Mike Trout is under contract with the Angels for three more seasons. Some would have you beleive that his time in Anaheim will end then. I lay out the reasons why I think he will stay.

Chances are you’ve heard people suggesting that Mike Trout is going to leave Southern California and join the Phillies or Yankees once he hits free agency. Perhaps you have wondered this yourself. As for me, I am continually surprised how often people underestimate the Angels chances of extending Trout. A closer look at the situation shows that the Angels are in a great position to extend Trout long term.

The Angels have the financial resources to resign Trout. Go look at any MLB team’s payroll. It’s unevenly distributed. Most guys make within a few million of the major league minimum. Teams dole out a few contracts north of 10 million and only a select few make in the top tier of 20 million plus. Contracts with an annual salary over 30 million are rare. But Trout is already be guaranteed to make 34 million over the next three years in Anaheim, which means the Angels are already giving Trout top dollar.

Huge spenders who violate the luxury tax are a dying breed, literally. The Yankees don’t spend like they used to since George Steinbrenner died, the Tigers are reining it in since Mike Ilitch’s death. Even the Dodgers are transitioning to the next phase of their ownership’s plan which will see them drastically reduce payroll. So unless your owner is a dying billionaire desperate for a World Series ring before he kicks the bucket or a new ownership group in a major market trying to rehab a brand after the previous incompetent owner ran it into bankruptcy with lavish spending then your team is structuring its payroll to fit within a budget and below the luxury tax.

Don’t get me wrong. Teams will still spend big and keep setting new high water marks in annual player salaries. MLB’s salary structure, which keeps salaries of young players down, will mean owners still have the financial resources to ante up to the high stakes free agency game. But no one operates with unlimited resources.

The Angels are already paying Mike Trout near market value. Let’s not get bogged down over the specific amount of his dollar value. At 34 million Trout’s salary will be among the top of MLB earners. So the Angels won’t have to raise payroll much to extend him. Just commit more years. I’d be worried if the Angels were paying him significantly below market value and they had other contracts soaking up payroll so you couldn’t extend him without raising the payroll above the budget and/or luxury tax. But that’s not the case. .They only need to extend the term.

Believe it or not the Angels have the payroll flexibility to extend Trout. Yes, there are four more years of 25 million plus coming to Albert Pujols and his negative WAR. But other than that and Trout the Angels are not locked into any large contracts. The only other player on a contract longer than two years and a higher than 10 million annual value is Andrelton Simmons.

The challenge will be building a good young but cheap team around Trout. If you are going to hand out mega contracts and you want to remain under the luxury tax but still compete for championships you better have some young cheap talent to fill out your roster. You have to get savings from somewhere. This is an area still in flux for the Angels. This is where a team like the Phillies has an advantage. The Phillies farm ranks in the top 10. Plus they have zero long term salary commitments. If things break their way and their prospects develop they will have a good young cheap team with plenty of salary space to add Mike Trout.

Angles need to develop prospects. The Angels need their prospects like Matt Thaiss, Jahmai Jones, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, among others to develop so they can match teams like the Phillies and offer a competitive team. This also means you can’t trade them all away.

The Angels pitching is getting healthy. We still lack that true ace but we have plenty of good rotation candidates and knock on a big ol’ piece of wood it seems like we may be getting guys healthy. We don’t need all of these guys to pan out. But you can build a solid rotation out of Heaney, Skaggs, Meyer, Richards, Tropeano, Bridwell, Schribner, Shoemarker, and Ramirez.

Arte is still a force. Although he’s been less active since the Josh Hamilton disaster I think we still have an owner who wants to spend and cares about winning. The Angels need a marketable star. With Pujols ageing into oblivion Trout will continue to take center stage for the Angels. Is Arte going to lose Pujols and Trout within a year of each other? I can’t see it happening. Arte loves his stars and he’ll pay to get them or in this case keep them.

Trout is a good guy and will be easy to negotiate with. Although Trout and I are not homies yet I’m confident that he likes Southern California and the Angels Organization. He won’t be challenging to negotiate with. Trout is the coolest dude in the league. He is nice, humble and has a great attitude. This will make an extension more likely.

So rest easy Angels fans the next time someone tries to give you the bad feels about Trout leaving. You’ll have the confidence that Two Seven will be wearing Angel red for a long time.