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Rating Mike Trout’s 2-homer games by Win Probability Added

Monday night was one of the best games of Trout’s career

Oakland Athletics v Los Angeles Angels Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images

Mike Trout had a wonderful game on Monday night to beat the A’s. The superstar outfielder hit two home runs, including the game-winner in the eighth inning, capping a comeback in a game the Angels once trailed by five runs.

Trout now has 20 career multi-homer games, tied with Tim Salmon and Vladimir Guerrero for most in Angels history. Trout is also only eight home runs away from passing Salmon for the all-time Angels home run list, another page of the franchise record book that will one day belong almost exclusively to Trout.

Monday was the second two-homer game for Trout in the last week. Since returning from paternity leave after the birth of his son, Trout has six home runs in seven games. Dad strength, indeed.

In addition to the two home runs Monday, Trout also singled and scored in both the first and third innings. His two-run shot in the fourth inning started the Angels’ comeback from down 9-4. It was one of the best games of Trout’s glorious career.

By Win Probability Added, with Baseball-Reference defines as “the change in probability caused by this batter during the game.” Here are Trout’s five at-bats last night:

  • 1st inning: single, 2 percent WPA
  • 3rd inning: single, 4 percent WPA
  • 4th inning: 2-run home run, 9 percent WPA
  • 6th inning: strikeout, -4 percent WPA
  • 8th inning: tiebreaking home run, 28 percent WPA

Those numbers are rounded. Trout’s WPA for the game was .402, meaning he added 40.2 percent to the Angels’ chances of winning the game, which makes sense given how late his home run was and how it swung the outcome.

That’s the 11th-highest WPA of Trout’s career. His highest-ever WPA was .763, on May 15, 2014 against the Rays, when the Angels were down 5-3 in the ninth inning and Trout hit a walk-off, three-run home run.

Of his 20 two-homer games, Monday night had the second-highest WPA of Trout’s career. By comparison, Trout’s two home runs in last Wednesday’s loss to the Mariners had a .187 WPA.

Mike Trout games with 2 home runs

Date Opponent Box score Outcome 1st HR 2nd HR WPA
Date Opponent Box score Outcome 1st HR 2nd HR WPA
4/17/15 Astros 2-4, 2 R, 5 RBI W 6th (1-1), 2-run HR 8th (3-3), 3-run HR 0.469
8/10/20 A's 4-5, 4 R, 3 RBI W 4th (4-9), 2-run HR 8th (9-9), solo HR 0.402
9/17/15 Twins 2-3, 3 R, 5 RBI W 2nd (2-5), grand slam 4th (8-6), solo HR 0.396
7/10/15 Mariners 3-5, 2 R, 4 RBI W 3rd (0-1), 3-run HR 7th (6-1), solo HR 0.385
6/17/14 Indians 3-5, 2 R, 4 RBI W 5th (2-2), 3-run HR 7th (6-2), solo HR 0.341
8/30/11 Mariners 2-4, 3 R, 5 RBI W 2nd (0-0), solo HR 4th (1-0), 3-run HR 0.340
6/19/19 Blue Jays 3-6, 2 R, 7 RBI W 2nd (1-0), 2-run HR 4th (3-3), grand slam 0.300
9/8/18 White Sox 5-5, 3 R, 5 RBI W 1st (0-0), 2-run HR 3rd (3-1), 3-run HR 0.298
6/12/18 Mariners 3-5, 2 R, 3 RBI L 5th (0-1), solo HR 7th (1-3), 2-run HR 0.297
9/13/14 Astros 3-3, 3 R, 2 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 3rd (1-1), solo HR 0.291
7/8/15 Rockies 2-3, 2 R, 2 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 6th (1-2), solo HR 0.281
7/26/15 Rangers 4-4, 3 R, 5 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 6th (4-2), grand slam 0.259
7/3/19 Rangers 2-5, 2 R, 4 RBI W 3rd (1-0), 3-run HR 6th (4-2), solo HR 0.244
7/7/19 Astros 2-5, 2 R, 4 RBI L 6th (7-4), solo HR 8th (8-8), 2-run HR 0.224
8/5/20 Mariners 2-4, 2 R, 4 RBI L 6th (2-4), 2-run HR 8th (3-7), 3-run HR 0.187
9/29/17 Mariners 2-3, 2 R, 2 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 8th (2-5), solo HR 0.180
7/25/18 White Sox 3-4, 3 R, 4 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 6th (6-2), 3-run HR 0.175
6/11/18 Mariners 2-3, 2 R, 2 RBI L 1st (0-0), solo HR 8th (2-5), solo HR 0.175
8/19/17 Orioles 2-5, 2 R, 2 RBI W 1st (0-0), solo HR 3rd (2-1), solo HR 0.162
4/5/19 Rangers 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI W 6th (1-1), solo HR 8th (2-1), solo HR 0.150
Source: Baseball-Reference

The only two-homer game with a higher Win Probability Added for Trout came on April 17, 2015 against the Astros, when his two-run homer in the sixth inning broke a tie, as did his three-run shot in the eighth in a 6-3 Angels win. That gave Trout a .469 WPA for the game.

Trout’s game on Monday night was close to that, and one of the best games of his career.