As the season has progressed, it has become increasingly obvious that the Angels will not be making an appearance in the 2016 playoffs. They aren't exactly in a state of full rebuild, with five starting pitchers on the DL suggesting that the injury bug has a lot to do with the position the team is currently in. It's a messy situation but it's also a golden opportunity to take advantage of the success of overachievers. Santiago would have been a great candidate at this point in time if he hadn't completely melted down and turned into a pumpkin a month ago (I began writing this on the 15th). Instead, another pitcher has emerged since mid-May to become our bluest chip.
Matt Shoemaker has been both the worst pitcher in baseball and one of the best pitchers in baseball this season...in the span of less than 3 months actually. For a while now, he's been the latter. It has been widely reported that his increased use of the splitter (up to around 40% per game since his start against the Dodgers) has been the reason for his stretch of dominance. He is at 1.4 fWAR, good for third on the whole team, behind only Trout (3.7) and Calhoun (1.8). His FIP of 3.41 and ERA of 4.76 are INCLUDING the Mar/Apr split of a 6.81 FIP and a 9.15 ERA. This isn't even to mention his historic Pedro-tying K sans BB streak and the fact that he has been Clayton Kershaw. There's no question he's been ace-like.
Unfortunately, an ace is not what the Angels need right now. The Angels have younger starters with supposedly higher upside, injured or not, that are supposed to be forming the core of our rotation for the years to come. What they need is offensive reinforcements for this Trout window and the prospect of a 2018 or 2019 playoff run, but they've lacked the movable, controllable pieces that could get them those reinforcements. If they were in the thick of a playoff race or even remotely close to the Wild Card, it would be a good idea to hold onto the Bearded Wonder. This is not the position that the organization has found itself in, however. It's time to restock the barren system.
From my perspective, the question is not if the Angels should trade Matt Shoemaker, but when? Do we trade him now, while we know what we have and while his value is at its highest zenith since the end of 2014? We could run him out there another month until the deadline and hope that it rises even higher. The third option is to wait until the season is over, with a full years' starts and successes under his belt.
If I were Eppler, I would be looking to trade Shoemaker around the deadline. It does appear, thanks to an increase in average velocity on every pitch that he possesses, the unpredictability of his pitch selection, and a drastically improved command of the strike zone, that this run is for real and can be sustained for at least the rest of the season. His trade value will have climbed to a decent enough level to land some more-than-intriguing near-MLB ready pieces. On the other end of the spectrum from trading here and now, the problem with waiting until the end of the season is that we lose the leverage of the playoff race. With the Houston Astros back in the hunt for the Wild Card (I'd really rather we didn't send him over there to form a Lumberjack Tandem with Dallas Keuchel), the White Sox looking for some good pitching to keep their hopes alive, and many other ex-perennial failures with good prospects now in the race, it looks as though it would be ideal to move him while the leverage is in our favor.
One question I keep asking myself is why we wouldn't just keep him if I'm so positive that he can be a true ace. I keep having to remind myself that he's almost 30 years old now. He'll have a good run, but by the time we'll be truly relevant (3 years or so), he'll be close to or over the Rich Hill most likely, and then I'll be damned if we can find someone who will give us salted peanuts for the guy. It's really time we let our hero go while he's still our hero.
Writing this makes me nauseous to be honest. Matt Shoemaker has been a fan favorite for a long time, even on the down months. It's hard for me to imagine parting with such a lovable beard and such a lovable wife's Twitter account, but I would really rather see Shoemaker go and excel with a non-rival contender (maybe even get a championship ring with the Cubs), than watch the Angels wallow in the cellars of the American League West for the 2020s. Let's just take a deep breath, and do what needs to be done.
