a significant fallacy of precision. The best we can do is take a wisdom-of-crowds approach, survey all the experts, and try to learn from the averages. Just as in polling, there's a tendency to "herd" at the end (ie, crib from your neighbor's test), but one can expect that front offices do a bit of the same, and when all is said and done, the early picks conform more to expectation than surprise on balance.
So this is what the "consensus big board" attempts to do – not predict outcomes based on team drafting philosophy and need – but rather create a directional stack-rank based on the composite of expert rankings and predictions. Today's update expands the board through the first two rounds, inclusive of compensation and competitive balance picks, and integrates the latest draft mock updates from MLB.com, Keith Law, John Manuel and others (15 boards in all). Take a look:
Slot | Player | Team | Level & Position | Raw Rank |
1 | A.J. Puk | Philadelphia Phillies | College LHP | 2.07 |
2 | Kyle Lewis | Cincinnati Reds | College OF | 4.00 |
3 | Jason Groome | Atlanta Braves | HS LHP | 4.60 |
4 | Corey Ray | Colorado Rockies | College OF | 5.20 |
5 | Nick Senzel | Milwaukee Brewers | College 3B | 5.33 |
6 | Mickey Moniak | Oakland Athletics | HS OF | 5.47 |
7 | Riley Pint | Miami Marlins | HS RHP | 5.80 |
8 | Delvin Perez | San Diego Padres | HS SS | 6.73 |
9 | Blake Rutherford | Detroit Tigers | HS OF | 9.13 |
10 | Braxton Garrett | Chicago White Sox | HS LHP | 11.60 |
11 | Zack Collins | Seattle Mariners | College C | 12.67 |
12 | Dakota Hudson | Boston Red Sox | College RHP | 13.20 |
13 | Matt Manning | Tampa Bay Rays | HS RHP | 13.53 |
14 | Ian Anderson | Cleveland Indians | HS RHP | 14.27 |
15 | Alex Kirilloff | Minnesota Twins | HS 1B/OF | 16.87 |
16 | Justin Dunn | Los Angeles Angels | College RHP | 18.79 |
17 | Forrest Whitley | Houston Astros | HS RHP | 19.67 |
18 | Joey Wentz | New York Yankees | HS LHP | 20.33 |
19 | Jordan Sheffield | New York Mets | College RHP | 21.20 |
20 | Nolan Jones | Los Angeles Dodgers | HS 3B | 21.36 |
21 | T.J. Zeuch | Toronto Blue Jays | College RHP | 22.80 |
22 | Josh Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | HS 3B | 23.73 |
23 | Cal Quantrill | St. Louis Cardinals | College RHP | 24.07 |
24 | Bryan Reynolds | San Diego Padres | College OF | 25.45 |
25 | Connor Jones | San Diego Padres | College RHP | 26.30 |
26 | Will Craig | Chicago White Sox | College 1B/3B | 26.33 |
27 | Zack Burdi | Baltimore Orioles | College RHRP | 26.46 |
28 | Taylor Trammell | Washington Nationals | HS OF | 26.73 |
29 | Matt Thaiss | Washington Nationals | College C/1B | 27.13 |
30 | Cody Sedlock | Texas Rangers | College RHP | 27.67 |
31 | Eric Lauer | New York Mets | College LHP | 30.54 |
32 | Robert Tyler | Los Angeles Dodgers | College RHP | 30.57 |
33 | Kevin Gowdy | St. Louis Cardinals | HS RHP | 32.10 |
34 | Gavin Lux | St. Louis Cardinals | HS SS | 32.42 |
35 | William Benson | Cincinnati Reds | HS 1B/OF | 32.50 |
36 | Buddy Reed | Los Angeles Dodgers | College OF | 33.20 |
37 | Kyle Muller | Oakland Athletics | HS LHP | 35.00 |
38 | Drew Mendoza | Colorado Rockies | HS 3B | 35.00 |
39 | Jared Horn | Arizona Diamondbacks | HS RHP | 35.80 |
40 | Carter Kieboom | Atlanta Braves | HS 3B | 38.71 |
41 | Logan Shore | Pittsburgh Pirates | College RHP | 40.50 |
42 | Alex Speas | Philadelphia Phillies | HS RHP | 40.83 |
43 | Anthony Kay | Cincinnati Reds | College LHP | 41.00 |
44 | Alec Hansen | Atlanta Braves | College RHP | 41.00 |
45 | Corbin Burnes | Colorado Rockies | College RHP | 41.43 |
46 | Anfernee Grier | Milwaukee Brewers | College OF | 42.29 |
47 | Chris Okey | Oakland Athletics | College C | 42.44 |
48 | Joe Rizzo | San Diego Padres | HS 3B | 45.71 |
49 | Jon Duplantier | Chicago White Sox | College RHP | 47.71 |
50 | Ryan Boldt | Seattle Mariners | College OF | 48.86 |
51 | Jesus Luzardo | Boston Red Sox | HS LHP | 50.33 |
52 | Dane Dunning | Arizona Diamondbacks | College RHP | 51.50 |
53 | Brandon Marsh | Tampa Bay Rays | HS OF | 53.86 |
54 | Cole Ragans | Baltimore Orioles | HS LHP | 54.00 |
55 | Daulton Jefferies | Cleveland Indians | College RHP | 55.00 |
56 | Sean Murphy | Minnesota Twins | College C | 55.14 |
57 | Heath Quinn | Toronto Blue Jays | College OF | 56.71 |
58 | Lucas Erceg | Washington Nationals | College 3B | 57.40 |
59 | Bo Bichette | San Francisco Giants | HS 2B/3B | 60.80 |
60 | Jake Fraley | Los Angeles Angels | College OF | 61.00 |
61 | Hunter Bishop | Houston Astros | HS OF | 63.75 |
62 | Cooper Johnson | New York Yankees | HS C | 64.00 |
63 | Thomas Jones | Texas Rangers | HS OF | 64.20 |
64 | Bryson Brigman | New York Mets | College SS | 64.33 |
65 | Ben Rortvedt | Los Angeles Dodgers | HS C | 65.60 |
66 | Jeff Belge | Toronto Blue Jays | HS LHP | 66.00 |
67 | Reggie Lawson | Kansas City Royals | HS RHP | 67.50 |
68 | Zach Jackson | Pittsburgh Pirates | College RHP | 67.75 |
69 | A.J. Puckett | Baltimore Orioles | College RHP | 68.25 |
70 | Akil Baddoo | St. Louis Cardinals | HS OF | 69.50 |
71 | Jameson Fisher | San Diego Padres | College OF | 69.50 |
72 | Ben Bowden | Cleveland Indians | College LHP | 71.00 |
73 | Kyle Funkhouser | Minnesota Twins | College RHP | 71.50 |
74 | Braeden Ogle | Minnesota Twins | HS LHP | 75.25 |
75 | Cole Stobbe | Milwaukee Brewers | HS 3B | 75.33 |
76 | Ryan Rolison | Atlanta Braves | HS LHP | 76.25 |
77 | Sheldon Neuse | Tampa Bay Rays | College 3B/RHP | 78.80 |